The Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection

The Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection. If you’re a regular reader on this site, you know what it is. If you know what it is, you know it’s not something an NFL team should intentionally strive for in any particular season. If not, here’s a definition for you:

The team with the most impressive second half in the season preceding and/or promising projections based on that season, resulting in excess hype and breakout expectations. In turn, that team ensues a season of inevitable and inexplicable disappointment.

Based on my calculations, it’s happened every year since 2005. It could have happened in previous years, but the teams placed in this coveted category within the past five years demonstrate this trend most evidently. Although this phenomenon has been brought up multiple times here, the details of it haven’t been completely elucidated in order to validate it as a legitimate common occurrence. There’s no perfect time than now.

2005 New Orleans Saints –The team originally broke the scene in 2000, when quarterback Aaron Brooks came off the bench and led the Saints to a Wild Card round victory over the defending Super Bowl champion St. Louis Rams. “Breakout potential” hovered over the franchise every year following, and New Orleans never made it back to the playoffs. The 2004 Saints paved the way for this trend when they ended the season on a 4-game winning streak. The Saints generated “breakout team” buzz for four solid years previous, unaware of what would eventually transpire because of the surge in 2004. The team finally self-destructed in 2005, as Aaron Brooks fell off the face of the earth (13 touchdowns, 17 interceptions; was out of league after his half-season stint in 2006 with the Raiders), and the devastation of Hurricane Katrina hit (demonstrating the inexplicable aspect of this phenomenon). Jim Hasslett was jettisoned as the head coach and the Saints commenced a rebuilding process. By 2005, the conception of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection was secretly apparent.

2006 Miami Dolphins – Nick Saban concluded his first season as an NFL head coach with a 6-game winning streak in 2005. The team was full of promise: New life with a new head coach and seemingly invigorated atmosphere; a rookie running back in Ronnie Brown generating 907 yards of rushing production; Ricky Williams rushing for 743 yards subsequent his (first) sabbatical; an outstanding defensive cast in retrospect (although in its twilight in retrospect), all while a pedestrian quarterback (Gus Frerotte) commanded the offense. The team had nowhere to go but up. Or so it seemed.

Ricky Williams kicked off the 2006 season with his second substance abuse suspension and was forced out of football, followed by the promising Daunte Culpepper signing in the offseason. However, Culpepper wasn’t completely healthy following major knee surgery and struggled with his previously nifty mobility. Joey Harrington eventually stepped in, and it was over from there. The team hyped up to represent its home-field in the Super Bowl ended the season with a 6-10 record, 20th ranked offense and deteriorating defensive stars. Saban was ousted immediately after the season, as the Dolphins turned the conception into a trend.

2007 New York Jets – Eric Mangini’s first head coaching stint in 2006 (a season in which he was prematurely dubbed the “Mangenius”) culminated in a surprising 2006 Wild Card appearance. Chad Pennington showcased a poignant season, earning Comeback Player of the Year honors subsequent his second rotator cuff surgery. The Jets were ostensibly a team on the rise, but plummeted to 4-12 in 2007. Pennington performed terribly to start the season, as the Jets went 1-7 until he was benched. The team ultimately finished the season with a 26th ranked offense and Eric Mangini’s reputation as a head coach has remained horridly irreparable since.

2008 Cleveland Browns – The 2007 Browns finished an enthralling season in a tie for the AFC North crown, but lost the tiebreaker to the Steelers and were knocked out of the playoffs entirely. Cleveland exhibited one of the most dynamic offenses in the league, producing ungodly numbers in comparison to customary Browns teams – 3,787 yards passing, 29 touchdowns and a Pro Bowl appearance by Derek Anderson; 16 touchdown catches and a Pro Bowl selection for Braylon Edwards; over 1,000 receiving yards and Pro Bowl season by Kellen Winslow; 1,304 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns by Jamal Lewis – ultimately blending together nicely as an eighth-ranked NFL offense.

2008 required high expectations, and the organization reacted by re-signing Anderson to a 3-year, $24 million deal, signed Donte Stallworth, traded for Shaun Rodgers to bulk up the defensive side, and re-signed Lewis to ensure offensive potency in all phases.

The acquisitions and re-signings produced all but nothing, as Anderson was benched for Brady Quinn halfway through the season and the Kellen Winslow debacle took a life of its own. Winslow pleaded for a restructured contract before the season and was perpetually unhappy with the organization and GM Phil Savage; had issues with “staph infection;” received a one-game suspension following a loss to the Redskins midway through the season after lashing out at Savage, and brought the organization down with him. Amid the turmoil, Braylon Edwards was cementing his legacy has a notorious pass-dropper (went from 16 touchdown catches in ’07 to 3 in ’08), and the Browns descended from eighth in total offense in 2007 to 31st in ’08. Unsurprisingly, Romeo Crennel would not return as head coach of the team.

