There are various reasons for this, but one stands out most evidently. The 2010-2011 NFL season has been one of parity and multiple contenders (save for New England’s commanding surge), so it’s been easy to point out irregularities and dazzling outputs. When the Colts were struggling mightily earlier this season, Peyton Manning’s atypical deficiencies gave us reason to set the Colts aside. When Mike Vick hit the scene and captivated the NFL world this season, it gave us a reason to promote a fundamental favorite. When Mark Sanchez gave no inclination that he could put up championship-caliber quarterback numbers at one point this season, it gave us a reason to further downgrade the Jets after their 45-3 loss to the Patriots in week 13 and 10-6 loss to Miami the week after. When two sub-.500 teams were battling for the NFC West title, a simple quarterback match-up gave the entire world a reason to go the Rams’ way.Essentially, the parity of the NFL this season has given us a week-to-week perspective of where teams reside on the power rankings totem pole. It’s also rendered us to make decisions on which teams are better or which teams are more apt to make a run based on meticulous or singular factors. In turn, skewed outlooks can surface. Come playoff time, there’s always a few teams that make you think, “Wow, I knew they were that good, but (blank) made me doubt them” or “(insert player here) made the difference in my bet, and it screwed me.” You don’t want to get snookered and be saying those things to yourself this Monday. This year’s Wild Card round contains some players that may influence you in the wrong direction. Without further ado, let’s launch this year’s NFL Playoff Preview (picks against spread in parentheses).
Saturday, Jan. 8th, 2011- 4:30 PM ET
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
Let me start off the shortest playoff game analysis ever by saying this: all the talk about changing the playoff system because one 7-9 team in the history of the NFL made the playoffs. It’s happened once. The system is fine how it is. The concept of giving incentive to a team for winning its division created the following rivalry games: Packers vs. Bears; Packers vs. Lions; Packers vs. Vikings; Vikings vs. Bears; Cowboys vs. Giants; Cowboys vs. Redskins; Giants vs. Redskins; Giants vs. Eagles; Cowboys vs. Cardinals; Raiders vs. Broncos; Raiders vs. Chiefs; Raiders vs. Chargers; Steelers vs. Browns; Steelers vs. Ravens; Patriots vs. Jets; every other divisional rivalry a fan may consider. Without division titles, half of these rivalries may not even exist. Additionally, it makes for a more interesting playoff format and possibly the best in all of sports. It makes fans more invested. NBA fans may know what conference their favorite team is in – but at the same time – may have no clue what division the team is in. In the NFL, fans care about those things, simultaneously adding to the significance of the regular season.It also gives a team like the Seattle Seahawks a home game in an electrifying playoff atmosphere. Qwest Field will be invariably pulsating through the NBC telecast on Saturday, which is enough for me to get excited. The only thing that makes me more excited: Charlie Whitehurst’s wannabe prettyboy look. Unfortunately, Matt Hasselbeck is getting the start.
On another note, the Saints may be in for another magical run this season, and their 10-1 odds to repeat look very tasty and may be the best future bet on the board. It all has to start somewhere.
The Pick: New Orleans 38, Seattle 13 (Saints -10.5)
Saturday, Jan. 8th, 2011- 8:00 PM ET
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts
Things that may sway you towards Peyton Manning and the Colts: Manning has won five of his last six games versus Rex Ryan’s defenses in both New York and Baltimore; the Colts are at home against an offensively-challenged team; Peyton Manning is undefeated against Ryan in games that actually matter; the Jets send multiple blitzers because they don’t obtain a pure pass rush, which can potentially play into Manning’s hands; the Colts have Peyton Manning.Every aforementioned reason to pick the Colts to advance is because of Peyton Manning. First off, I’d be the last person to degrade Peyton Manning. He’s the best quarterback in the NFL and the best quarterback I’ve ever seen. But if I’m not mistaken, football is a team sport. Yes, there have been many instances when a certain player has willed his team to victory and driven his team to the next level, but never has one player virtually won a game completely and utterly on his own.
This is where indifference to individuality should be first constituted in this Wild Card round. The Colts wouldn’t be where they are without Peyton Manning, but Manning has nothing to do with Indianapolis’s secondary youth, inefficiency against the run (127 yards per game), and slew of injuries on the offensive side.
A previous game that New York will likely emulate its game plan after is the Chargers game on Sunday Night Football in week 12. The Chargers did exactly what the Jets will do this Saturday. They sent a myriad of blitzes at Manning from a 3-4 scheme, which forced Manning to make hot reads for the majority of the game and the Colts struggled. Generally, Manning has no problem making hot reads and hitting quick routes when pressured. But injuries on the offensive line have left him far from a comfort zone all season, and injuries to his receiving core and tight end Dallas Clark have diminished his chemistry and dependability when making the necessary reads. Peyton Manning is still the same quarterback he’s always been, but his surroundings are far from familiar.
