NFL Playoff Preview: All About the Divisional Round

How ironic is it that two of the most prominent AFC divisional rivalries are being featured in the “Divisional” round? The 2010-11 NFL season has been one of parity, big stages and tight races. Thus far, the Wild Card round couldn’t have transpired more appropriately, and the Divisional round slate appears as compelling as ever. If you’re searching for significance or incentive to pay attention this weekend, you may have to get your head examined. Without further ado, let’s find out what this season’s Divisional round playoff match-ups are all about.

Saturday, Jan. 15th, 2011- 4:30 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

We all know how these teams make their names, no need to throw in season stats.
These teams are 7-7 against one another since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season in 2004, and the one time these teams faced in the playoffs with similar squads, the Steelers prevailed 24-13 and advanced to the Super Bowl.

In short, Ravens/Steelers match-ups are excruciatingly difficult to gauge. Every game is close, nearly every game is low scoring, and every game inevitably showcases big hits and memorable moments on a relatively marquee stage. It’s virtually the same game every time, excluding distinctive highlights and the precise final score. We all know what to expect.

What we can expect to fall outside historical norms is the personnel these specific teams utilized this season. On the Baltimore side, Ray Rice hasn’t been the effective machine he was last season, and he may have to resurrect the facets that made him that very instrument last season for the Ravens to advance to the AFC Championship. Joe Flacco may have a much deadlier receiving core this season compared to last, and the Baltimore wideouts proved so with key plays in both games versus Pittsburgh this season. However, fourth quarter offense will be exceedingly critical in this Saturday’s contest.

The Ravens have blatantly struggled with their fourth quarter offense this season, giving up leads with precariously over-conservative game plans. When you think “conservative” you may think monotonous run plays. However, the Ravens have problems getting anything going at all. If anything, as they proved earlier this season with Troy Polamalu’s strip-sack, Baltimore doesn’t run the football effectively enough to contain leads.

The glitches began in week six against New England when they relinquished a 20-10 fourth quarter lead and eventually lost 23-20 in overtime; continued in week 12 at Tampa Bay when they managed to win 17-10 despite a scoreless second half; exacerbated two weeks later when Houston forced overtime on Monday Night Football despite trailing the Ravens 28-7 in the third quarter, and rendered epitomical the week prior with Polamalu’s strip-sack in a 13-10 Sunday Night Football loss to Pittsburgh despite leading 10-6 in the final four minutes. Overall, this game will likely come down to which team plays best in the final minutes, which means it’s…

All about the quarterbacks. The Baltimore play calling in the finals minutes is far beyond the aberration stage, trend stage, and even the problem stage. If they win, it will be because Joe Flacco played phenomenally enough for the Ravens defense to sustain a lead. With a glaring concern in place for them and Ben Roethlisberger under center on the opposing side, those circumstances are tough to envision. Roethlisberger has already proven his competency in the month of January, and in a game like this, a proven entity is much more likely to prevail. Combine that with Pittsburgh’s own lethal receiving core (Mike Wallace and a crew of young depth, which attains advantages against Baltimore’s uncertain cornerbacks), the Steelers obtain enough auspiciousness to widen the narrow gap between these two teams.

The pick: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 13 (Steelers -3)

Saturday, Jan. 15th, 2011- 8:00 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

The Championship Philosophy plus home-field advantage plus a bye week equals a win, right?

Well, you might have to think again when assessing the Atlanta Falcons. They’re 26th overall this year in yards per rushing attempt (3.8 yards). Secretly, the Falcons aren’t just an overrated running team, they’re sub-par. On the other side of the football, Atlanta was 22nd in overall passing defense this regular season.

Essentially, Atlanta needs to be great at the two things they weren’t great at all season to beat Green Bay this Saturday night. The Falcons will need to control clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, as well as defend the pass once he does come off the sidelines. Moreover, the Falcons attempted the second-most third downs in the NFL this season. Teams converted on third down against the Packers 36.2% of the time, which was ninth in the NFL. Culminating those dynamics with the most first downs achieved by penalty (42 total), the Falcons are appearing to be more and more of an aberration than anything else. The home crowd may help, but is Matt Ryan truly ready to step up in those types of pressure situations on a big stage against a surging Packers team? The variables are starting to add up.

