Conference Championship Preview: Too Good To Be True?

We’re going to approach this playoff preview a little differently. At this point, considering the circumstances of this specific NFL season and the match-ups we’ve been presented with this week, everything is based on feel. Instincts and big-picture perspectives are the optimal ways of dissecting a conference championship slate full of the same parity we witnessed all season. Moreover, the teams playing one another have already faced this season; and, in Green Bay and Chicago’s case, twice over. Not much should fool us, and no stat will sway us. This is where teams parlay their championship qualities into championship results. This is where we sift through what we can ultimately trust, and what we truly can’t.

This is where we build on a 6-2 playoff record against the spread. (Picks against spread in parenthesis.)

Sunday, Jan. 23rd, 2011- 3:00 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

What not to trust: Simple. Jay Cutler. When Cutler plays like a poor man’s Brett Favre, his teams lose. When he plays like a top-tier NFL QB, his teams win. The Bears have the pieces offensively (a good blend of downfield receiver threats and possession guys, a reliable running back, a sure-handed tight end) to accommodate Cutler. The only problem is in his offensive line, which is probably the worst possible weakness to have surrounding him. If the Packers bring pressure with their 3-4 zone scheme and find ways to get to Cutler, he’ll do the inevitable and hand Aaron Rodgers opportunities. He essentially hasn’t played in a legitimate playoff game yet (8-9 Seattle doesn’t really count), so this will be his first big test. A poor man’s Brett Favre in his first ever playoff game, which also doubles as the most legendary rivalry game in NFL history, against the NFL’s current hottest team? Not so trustworthy.

What to trust: Simple. Aaron Rodgers. He’s the best quarterback left in the playoffs right now, and inched his way one step closer to the tier-one elite quarterback echelon with Saturday night’s 31-36, 366-yard, three passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown performance in Atlanta against the one-seeded Falcons. He’s simply playing better than any other quarterback in the NFL would be right now, even if the Patriots, Colts and Saints were still playing. He plays with absolutely no fear, supreme confidence and composure, flawless accuracy, an intelligent knack of pocket elusion, and a swagger-coated killer instinct. When John Abraham got to Rodgers early in the third quarter last Saturday night (1 of only 2 sacks surrendered by the Green Bay offensive line), he felt the urge to imitate Rodgers’ signature taunt of displaying his heavyweight title belt. As the cameras shot back to Rodgers, it was evident that he caught a glimpse of Abraham’s charade. Ten plays later, Rodgers had marched his team inside the Atlanta 10-yard line. On the final play of the drive, he slipped out of the pocket, raised a pump fake towards the endzone, and proceeded to will himself over the goal line for a self-served touchdown. Once the referees broke their huddle and confirmed the touchdown, Rodgers looked up towards the Atlanta crowd, pointed directly at his imaginary belt, and established that he was the only being worthy of flaunting the gold around his waist. That’s a quarterback teammates could bet their personal lives on, not to mention lead them to a victory.

The Pick: Green Bay 30, Chicago 21 (Packers -3.5)

Sunday, Jan. 23rd, 2011- 6:30 PM ET
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

What not to trust: Pittsburgh’s offensive line. It’s been shaky all season and absolutely putrid in spurts. Rashard Mendenhall has perfected his role as the runner with the most lateral quickness in the NFL because of it, and Ben Roethlisberger has maneuvered his way out of the pocket more than ever before. At this point in the season, games are predominantly won in the trenches, and The Championship Philosophy is most prevalent. Pittsburgh allowed the eighth-most sacks this season (Chicago allowed the most, which is another aspect to not attain trust in), and was only eighteenth in yards per rushing attempt. Against a Jets team that loves to pressure the quarterback and thrives when teams succumb to their style by grinding games out with long drives, the Steelers may be in more trouble than they're ready for. Lack of deep coverage skills by the Jets would’ve been key in this game if it weren’t for their stellar performance against Tom Brady last week, so the battle in the trenches will be key. A battle in which the Steelers are woefully outmatched.
What to trust: The coaching. The defense. The belief. The passion. The us-against-the-world-mentality. The Championship Philosophy. The New York Jets.