Just for kicks, take a look at this ESPN.com panel of NFL writers team preview for the 2008 Browns (Most notably, outlooks by Tim Graham and Matt Mosely).

2009 Houston Texans – Houston won five of its last six games in 2008 and was immediately projected as a 2009 breakout team. It reeked of Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection stench, as copious hype escalated to the inordinate. The Texans began the year 5-7, resurged to win its final four games, but failed to make the playoffs. For the first time, a team with a winning record met the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection criteria. The final four games of last season have seemed to carry over into this season, and the Texans seem like a legitimate team; but 2009 Houston undoubtedly sustained the trend.

And now we’re here. Prior to the 2010 regular season, one team received more “breakout team” hype than the rest. Granted, the hype appeared legitimate at the time, considering the circumstances. But just four weeks into the season, one team is already suffering the detriments and is worthy of the entitlements. The team? The San Francisco 49ers.
Head coach Mike Singletary’s first full season with the 49ers in 2009 brought a fresh and unquestionably necessary ambiance to San Francisco. Before his arrival, the team was in shambles and carried a vibe of instilled ambivalence to defeat. The team had suffered six straight losing seasons, collected a plethora of high first-round draft picks, and restructured personnel and coaching staffs multiple times until the team’s demise was concurrent with the atrocities across the bay.

We all know how Singletary eventually flipped the script: by kick-starting Vernon Davis’ career and uplifting a team with absolutely no previous incentive. Frank Gore put up huge numbers (1,120 yards rushing, 10 touchdowns, 4.9 yards per carry, 52 catches, 406 yards, 3 touchdowns receiving in 14 total games; Pro Bowl selection), Vernon Davis lit up the scoreboard (78 catches, 965 yards 13 touchdowns), Alex Smith portrayed promise in the second half of the season (produced a career-high 81.5 passer rating; threw 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; started the final 10 games of the season), and the defense began to take shape as one of the best in the league (15th ranked, but allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league; fifth in total turnovers; profited from the solidification of Patrick Willis as a top-tier defensive player along with the likes of Troy Polamalu, Darrelle Revis, Ed Reed, Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware and Nnamdi Asomugha; and obtained a stout overall foundation on the defensive side). The team had potential in just about every phase on paper. Then the buzz started to grow.

San Francisco kicked off the offseason by drafting two offensive linemen in the first round. It might not have been flashy, but it didn’t deter the resounding fan approval and “The last time a team drafted two offensive linemen in the first round was the Jets in 2006, and look how Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson turned out!” exclamations.

The lofty predictions began to pour in, as fans were being gradually convinced that Alex Smith was a reputable quarterback and that the division was going to be a cakewalk. The Niners had an inevitably easy road to success and the inevitable pieces to make it happen.

Then the season started, and now the inevitabilities have clearly diminished. The Seahawks trounced them in week one with gusto. New Orleans finally took victory in the final minutes in week two after San Francisco attempted to give the game away three times previous. In week three, Kansas City walked all over them the same way Seattle did and it resulted in Singletary firing his offensive coordinator (when your team fires its offensive coordinator three weeks into the season, chances are, your season is over. Maybe Alex Smith's 66.1 passer rating and 7 interceptions through four games should be taken into consideration). Last week, Atlanta defeated the hapless 49ers by a last-second field goal following Roddy White’s strip of Nate Clements on what should have been a game-sealing interception. All in all, nothing has gone right for the 49ers this season, and that’s what happens when you’re the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection. One minute you’re the runaway favorites to win the horrendous NFC West, the next minute you’re 0-4.

If there’s one team that can reverse the trend and rebound from a murky start, it’s this year’s selection. San Francisco’s next three games are home against the Vick-less Eagles, home against Raiders, and at the Carolina Panthers of the NFL’s cellar. Moreover, the NFC West is still putrid. The Rams are beginning to show consistency and the Seahawks may easily be the best of the bunch when playing at home, but the best team in the division is nowhere near apparent. If the preseason potential is still lingering somewhere in San Francisco, the 49ers aren’t completely out of the picture.

Even so, the team has started off the season with a winless record. The only team that has ever made the playoffs after starting 0-4 was the 1992 San Diego Chargers. To augment the pressure, this Sunday night has become a must-win for the Niners. No team has ever started a season 0-5 and gone on to make the playoffs. Much to the contrary of preseason prospects, this team is playing for the salvation of its season in week five. Considering the altered circumstances, outlooks are exceedingly grim.

With abundant hype comes overblown expectations. With overblown expectations comes a shocking collapse, regardless of how auspicious the perceived situation may be. That’s just how the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection works. It’s become a true NFL entity, and the 49ers are just one of the many victims. Once this season is over, they’ll be able to get through it; then a new “breakout team” will unwillingly follow suit. Just be careful what team you hype up next.