Revamping The "Elite 5"

Towards the twilight of the 2000s, decade trends within the NFL took shape and the league’s “Usual Suspects” became apparent. Running the football effectively was the key to championship victory, as every Super Bowl champion (excluding the Saints last season) flourished behind bruising running attacks throughout seasons and out-rushed the opposition in every Super Bowl victory.

Additionally, the “Elite 5” headlined the league with exceptional consistency, virtually engraining the notion in every NFL fan’s mind that those five organizations were undoubtedly the shrewdest in the league.

Those organizations were the New England Patriots, Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts, San Diego Chargers and New York Giants. The playoffs featured at least four of the five squads in every season last decade (until last year), and every one of the aforementioned teams (excluding San Diego) won a Super Bowl in that span.

But it feels as though the tide is turning. The 2009-10 season was supposed to round out the decade in trending fashion. It didn’t. The Saints won the Super Bowl as a non-member of the Elite 5; "The Championship Philosophy" failed for the first time since the Titans out-gained the Rams on the ground in Super Bowl XXXIV and lost in dramatic fashion; the league produced a record-setting and jaw-dropping ten 4,000-yard quarterbacks; Chris Johnson dazzled and rushed for 2,006 yards but was the only runner to average more than 100 yards per game; and only three of the Usual Suspects made the playoffs.

Rather than properly book-ending the decade, the 2009-10 season may have given us a preview of the next decade and its possible crop of suspects. However, the inquiry is endless: Has the NFL become a passing-driven league? Have the rule changes in the past few years determined this? Should we just look at which teams have the best quarterbacks and go from there? Is football becoming more finesse? Why is it that Peyton Manning and Drew Brees make everything look so easy that it seems practically unfair? Where do teams like the Steelers, Giants and Patriots stand for next season and the next ten years? Are potent passing attacks such as Indianapolis, New Orleans and Green Bay going to dominate the decade? Or are these spread-the-field passing attacks just another NFL fad destined to fade away, similar to the countless other gimmicky offenses that came and went throughout the league?

It’s tough to answer any of these questions, but we might have somewhat of an idea. One thing is for sure: a new decade calls for a new Elite 5. Only then can we obtain a grasp of what this decade of NFL football has in store for us. To determine the revamped Elite 5, the top-tier teams should fall into each of the following categories:

Solid Current Roster: Some teams have the raw talent or potential to join the new Elite 5, but not the depth or roster balance to sustain consistency or make any playoff noise early in the decade. Some prime Examples: Detroit, Houston. These teams could potentially become Elite 5 sleepers, but we’ll get to that later.

Foundation of the Organization: The unequivocal key to a team’s success in the long-term. Never has a team won multiple Super Bowl titles under dysfunctional team management. Flawless offseason transactions, successful drafts, proper coaching, team chemistry and a dedicated fanbase are all byproducts of how smooth an organization handles its business. Prime examples: Indianapolis, New England, Pittsburgh. Utterly contradictory example: Oakland.

Potential: A few forms of promise can fall into this category. One is “playoff potential,” another is “championship potential,” and the third could be classified as “multiple championship potential.” The first quality designates a team with the viable pieces to get over the playoff hump, the second could possibly be a major attribute of an elite team, and the third assures an elite team. Examples: Despite never winning a title, the Chargers attained championship potential throughout the previous decade because of premier talent and numerous playoff appearances. The Patriots and Colts portrayed the potential to hoist multiple Lombardi Trophies last decade, but only the Pats did so.

Elite Qualities: Superstars, leaders, depth, brilliant coaching, prudent front office, innate devotion to winning, unparalleled fan expectations, and a national consensus of: “no matter what happened last year or the year before, this team knows how to win and opposing teams will always have to account for that.” Essentially, this category is a conglomeration of the three attributes listed prior and effectively places a team in the Elite 5.

So how do we figure out which teams fall under these categories when the new decade of NFL seasons hasn’t even been played? Let’s break it down, positioning teams in four tiers. Each tier gives the teams within it a shot at possessing a slot in the Elite 5, but only five teams have the optimal tools to headline the new decade.