Atlanta wins its games and forms its identity by winning the turnover battle (+13, first in the NFL), but Green Bay is fourth in takeaways and second in interceptions. Those aspects may be a wash. But one thing isn’t a wash, because this game is…

All about Aaron Rodgers. He’s the clear-cut difference-maker. He’s the one with the ability to blow this game wide open and make the Packers a Super Bowl contender. With a running game now miraculously present in his backfield, he may start verging on the unstoppable. This game and the rest of the postseason could very well be the difference between his place in the second tier of quarterbacks (which now only consists of Philip Rivers and Rodgers himself) and the top tier (Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning). That’s a divergent discussion in itself, but we’ll save that for another day.

The pick: Green Bay 27, Atlanta 21 (Packers +2.5)

Sunday, Jan. 16th, 2011- 1:00 PM ET Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Although these teams played one another way back in week six, the same weaknesses Seattle exploited in that game will be needed once again to pull a second consecutive upset. Obviously, Bears quarterback Jay Cutler will be the pivotal factor in this one (a combined 9 interceptions in Chicago’s 5 losses this season), and the offensive line will need to prolong its improvement and keep him protected. The Seahawks aren’t a particularly great pass rushing team (13th in the NFL this season), don’t necessarily attain many ball hawks (12 total interceptions on the season, tied for 25th overall), and their unreliable pieces (i.e., Marcus Trufant) may open things up for Cutler. The Bears are an improved team since the last match-up on October 17, so advancement to the NFC championship game looks promising. However, this game is…

All about the uncertainty. What if Jay Cutler does reproduce one of those stinkbombs? A Jay Cutler in his first playoff game is possibly the riskiest Jay Cutler you could ever ask for. Furthermore, the Seattle Seahawks are seemingly on a run of great familiarity.

Stop me when this sounds familiar: NFC West team; first-round upset victory with all the momentum in the world; experienced quarterback; no signs of playoff-quality potential during the regular season yet played with supreme confidence once they arrived; a we-have-absolutely-nothing-to-lose mindset…
Yes, this is too reminiscent of the Arizona Cardinals two years ago. If the Seahawks weren’t in the NFC West, I’d think differently. Intermingling a risky quarterback with memorably palpable and intangible similarities is too much to account for to lay ten points. The 2008 Cardinals may have taught us all something.

The pick: Chicago 24, Seattle 20 (Seahawks +10)

Sunday, Jan. 16th, 2011- 4:30 PM ET
New York Jets at New England Patriots

Here comes the trash talking again. But it’s all in the way the Jets carry themselves both on and off the field. Without it, Mark Sanchez would play apathetically, Braylon Edwards wouldn’t catch any passes, LaDanian Tomlinson wouldn’t be as psyched up after every ten-plus yard run, and the defense wouldn’t play with vital reckless abandon. That’s what New York has in its favor: purely invaluable intangibles.

At the same time, the last Tom Brady you’d like to face is a fired-up Tom Brady. If there’s a player in the NFL with near-equivalent Kobe Bryant characteristics, it’s Brady. As he’s shown on multiple occasions this season (particularly on Sunday Night Football in Pittsburgh in week 10), Brady hasn’t lost one bit of competitive fire. As much as I despise the Patriots as a Raiders fan, I vastly regret removing the Patriots from the “Elite 5” and deeming Brady’s career in flux. He just generated his second-best statistical season, and is possibly playing the best football of his career at age 33, considering the weapons in his arsenal. He uses the tools he obtains (multiple talented yet unproven tight ends, possession receivers with no explosiveness, pass-catching running backs) like no other quarterback. The offense Brady has perfected this season is the exact formula the Patriots used to win three Super Bowls in the current Brady-Belichick era. Fuse that with the ideal climax (New England has scored at least 30 points in its final eight games), the Patriots are not only primed to win this Sunday, but throughout the month of January and into February.

The only evident weakness: Defense. The Patriots allowed the highest third down conversion percentage in the NFL this season (47.1%). Despite putting up a mere three points in the last contest, the New York offense is tailor-made to slowly eat the Patriots alive. The Jets are artists at grinding games out and putting themselves in third-and-short situations. When Mark Sanchez converts in those situations, the Jets are virtually unbeatable. So what gives in this AFC divisional rivalry of the weekend? Well, it’s…

All about the grudge match. Take the score ‘45-3’ and throw it out the window. A rivalry game of this magnitude consisting of so much banter isn’t going to render blowout boredom. The Jets will attempt to play keep away, control the clock and execute on third down against a youthful New England secondary. The Patriots will simply continue to do what they’ve done all season. Bottom line: New England is the better team; just never underestimate the power of a rivalry.

The pick: New England 31, New York Jets 24 (Jets +9)