NFL Week 4 Preview: Four Doozies, Four Duds (and some extras)

Remember when we said week one of the NFL season would be a nice barometer for the 2011-12 season? It seems a little obvious that it would be, but it really was. The Packers trampled the Saints defense, and now we realize that any team with a legitimate passing attack will do the same this year. Steven Jackson got hurt during his first big run of the season and the Rams’ season has been dreadful ever since. The Lions showed signs of true promise in week one, then the Buccaneers nearly pulled off the comeback behind Josh Freeman; followed by the Lions holding Freeman off and looking fantastic ever since. The Bucs still have a knack for comebacks (week two versus Minnesota) and can close games out behind a commendable quarterback (last week against Atlanta). The Ravens annihilated the Steelers in week one, let off the gas in week two and lost to Tennessee, then woke up and crushed a bad Rams team. The Steelers bounced back in week two and did what they were supposed to do against Seattle, then almost got blindsided by the Manning-less Colts last Sunday night. We’ve known what these two teams are all about in terms of talent and personnel these last few years, but it’s all about mentality in the AFC North at this point. The Cowboys were proving something until the fourth quarter in week one against the Jets, and have struggled to exude an outstanding offense ever since the Tony Romo choke-job. They squeaked out less-than-stellar victories over the 49ers and Redskins – two 2-1 teams that aren’t exactly for real at the moment. The Jets still attain characteristics of being able to hang around and steal some games, but a perpetually potent offense seems to be too much for the Jets to ultimately handle. Of the teams we covered in our season preview, a lot manifested in just three weeks.

Week four should paint an even clearer picture. As football fans (most notably: football fans that gamble), we try as best as we can to gain a grasp of how good teams are and what identities they obtain. The quarter mark is usually a premier time to start making assumptions. After all, there’s a big difference between 2-2 and 1-3, and even 4-0 and 3-1 for that matter. Moreover, teams have faced at least one formidable team by the quarter mark in which they have been tested to some degree. Let’s dive into a week four preview including the Four Doozies (games to watch) and Four Duds (games we probably won’t pay attention to, but might still be close games).

Four Doozies

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Every Sportscenter anchor has been asking every writer and analyst the same question all week: "Are the Lions and Bills for real?"

So far, the Lions look for real. Very much so. They staved of the Bucs in week one (which isn’t easy to do), did what good teams are supposed to do and blew out a horrendous Kansas City Chiefs team, and seized opportunity last week as the Vikings fell apart in the second half once again.

It wasn’t just that they took advantage of Minnesota’s inexplicable second half woes; it was how they did it. Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw two touchdown passes to Calvin Johnson, including one “go up and get it!” throw to start the third quarter. The Lions aren’t afraid to use their best players to their greatest extent, and capped off that notion with a gorgeous deep ball to Johnson to set up the game-winning field goal in overtime. Statistically, the Lions are a daunting passing team (fourth in total passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns), and are even more lethal to watch. Calvin Johnson is on pace to score 24 touchdowns this season (24!?!?!), Javhid Best is a speedster and the defense is relentless even though statistics may not say so. They’re a fearless team that doesn’t take games off (unlike the Steelers or Ravens), which is ostensibly going to be enough to break the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection curse that has been cast over the NFL since 2005. A 4-0 start breaks it immediately.
But Dallas is going to be Detroit’s biggest test thus far. The Cowboys may not look impressive so far this year, but the talent is there and Tony Romo is actually galvanizing the Cowboys. Did you see what Dez Bryant said after Monday night’s game? Romo playing through his rib injury is sparking belief in his teammates, which has to mean something. I don’t know how I’d feel if one of the most inconsistent talents in the NFL was my leader, but the Cowboys seem to feel differently. Plus, the Detroit secondary is the least trustworthy facet of the Lions’ squad. Romo could have himself a field day. Then choke another game away the following week.