Tier #4: Ousting the Former Elites

New York Giants: The New York football Giants may have prevailed victorious in one of the most historic Super Bowls ever, but the luster of that magical performance in 2007-08 has slowly diminished since. Head coach Tom Coughlin is another average season away from unemployment within the franchise, the offensive line isn’t the force that it was three seasons ago, and the secondary was nothing short of atrocious last season (T-30th in passing touchdowns allowed, 24th in yards per pass attempt). The addition of Antrel Rolle should revoke the majority of those woes immediately this season, but questions still linger on the defensive side. The linebacking core is average at best, and the defensive line is no longer the intimidating strength of the team. Unless Osi Umenyiora regains 2007-08 form, Justin Tuck is all the Giants have when it comes to rushing the passer. That lacking component alone carries great significance, considering the almighty aerial attacks throughout the league. The Giants may have the foundation and championship experience necessary to be an elite team, but the Super Bowl roster of 2008 has since been decimated. Finding replacements in those areas may be too much to ask.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers have been given enough chances, but they deserve justification in these areas: Phillip Rivers is the quarterback, and the AFC West is putrid (to say the least). Despite the Vincent Jackson suspension/holdout to start the season, San Diego has enough offensive firepower to blaze through the likes of Oakland, Denver and Kansas City. But what potential is left when you’re given “Super Bowl potential” status nearly every season? How good is the front office when a coach is ousted following a 14-2 season and literally nothing changes? Twice as a member of the Elite 5, the Chargers earned a first-round bye and lost in the Divisional Round on their home field. Furthermore, the offensive cornerstone of the team when at its utmost success is vying to resurrect his career in New York. Every critical category needs observation before the Chargers can once again be considered elite. Division foes are the only savior.

New England Patriots: Non-elite status manifested in New England in its final game of 2009. Subsequent the Patriots’ loss to the Baltimore Ravens in last year’s Wild Card round, every elite quality took a drastic hit. The front office is never in question, but Bill Belichick is an imperative piece to New England’s foundation. Gradually, his presence as an NFL deity is fading. The fact that he’s the head honcho of the team’s draft process and the last few drafts have panned out horribly is one sign; last year’s infamous fourth-and-two call on Monday Night Football versus the Colts was another; and last season’s culmination might have been the last straw. Every great coach loses his luster at some point, and with more and more coordinators and surrounding pieces leaving for higher opportunities every season, there’s less and less available to pick up the slack.

Finally, Tom Brady is now officially reaching the twilight of his career. (Gasp!) Yes, I said it. Starting this season, Brady will never be the same. He may have a decent year, but time just isn’t on his side. He’s 33 and may not have much in the tank considering his devastating knee injury in 2008, his aura as an NFL icon is slowly diminishing, and the team he’s surrounded by consists of a mere handful of players from the dynasty era. Brady is now three years removed from his career peak when he threw for 50 touchdowns. Maybe I’m crazy, but the back end of his career seems imminently within the vicinity of this season.

Tier #3: Elite 5 Possible Sleepers

San Francisco 49ers/Houston Texans: What these teams have in common unquestionably prohibits them from entering elite territory. They both have nice pieces, but carry a lot of “ifs.” It seems as though every year the Texans are everybody’s sleeper before the start of the season. The roster is always riveting, especially now that Matt Schaub has a season under his belt as the starter and threw for a league-high 4,770 yards in the process. But the preposition every Texans sleeper selector uses goes a little something like this: “If they can put it together… (insert prediction).” The Texans have yet to prove they can put it together. Until they do, potential is all they have.

San Francisco’s success hinges on one “if”: If Alex Smith is truly the answer at quarterback. If not, the 49ers have another extensive process on their hands. The second half of last season entailed that Smith has the tools, but it remains unclear if he can put it together for an entire season. Last year wasn’t particularly convincing considering his single-season passer-ratings were an abysmal 40.8, 74.8 and 52.7 in his first three NFL seasons. Frank Gore, the defense as a whole, and a newfound organizational foundation are some worthy aspects to rave about, but overall team potential and hype seem to make us forgetful of things like Smith’s establishment as an NFL quarterback. It also makes us forget that the “Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection” is something a team should never want to be entitled with. So without further ado, congratulations to the San Francisco 49ers, who are the official recipients of this coveted award for the offseason/preseason of 2010. You now join the 2009 Houston Texans, 2008 Cleveland Browns, 2007 New York Jets, 2006 Miami Dolphins and 2005 New Orleans Saints in this category. Enjoy your season of inexplicable disappointment.

Tier #2: Elite 5 Contenders

Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota seemingly has all the tools to be elite, with one caveat: Brett Favre will retire one of these years. When that happens, the roster and its championship potential will take a crucial hit unless Sage Rosenfels or (gulp) Tarvaris Jackson can successfully fill his shoes. The defense is what makes this team an elite contender, but the offense will be in question once Favre departs. If anything, the offense is already in question with Sidney Rice out following hip surgery and Percy Harvin’s migraine issues.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The foundation is permanently set in stone in Pittsburgh, which gives the team an exponential advantage when determining elite status. Despite Ben Roethlisberger’s 4-game suspension to start the season, he’s a 2-time Super Bowl champion capable of single-handedly rebounding from a 1-3 or 2-2 record. The offensive line is a clear predicament and will need to be handled before the Steelers can make Super Bowl noise once again, and the only quality potential this team has going forward is in Rashard Mendenhall. Solid defense, consistent coaching and an admirable organizational foundation will always produce better-than-expected team records (including this season), but offensive uncertainties and the Roethlisberger media swirl is enough to put the Steelers on the Elite 5 fence.

