Conference Championship Preview: The Lone Suspect

Before the 2009 NFL season began, we overviewed the teams known as “The Usual Suspects.” Essentially, these were the five teams at the forefront of NFL glory this decade. Excluding one, these teams each claimed Super Bowl prominence at least once in the past ten years and obtained the league’s most renowned and perennial superstars.

These specific elite teams were the Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, and San Diego Chargers. These organizations virtually dominated the decade in terms of championships. The only Super Bowl champions not on this list were the Baltimore Ravens (‘00-’01) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (’02-’03).

Four of the Usual Suspects have been eliminated from Super Bowl contention this season. The Giants and Steelers failed to even reach the postseason, and both so happen to be the victors of Super Bowl XLII and XLIII, respectively. New England suffered a loss in the Wild Card round to Baltimore two weeks ago, signaling the evident conclusion to the Brady-Belichick dynasty. San Diego’s season came to a screeching halt last weekend due to an inability to score at will as they had all season, two appalling missed field goals by Nate Kaeding (3 were missed in all, but only two were inexcusable. One was a 57-yarder just before the first half expired), and a flummoxing onside kick decision by Norv Turner with 2:14 remaining in the fourth.

With Conference Championship weekend looming, the 2009-10 season can only go one of two directions: It can end with a Usual Suspect closing out the decade in picture-perfect fashion, or it could reveal a changing of the guard. The Colts have emerged as The Lone Suspect now that the dust has settled and Super Bowl XLIV is drawing near; and from what we saw last weekend, they attain the capabilities of doing so.

The Saints, Vikings and Jets are now in position to supplant this decade’s elite and take center stage for next decade’s crop of contenders. Which will prevail, if any? Maybe an NFL Playoff Preview can give us an idea of who has what it takes to punch a ticket to Miami on February 7th. (Picks against spread in parentheses)

Sunday, January 24th, 2010- 3:00 PM ET
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Yes, we’ve heard it over and over and over and over again: The New York Jets are going to run the ball down your throat and play relentless defense. Shonn Greene has emerged as one of the most productive young backs in the league, rushing for 263 yards in two postseason games as a rookie. Because of this, quarterback Mark Sanchez has been in minimal pressure situations and has been able to manage games at a reputable level. The defense has been obliterating the opposition, allowing only 28 points in two postseason games, one being against the electric offense of the San Diego Chargers. We’ve come to realize that the Jets have (and always had) the best defense in the league this season. We just needed to see it proven in the games that mattered most.

And we have. There’s no doubt the Jets have components in place to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender, despite squeaking into the playoffs in the first place. However, teams like these are bound to come to screeching halts. The combination of young leaders (Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene are both rookies), an overconfident rookie head coach and team as a whole, and a wild and unpredictable defense matched up against a quarterback capable of picking the most sound defenses apart can only culminate in the inevitable end to the Jets’ captivating run.

Oh, and the Colts are really good. I mean REALLY good. So good that we don’t even realize how good they are. Despite beating the Ravens last week in a game that may have seemed bland in the box score (20-3), The Colts conveyed qualities reminiscent of the Super Bowl championship team in 2006. Peyton Manning controlled the game in mesmerizing fashion, completing 30 of his 44 passes for 246 yards and 5.6 yards per completion. If those numbers are taking a while to process, realize how many attempts that really is and how low of a yards per completion stat that is. The Colts are the only team capable of controlling clock and time of possession with the passing game, and are one of the few to do it in NFL history.

On top of that, they are competent of scoring a plethora of points in the process. If the Colts jump out to a good lead early, alter the Jets’ gameplan and force Mark Sanchez to make the necessary plays, the Colts will have an effortless road to Miami.

So what’s so reminiscent of the 2006 championship team this postseason?

Defense. In 2006, the Colts were known as the squad with the high-octane offense and no rushing defense to speak of. That postseason, the defense progressed; and once they reached Super Bowl XLI, they were handing the Chicago Bears a 29-17 beating while only giving up 10 points to the Chicago offense, allowing only 11 first downs and forcing five turnovers.

This postseason, the defense is doing the same. They fly around with reckless abandon, obtain a daunting pass rush with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on the edges, and have the experience of playing exceptional defense in big moments. Baltimore’s offense was seemingly unbreakable until they faced the Colts last week and put up a grand total of 3 points. Their most scintillating offensive player, rookie Ray Rice, was held to only 67 yards rushing and fumbled once. Along with Rice, quarterback Joe Flacco struggled as well, recording a dismal 48.4 passer rating.

This week, the Colts face yet another young quarterback and up-and-coming rookie runner combo. The stars may be aligning.

The Pick: Indianapolis 27, New York 10 (Colts -8)

Sunday, January 24th, 2010- 6:40 PM ET
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

Last week, it was Dallas vs. Minnesota. This week, it’s Minnesota vs. New Orleans. The toughest game to figure out has just so happened to coincide with the Minnesota Vikings these last two weeks. And rightfully so, considering the fact that they still have a problem running the ball at an efficient level and have a 40-year old quarterback at the helm.

Nevertheless, the Vikings keep winning and Bret Favre keeps winning them games. He utterly dismantled a hot Dallas team last weekend, completing 15 of his 24 passes for 234 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions. The Dallas defense looked confused and overmatched, and the Vikings did virtually nothing different from what they had done all regular season.

Additionally, the defense gave up only 3 points, held the Dallas rushing attack to only 92 total yards, and sacked Tony Romo 3 times. The defense hasn’t necessarily been Minnesota’s staple this season, but it’s what the Vikings will ultimately need to make a championship run. Jared Allen has shown no signs of slowing down, and the rest of the defensive line is following suit. The Williams tandem in the interior is still the most feared defensive tackle duo in the league, and Ray Edwards displayed a brilliant performance last week on the opposite end of Allen, recording an astonishing 3 sacks and 4 tackles for loss.

From the looks of things, the Vikings have the complete package – A solid defensive unit that can effectively stop the run and get to the quarterback, and the best runningback in the league in Adrian Peterson to complement a potent aerial attack.

However, there’s one crucial aspect in this game that can be easily overlooked. Something that has been lost in the NFL, but is nowhere near lost in New Orleans.

Home field advantage. The Saints unequivocally obtain the greatest home field advantage in the league right now. The vibe is unlike any other NFL stadium, and the crowd is so loud and frenzied that teams have trouble with cadences offensively. The New Orleans defense is nowhere near perfect, but the defensive line has jumps on snap counts to due crowd noise, and the linebackers and secondary feed off crowd energy unlike any team we’ve seen in these playoffs. The New Orleans defense gave up a total of 14 points to the Arizona Cardinals last week – a team that had scored 51 on the Green Bay Packers in the previous week.

Complacency is the only underlying issue when it comes to an overly advantageous home field. The Saints showed it on the opening play from scrimmage last week, allowing Tim Hightower to break free for a 70-yard touchdown run. That was the last big play of the day for the Cardinals. An excessively content mentality may become a factor against Minnesota, but the Saints have already proved that they can overcome the discouraging big plays and regain momentum.

We can throw out all the offensive stats we want, but it won’t do us any good. We already know how explosive the New Orleans offense is. Regardless of Minnesota’s merciless pass rush, the Saints find ways to score and score quickly with Sean Payton calling plays and Drew Brees effortlessly executing the offense. The Vikings may have the tools to be championship-caliber, but it’s seemingly impossible to slow down the Saints in the Superdome at this point. Sometimes stats don’t serve their full due justice.

The Pick: New Orleans 31, Minnesota 24 (Saints -3.5)