It’s also a theory that I haven’t delved into in great depth. Until now.
Since we’ve recently launched a new decade and the NFL has had a trend of Usual Suspects in the last ten years, let’s use the past decade as an example. At this time last season, I felt the Pittsburgh Steelers would fulfill the simple requirements of this theory more effectively than the Arizona Cardinals, and they did. In fact, we can map out the entirety of this decade’s Super Bowl matchups and find a glaring similarity in each and every victor’s box score.
Super Bowl XXXV: Ravens defeat Giants, rush for 101 yards, allow 65 yards rushing.
Super Bowl XXXVI: Patriots defeat Rams, rush for 133 yards, allow 92 yards rushing.
Super Bowl XXXVII: Buccaneers defeat Raiders, rush for 150 yards, allow 19 yards rushing.
Super Bowl XXXVIII: Patriots defeat Panthers, rush for 127 yards, allow 92 yards rushing.
Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots defeat Eagles, rush for 112 yards, allow 45 yards rushing.
Super Bowl XL: Steelers defeat Seahawks, rush for 181 yards, allow 137 yards rushing.
Super Bowl XLI: Colts defeat Bears, rush for 191 yards, allow 111 yards rushing.
Super Bowl XLII: Giants defeat Patriots, rush for 91 yards, allow 45 yards rushing.
Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers defeat Cardinals, rush for 58 yards, allow 33 yards rushing.
The abovementioned Super Bowl champions combine to average a 127-71 ratio in rushing disparity. Moreover, teams that are apt to do this effectively control clock and time of possession, forcing opponents to fall out of their comfort zones and lose the turnover battle as well. Here’s some Super Bowl game factors play into the success of The Championship Philosophy:
First of all, no matter how explosive the two teams may be, the game inevitably begins at a slow pace. Although some big runs or kick returns may be some recent exceptions (Devin Hester returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown in Super Bowl XLI is one example), the game begins with a feeling-out process similar to what you would see in a championship fight. Neither team wants to make any big mistakes early, the teams are adapting to looks they’ve never seen in film due to the extra week of preparation, the Super Bowl ambiance is still setting in and the unavoidable initial game jitters and nervousness are always early factors, especially offensively. Jumping out to early leads or even just getting on the scoreboard in the first quarter is usually a product of the running game.Time of possession is critical in football, but in the Super Bowl is when it becomes most crucial. Teams that rely on big plays and turnovers usually find themselves behind early, attempt the second half resurgence, but ultimately don’t have enough time or firepower to overcome the deficit. If anything, time of possession is the most significant stat next to turnovers in the box score, and the running game is the centerpiece of that battle.
Hence, we have ourselves a history of champions hoisting their Lombardi Trophies due to rushing advantages. The problem this year? The teams playing in Super Bowl XLIV are high-octane passing offenses that don’t obtain apparent advantages on the ground.
The Colts were second in total passing offense this year, the Saints were fourth. Peyton Manning threw for 4,500 yards, Drew Brees threw for 4,388. Brees threw 34 touchdowns, Manning 33. They were both front-runners in the NFL MVP race, and Manning claimed that honor.
On the surface, these teams don’t have the qualities that come with controlling time of possession and executing The Championship Philosophy. However, if you peer behind the façade of one of these teams, more than the obvious pass-oriented endowments emerge.
The Indianapolis Colts are a pass-oriented team. There’s no disputing that. With a quarterback by the name of Peyton Manning at the helm, there’s no reason to stray away from that notion. However, the greatness of Manning and the Colts offense has attributed to the emergence one of the most unique teams we’ve ever seen in the NFL. They reinvent The Championship Philosophy by controlling the game and time of possession with the passing game.This was most evident in the Wild Card round against the Ravens, when Peyton Manning orchestrated an astounding 8-minute long drive that ended at the two minute mark of the second quarter, consisting of nine pass plays and four runs. Manning attains the mesmerizing ability to run the no huddle offense to perfection, all while eating up clock, keeping opposing offenses on the sideline, and scoring in the most opportune moments of a game. In this case, it gave the Colts a 10-3 lead against a team with no 2-minute offense to speak of. The Ravens would eventually punt the ball back and the Colts would stroll into the locker room with a 17-3 halftime lead.