New Orleans Saints: Only one question arises when ascertaining New Orleans’ elite status: Can the Saints prove that lightning can strike in the same spot twice?

If they do, they’re more than deserving of elite status. No degradation towards the Saints, but everything that could go right for them in last year’s postseason, well, did go right. It was destiny. There’s absolutely no dispute that the offense itself is elite, but what about the defense? One alarming 2009 defensive statistic is the takeaways. New Orleans was second in the league with 38 total takeaways last season. How is this alarming? The team relied too heavily on them. Outside of those forced turnovers, the team allowed 235 passing yards per game (26th), 122 rushing yards per game (21st), allowed 12 yards per reception (26th), and thrived off a great scheme orchestrated by defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. The Saints didn’t necessarily obtain daunting run-stopping personnel or shutdown defensive backs. If the scheme continues to succeed, the Saints shouldn’t falter as the defending Super Bowl champs. However, it’s asking a lot from them when repeating in the NFL is nearly unfeasible and an NFC South champion has never repeated since the division’s inception in 2002.

Tier #1: The Elite 5

Dallas Cowboys: This is by far the most debatable team within the Elite 5. Tony Romo is obviously the enormous uncertainty of the team when it comes to being elite. He’s shown some flashes of greatness in his career thus far, but has never been consistent enough to be mentioned in the Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers (newest addition) class. What the Cowboys do have: quality personnel to compensate for below-average coaching, and an owner dedicated to winning and spending money. The team’s current roster and foundation is competent of reaching the Super Bowl with an average quarterback, which makes Tony Romo’s running legacy exceedingly intriguing. Once Romo gets over that hump (if ever), the Cowboys will be at the forefront of the league. Every other elite quality on this team is indisputable.

Green Bay Packers: Green Bay will be following its quarterback into elite status. Aaron Rodgers threw for 4,434 yards last season, with a 103.2 passer rating and 30 touchdowns. His leadership and perseverance qualities have proven to be of the best in the league considering his commendable composure throughout the Brett Favre debacle two seasons ago. Now the weapons surrounding him have become endless, and the other side of the ball is vastly improving. Dom Capers’ 3-4 zone defensive scheme caters to free-flowing players such as AJ Hawk and Charles Woodson, and has proven to be an exasperating defense for some of the league’s elite quarterbacks (most notably: Peyton Manning. However, this could be another defense he’s finally beginning the figure out. Although it was just the preseason, the Indy/Green Bay match-up was a barnburner). If the running game improves to above average in the coming years, this team may be impossible to hinder. Championship potential is through the roof in Green Bay.

Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore has the running game (Ray Rice, impeccable offensive line); the defense (third in total defense last season); the coaching; the foundation; solid quarterback play; depth (additions of Anquan Boldin, Donte Stallworth); loads of potential both offensively and defensively (Ray Rice, Haloti Ngata); and superstar qualities (Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed). To put it simply, the Ravens are the most well-rounded team in the league. That alone is enough to grant elite status.

New York Jets: The Jets obtain select traits from each of the elite teams listed prior. A quarterback uncertainty in Mark Sanchez (for youth reasons rather than playoff inconsistency reasons), potential in significant areas (Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Dustin Keller, Kyle Wilson), a plethora of superstar figures and leaders (Darrelle Revis, Nick Mangold, Bart Scott, Kris Jenkins, Antonio Cromartie, Santonio Holmes, LaDanian Tomlinson), and a newfound solidified foundation under Rex Ryan along with an influential Jets coaching staff. Most of all, the Jets abide by The Championship Philosophy unlike any other team in the league right now. They led the league in rushing attempts (607) and yards (2,756) last season, portraying team dedication in clock management and brutalizing defense (#1 ranked defense in 2009). In looking at the big picture, this team hasn’t proven much beyond a surprising playoff run last season, but it’s difficult to envision this team not reaching prominence with the pieces it has in place.

Indianapolis Colts: A no-brainer. The only team capable of reinventing The Championship Philosophy is the only team with the tools to be a member of two consecutive Elite 5 assemblies. Peyton Manning is still there and showing no signs of slowing down, the receiving core will provide more depth with the return of Anthony Gonzalez this season, and Bob Sanders will make an immediate impact on the defensive side of the ball in his return from injury. Manning’s remaining shelf life could be an issue further into the decade, but the prospect of him having a long career is much more likely considering the fact that defenders touch him about three times a season. In this case, the quarterback is packaged with the foundation. As long as Peyton Manning is in Indianapolis, the Colts are elite. So much for endless inquiry.