Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Uncap These Presents

It’s that time of year again: Christmas in March.

NFL players are being gift wrapped and sent away to new homes, donning new uniforms, inking new contracts, holding press conferences to express their jubilation, all while the fans begin to analyze how these players will adapt to their new surroundings and benefit their new teams.

The NFL free-agency period is always full of action within the first week, and usually there’s one or two marquee deals in this time frame that leave premier players with lucrative long-term deals. At the surface, the 2010 NFL offseason is seemingly experiencing the normalcy of team-swapping and pen-scratching that comes along with the free-agency period. In all reality, one of the most unique offseasons in NFL history is approaching its peak.

Before we get into the context of what this offseason means for the NFL, let’s get into what free-agency is all about: analyzing signings and transactions.

The biggest splashes of this offseason have obviously taken place in Chicago. Julius Peppers has been brought in to bolster the pass rush, Chester Taylor to expand the running game and complement a promising young runner in Matt Forte, and Brandon Manumaleuna to upgrade blocking at the tight end position within the running game.

However, how much will these moves actually improve the Bears? They reside in a tough division with Minnesota and Green Bay, and the supposed savior in Jay Cutler added yet another year of dreadful quarterback play to the organization last season.

Nevertheless, stemming from these offseason acquisitions, there is some promise in Chicago’s future. The Bears should inevitably reach the top-10 in sacks next season with Julius Peppers rushing the edge (25 sacks in the last 2 years), the offense should improve with the added versatility of Taylor, and newly-added offensive coordinator Mike Martz brings in a system in which quarterbacks have no problem thriving. Average quarterbacks such as John Kitna and Marc Bulger have found success under the gun-slinging offensive scheme Martz employs, so the offense should vastly improve beyond the 17th ranked aerial attack of last season’s squad.

In other words, it’s a make-or-break year for Jay Cutler. The Chicago Bears have made some brilliant moves to compensate for the lack of first or second round draft picks in April in hopes to possibly attain a record above .500 and contend with the Vikings and Packers in the NFC North. However, the season will revolve around Cutler. No matter how successful these recent acquisitions prove to be, Cutler will have to perform at a substantially higher level than his 26-interception output last season for the Bears to be vindicated, and that’s all there is to it.

Some great moves yet not so groundbreaking: Antrel Rolle is an instant upgrade to a New York Giants team that had woeful secondary issues last season. The secondary was in shambles due to injury but the deep ball was poorly defended in all phases. Rolle can play both safety and either of the corner positions, but from what we saw from last season’s appalling safety play (7.4 yards per pass in 2009), Rolle should find himself commanding center field.

Karlos Dansby and his 109 tackles in 2009 will make an immediate impact to the Miami Dolphins and provide leadership qualities as well, Josh Cribbs has received a deservedly restructured deal, Gary Bracket and Vince Wilfork will be staying put in Indianapolis and New England respectively, the Lions have brought it in veteran talent in Nate Burleson and Kyle Vanden Bosch to complement a young core, Dunta Robinson was brought in by Atlanta to improve the secondary, Denver acquired Jarvis Green and Jamal Williams en route to a seemingly complete defensive front on paper, and Thomas Jones was recently picked up by Kansas City to provide durable veteran stability.

The biggest moves of the offseason: Antonio Cromartie and Anquan Boldin making new homes with the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens, respectively.

Boldin brings in the final piece to what seems like a complete offense in Baltimore. Ray Rice proved he can be a proficient rusher and receiver out of the backfield for years to come, the offensive line is solid across the board, and although Joe Flacco failed to portray the expected improvement in production in 2009, he’s still only 25 years old and endured the sophomore slump without much damage. Now he obtains a receiving core that consists of Anquan Boldin, Mark Clayton, Donte Stallworth and possibly Derrick Mason if he doesn’t retire and is re-signed.

The Ravens only gave up third and fourth round draft picks to acquire Boldin, so first and second-round picks used to bring youth to an aging defense is evidently the only move left for Baltimore. With these components in place, the Ravens have become one of the most complete teams in the NFL.