Moreover, the Jets thrive in these moments. Rex Ryan’s cockiness seems to ignite and permeate throughout his team in particular significant games. If this turns out to be one of those games, everything will be in New York’s favor.
The Pick: New York 26, Indianapolis 17 (Jets +2.5)
Sunday, Jan. 9th, 2011- 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
At first glance, this could look like a trap game to some and easy money to others. I’ll vie for neither. This game has the makings of a close, low scoring game that both teams may have a chance to win in the final minutes. Stalemates may be frequent with Kansas City’s top-ranked run game and Baltimore’s fifth-ranked rush defense matching up. The key for Kansas City will be flipping the script and attacking the Ravens’ mediocre corners. Although Matt Cassel has been efficient throwing the ball this season (27 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions), the Chiefs haven’t relied on throwing the ball all season. If the run game is unsuccessful early, it may be too late if they decide to unveil the aerial attack in the second half.However, if that proves to be the case, a couple of Jamaal Charles money plays may render crucial in this contest. The Ravens have had dilemmas within their crunch time offense this season, so the prospect of a two-touchdown lead is nowhere near safe in the fourth quarter at New Arrowhead Stadium. This game will inevitably come down to the Baltimore defense making multiple stops and becoming the closers if the Ravens do in fact have the lead.
Despite producing many less-than-convincing wins against quality opponents this season, the Ravens are still one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. Following this Wild Card round, their flaws will become much more apparent, but a team like Kansas City, which played only one team over .500 this season but still only finished 10-6, doesn’t portray the ability to pose the problems the more talented teams in the AFC have so blatantly exposed. Arrowhead Stadium may be a daunting place to play, and the Chiefs may have some explosive pieces offensively, but the safe team is always the team that’s proven the most. I mean, what would you rather have in the final four minutes of a close game, the Baltimore defense or Kansas City offense?
My point exactly.
The Pick: Baltimore 23, Kansas City 17 (Ravens -3)
Sunday, Jan. 9th, 2011- 4:30 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles
Brace yourselves. I want you to treat the following player with full-fledged disregard for his individual talents:
Mike Vick.
Okay, I know that was hard, but put this into perspective: The Eagles start two young linebackers (Moise Fokou and rookie Jamar Chaney, who was drafted 220th overall), a young secondary aside from Asante Samuel (Dimitri Patterson and rookie safety Kurt Coleman, who was drafted 244th overall) and only one formidable pass rusher (Trent Cole). Does that sound like a defense capable of containing Aaron Rodgers?
The only imposing component the Eagles possess on the defensive side is their speed. Philadelphia takes advantage of outside runs and finesse teams and leaves its offense to do the rest. The Packers may fit that finesse mold, but if they’re able to produce enough rushing yards to keep the Eagles off balance, Aaron Rodgers will effortlessly sift through the Philadelphia defense. If Rodgers truly is an elite NFL quarterback, his time to break through the top-tier threshold is now.
Now, why ignore Mike Vick? Because the Green Bay defense is one of the ideal Vick-deterrents in the league. The key for some teams has been a traditional 4-man front with a cover-2 scheme and a perennial pass-rusher (Chicago Bears). The other has been a zone scheme with a premier pass-rusher and a hard-nosed blitzing corner (Minnesota Vikings). Well, the Packers have the zone scheme (albeit a 3-4), a devastating all-world pass rusher (Clay Matthews), and blitzing corners (Charles Woodson, sometimes others). Basically, the Packers are as improvisational defensively as the Eagles are offensively. The only external factor will be containing DeSean Jackson’s downfield speed, but 30 other teams had the same problem this year, too.
The Big Play is always viable with this Eagles team, and is perpetually frightening when rooting for (or betting for) the opposition. But both of these teams have had ebbs and flows to their seasons, and Green Bay has currently been on an upswing in team fluctuation, winning its final
two games to earn itself a playoff spot. Mike Vick seemed to have lost his luster in the Minnesota contest two weeks ago, which is tough to foresee happening again.However, if there’s one team in the NFC playoffs (besides Chicago, Vick’s kryptonite) that has the tools to conquer Michael Vick, stomp on his back and pound their chests, it’s the Green Bay Packers. From that vantage point, the individual doesn’t appear so powerful.
The Pick: Green Bay 34, Philadelphia 28 (Green Bay +2.5)
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