Manning would do virtually the same in the Divisional Round against the Jets, erasing the 17-13 halftime deficit with a quick score to begin the second half. It may not have been the meticulous, drawn-out drive to control clock, but it was the pristine moment to claim the lead and never look back. The drive seemed so effortless that it was practically evident that the Jets had nothing else within their scheme to throw at Manning the rest of the game. Subsequent to that devastating score, the Indianapolis version of The Championship Philosophy manifested, as the Colts won the possession battle and pitched a second half shutout.
Ultimately, the Colts can win any type of game. If it’s a shootout, they’ll outscore you. If it’s a turnover-laden game, they’ll take advantage. If it’s a field position game, they’ll neutralize it and stop you in the red zone. If it’s a grind-it-out, time of possession game, they’ll do it with their short passing game and quietly valuable running game with both Joseph Addai and Donald Brown.
They have the experience, can handle the grind and the abnormal factors that arise within the Super Bowl that require The Championship Philosophy, and attain an imposing defense with exceptional speed and athleticism.
Defense may be the most overlooked aspect of the 2009-10 Indianapolis Colts. It’s a unit strikingly comparable to the 2006-07 championship defense. They play well in the red zone, have unparalleled speed on the defensive line and in the safety and outside linebacker positions, and make plays in the most vital moments. It's tough to fathom how good they could really be if Bob Sanders was in the lineup.They also didn’t receive any high praise or accolades during the regular season, mostly because they didn’t necessarily need the defense to play well to win games or even keep games close. However, the Colts know that defense is part of what makes a championship-level team, and know when to bring it to the table.
In the 2006 regular season, the Colts allowed a league-high 2,768 yards rushing at an atrocious 5.3 yards per carry. Once the playoffs began, they were holding Larry Johnson, Jamal Lewis and Corey Dillon to sub-60-yard rushing totals en route to Super Bowl glory. The regular season totals were an obvious result of complacency due to immaculate offensive success. The Colts are doing so again this season, and this defense is perceivably more daunting than the 2006 squad. They’ve given up only 20 points in two games this postseason after ranking 18th in total defense in the regular season.
Not only does the defense have the experience and cognizance to play big in big moments, the offense obviously does as well. Peyton Manning has been here before. There should be nothing new or out of the ordinary affecting Manning’s play on Sunday, and it’s imminent that he will play at a high level.
It’s hard to believe anything of the contrary. It would unequivocally be the biggest and most shocking disappointment of the 2009-10 NFL season if he choked away Super Bowl XLIV.
Which is why the Colts have the upper hand in the matchup department. There are the factors on the New Orleans side that may swing the vote (or, more precisely, the bet): The fact that the Colts haven’t played a team this postseason that can flawlessly move the ball through the air like the Saints; the fact that the Colts have had some injury and depth issues in the secondary and now on the line with the injured ankle of Dwight Freeney; the fact that the Saints set up a intermittently explosive running game with the pass; and the fact that they have a motivated following unlike any other that is tired of losing and is rebounding from the depths of Hurricane Katrina.
But each of the following dynamics cancel out any advantage on the New Orleans side: Impeccable red zone defense by Indianapolis, the fact that Dwight Freeney is going to play regardless of injury (anyone who knows anything about football knows that a defensive end of his caliber isn’t going to waste an entire season and not play in the Super Bowl), the lack of the home-field advantage luxury for New Orleans, and the fact that the Saints have less secondary depth than Indianapolis and still rely on their defensive scheme rather than personnel. All of this plays into the hands of the Colts, and ultimately into the hands of one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history (if not the greatest).
In reality, the Colts do meet the criteria of The Championship Philosophy. They are capable of running the ball and can stop the run, but they acclimate to situations and opponents on an unprecedented level, reinventing it. Because of this, the 2009-10 Indianapolis Colts have quietly become one of the greatest teams in NFL history.
It may sound like a stretch to say so, but because of the aforementioned attributes, the phenomenal and historical greatness of Peyton Manning, and the fact that this team could arguably be an unblemished 18-0 at this point if they played their starters to end the regular season all convey qualities of a team that could be in future conversations with the greatest NFL teams.All they need to do is win on Sunday, and those entitlements are up for grabs. It’s hard to envision Peyton Manning not lifting the Lombardi Trophy over his head Sunday night in Miami as potentially the greatest quarterback of all time, with one of the greatest teams of all time by his side. It’s only fitting that he does so, and that the decade ends in such fashion.
The Pick: Indianapolis 34, New Orleans 21 (Colts -5)
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