The Pick: New York 23, Pittsburgh 20 (Jets +3.5)

What you may not know about these games is that their ramifications go far beyond a Super Bowl bid. Before this season, we laid out a handful of potential new “Elite 5” members, which would represent the five teams at the forefront of the upcoming decade. We singled out some members from the previous decade, identified two possible sleepers, were mindful of the contenders, and then formed a new “Elite 5” constituency. Those members were chosen based on four simple qualities: Solid Current Roster, Foundation of the Organization, Potential, and Elite Qualities. Why is this well-calculated, yet premature assembly of forthcoming vanguards significant? Because two of the teams are featured this weekend and could very likely face one another in Super Bowl XLV: The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets.

Preceding the season, I made this Super Bowl prediction via twitter. There’s no turning back now. I felt the “Elite 5” would emerge early, and it’s already here. The stars are aligning, and the game itself would unequivocally draw the most attention and compel the most fans.

For the Packers, their road has been somewhat topsy-turvy, yet the outcome has ultimately matched the expectations. Despite injury, Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFL with the hottest quarterback. It wasn’t an easy road, however, losing games early in the season to Washington and Miami, then hitting another skid late in the season against Detroit and New England without Aaron Rodgers. But they won two critical games to finish the season and make the playoffs, and the defense perpetually progressed as the season moved forward, using a patented, athletic zone scheme that caters to players such as Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews. Matthews has now become the one player on the defensive side of the ball (besides Troy Polamalu) that is just as fun to watch singularly as the play itself. He’s always on high gear, whether he’s bull-rushing an offensive tackle (his greatest strength), spinning inside off his blocker, pursuing the quarterback at full-speed off a stunt, dropping back in coverage, or chasing down a ball carrier (with the ability to cause a turnover). He’s the full package playing outside linebacker in a 3-4 defensive scheme. He’s the anchor that supports other players such as AJ Hawk and Desmond Bishop. He’s the heart and soul of a defense that includes Charles Woodson and B.J. Raji, and consistently improving entities such as Cullen Jenkins and Tramon Williams. And now, the Packers obtain the elite defense they seemed to have on paper before the season started. We already know what the offense portrays (see above), but the defense is what has secured the Packers as a legitimate “Elite 5” member and Super Bowl contender. With leaders like Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews on opposite sides of the ball, this already talented team is a nearly unstoppable machine.

For the Jets, their road has been somewhat unconventional. It started before the season in the eyes of fans with a thrilling season of “Hard Knocks” on HBO, which showed all of us the passion of Rex Ryan, the will of LaDanian Tomlinson, the wit and youthful humor of Mark Sanchez, the continuity of the coaching staff, and the overall team commitment to strive for something special. It was there. You could feel an eerie sense of high expectations for themselves, as well as one another, without any forms of tension or edginess. New York operated its season by winning a multitude of close games, but found ways to win regardless. It may not have looked flashy or dominant, but it’s a favorable way to prepare for playoff football. Without those games, Mark Sanchez couldn’t be believed in, the final minute of the Wild Card round versus the Colts would have been a daunting task, and the defense wouldn’t have vastly improved despite injures in the deep secondary. Aside from portraying the utmost aspects of The Championship Philosophy, the Jets now attain intangible qualities that other teams couldn’t have possibly come close to generating this season. Bart Scott said he would die for his coach if it came down to it (try to find another coach who any NFL player would say that about with as much raw conviction); Mark Sanchez is making game-clinching throws with absolute poise; LaDanian Tomlinson is playing with more fire than he ever has in his career; Shonn Greene is making his annual playoff appearance; Braylon Edwards isn’t dropping a single pass; Santonio Holmes is doing what he always has in key playmaking moments; Darrelle Revis is reminding us that his island is still desolate and thou shalt be cursed if one steps on the sands belonging to the greatest cornerback in the NFL; Antonio Cromartie is making game-changing plays; lesser names such as Eric Smith are making themselves resoundingly known, and the list goes on and on and on. The Jets eventually took on the highest level of their persona last week after defeating the Patriots, which is brash cockiness and the mentality to not just go out and win, but make a statement in the process. It’s “Us Against the World,” yet they’re concurrently one of the best teams in the NFL. Somehow the Jets find themselves in an auspicious position that no team in the league could possibly obtain a comparable grasp of. That position is one that stands alone within the confines of the elite.
Is it too good to be true? A preseason Super Bowl XLV prediction coming to life? Two predicted “Elite 5” members materializing at its conception? Two 6-seeded playoff teams in the Super Bowl for the first time in NFL history? This is for all you non-believers.

Can't wait.