In New York, the Jets made a monumental move to improve their already stalwart defense by acquiring Antonio Cromartie via trade. With Cromartie playing opposite Darrelle Revis in the secondary, the Jets are now as explosive and athletic as ever. Cromartie will undoubtedly see more balls thrown his way and will be able to fly around the secondary with more freedom than he ever had in San Diego. With multiple schemes and blitz packages, Cromartie can now use his speed and ball hawking skills to jump more routes and be more aggressive. Julius Peppers may have been the most prominent free-agent pickup within the first week of the signing period, but it’s exceedingly difficult to imagine any player being in a better position with his new team at this point than Antonio Cromartie. Chalk up another #1 ranked defense for Rex Ryan’s New York Jets in 2010, folks.

What makes these two acquisitions even more interesting is the fact that these players were traded to their new teams. Trades aren’t as prevalent in the NFL as they are in the NBA or NHL, but under the uncapped season, the top eight teams in last year’s playoffs can’t sign a key free agent unless they lose one of their own. In turn, trades have already become more frequent and we could see a multitude of similar transactions leading up to Draft day.

Which brings up the central theme of the 2010 offseason: the uncapped year.

The financial struggle the NFL has faced has forced the organization to commence an uncapped year. Under the previous cap structure, there was a limit to how much money teams could spend on payroll, as well as bottom figure teams were prohibited to submerge beneath. The uncapped year allows teams that have been suffering since the economic downturn to clean up their payroll and either save money or invest in other areas to improve their organizations. In other words, the rich will stay rich, and the lesser will be willing to take the plunge.

On top of that, the free-agent pool has been diluted due to restricted free-agency extending out to players with six years of experience or less, and the fact that this year’s unrestricted free-agent pool is thin of quality talent compared to previous years.

In turn, the market will be less active although the upper echelon of teams with elevated bankrolls have the power to spend at will. Most teams will be staying frugal this offseason, but there’s one thing we didn’t get into when talking about this offseason’s signings – the contracts.

Teams that are willing to spend the money will do so. And they already have.

Julius Peppers was signed to a six-year, $84 million deal with a possible $7.5 million in incentives for a total of $91.5 million, making him the top-paid non-quarterback in the league and one of the highest paid players in NFL history.

The Patriots made Vince Wilfork the highest-paid nose tackle in the league after re-signing him to a five-year, $40 million contract.

Antrel Rolle became the highest-paid safety in NFL history when the Giants signed him to a five-year, $37 million contract.

The Falcons signed Dunta Robinson to a six-year, $57 million deal with $25.5 million in guarantees, becoming the second highest-paid cornerback in the league behind Nnamdi Asomugha, despite never making a pro bowl team or recording more than 2 interceptions in a season since his rookie year in 2004.

Record contracts such as the abovementioned deals are increasingly plausible under the uncapped season. However, abusing the uncapped season is possibly the key factor in the rumor swirls of a 2011 lockout.

A 2011 lockout is more likely in the NBA than the NFL, but the same issues apply. The NBA did so without an uncapped season, but expedited contracts have become one of the league’s biggest downfalls and have created an array of financial issues.

The same could easily happen to the NFL. As top-tier players receive record deals, second-tier players will be looking for their rightful positioning on the monetary totem pole. Moreover, as the contracts go up, so does the guaranteed money—money teams can’t back out of when injuries or other unforeseen issues arise.

The advantage for the NFL is timing. When NBA owners were spending without discipline, they received a rude awakening when the economy took a plunge.

But how are teams that have been suffering the past few seasons going to keep up with the rising contracts when they’re trying to pocket money and pay debts of their own? Players are being released more than they’re being signed this offseason (Redskins releasing nine veterans, veterans such as LaDanian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook and Thomas Jones being cut), and rightfully so. The NFL is a business, and when times get tough, taking advantage of situations like the uncapped year is sometimes the only viable option.

The beauty of the NFL is the abundance of players in the league. Teams with smaller payrolls can still produce the talent and not every player will be vying for larger salaries. Even though a separation of talent may be seen through free-agency, teams still obtain likelihoods to improve through the draft and via player progression through multiple outlets.

But it’s still frightening. The fact that a multi-billion dollar business is in lockout rumors is alarming and nearly unfathomable. The uncapped salary system is designed to stay in place for only one season. If that season is enough to get struggling teams back on their feet, then we as fans have nothing to worry about. The cap will have an upper threshold and the process of dumping salaries will diminish – the way things are supposed to be.

Lucky enough, top dogs like Jerry Jones are sitting back this offseason rather than running amok, and the possibilities of a 2011 lockout are slimmer than many may believe. But again, the mere fact that the rumors are out there is shocking in itself. Like taking Christmas away, an NFL lockout just shouldn’t happen.

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