The pick: COWBOYS (-1) over Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

The Steelers are the Steelers. They still have one of the most sterling defenses in the NFL, the second-most improvisational quarterback in football, and a revolving door of sub-par offensive linemen with injury issues. On the other hand, the Texans are still the Texans. They can still put up a ton of points and give up a ton of passing yards in the process. So far, the Steelers are first in the NFL in opposing passing yards, but the Texans are playing at home and are fifth in the NFL in rushing without Arian Foster in the lineup (He's returning this week). However, the Texans don’t obtain much of a home-field advantage (4-4 last year), and the Steelers should have their heads on straight for this one. In a game like this, take the points. This is probably the most exciting game on the 1:00 P.M. ET slate, and undoubtedly the toughest to predict.

The pick: Steelers (+4) over TEXANS

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

Talk about a doozy! This game may finish with a combined score of 100! Both of these teams have real issues in the secondary, and both attain one perennial offensive asset (Tom Brady and the passing game for New England, Darren McFadden and the running game for Oakland). Ultimately, this game is going to come down to which offensive attack controls the tempo most effectively, and which team achieves better play calling. Hue Jackson has been incredibly admirable as an offensive play caller for the Raiders, and has pulled out fabulous trick plays in pristine momentum-swinging moments. All in all, the Raiders are the most exciting team in the NFL right now (Really!? The Raiders???). Darren McFadden is evolving into the best runningback in the NFL with his old-school running style (Oakland fans can’t get enough of him right now. We salivate every time he touches the ball. It feels like there’s nothing he can’t do out of the backfield), the speed at wide receiver is a lot to handle for any defense (with Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy still injured) and the defensive line depth makes for a ruthless front four. Furthermore, the home field advantage in this game is going to be immense. Every Raider fan in Northern California has been fully anticipating this game since the final seconds counted down in last week’s Jets game. The “Tuck Rule” is still unforgotten in Raider Nation. A raucous home crowd behind both the defense and a quietly brilliant Jason Campbell gives the Raiders more than a shooter’s chance in this imminent shootout.
The pick: RAIDERS (+4) over Patriots

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

The Jets and Ravens have been somewhat confounding football teams so far. The Jets are a renowned run-the-ball/stuff-the-run team, yet they’re 25th and 31st in those categories, respectively. The Ravens seem to be the better team right now – their confounding moment was when they got caught sleeping in week two. If the Jets are truly the mentally tough, playoff-caliber team Rex Ryan makes them out to be, they will win this game. It would be detrimental if they didn’t, because the upcoming schedule isn’t so auspicious. After this Sunday night’s game, the Jets get the Patriots in New England, the Dolphins and Chargers at home, enjoy their bye week, then travel to Buffalo and come back home to the Patriots. A 2-2 record going into that stretch would be a grueling feat, so the J-E-T-S and the points seem like a safe pick. The Ravens are a very good team, but just like the Cowboys, it’s tough to trust their quarterback.

The pick: Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS

Four Duds

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

The best part about these teams is they have some friskiness to them, especially at quarterback. That doesn’t mean that their quarterbacks are any good (because they aren’t), but they’re frisky enough to make things happen late in games. It’s an interesting comparison considering Colt McCoy’s young career and Matt Hasselbeck’s aging one, but they both headline a couple of bottom-tier annoyances. The Titans appear to be the better team, but Kenny Britt’s season-ending MCL/ACL tear may hinder the Titans enough to keep them out of contention this season. The Browns win this friskiness battle. Time will tell who wins the war.

The pick: BROWNS (-1) over Titans

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

These teams have been so bad that I don’t feel like writing more than one sentence. But in case you didn’t already know, the Vikings have been outscored 67-6 in the second half this season, and the Chiefs have been outscored 109-27 through three weeks. It’s hard to pick the Chiefs in any game for the rest of the year; they have no talent left outside of Dwayne Bowe with the injuries they’ve suffered. At least the Vikings have something.

The pick: Vikings (-1.5) over CHIEFS

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

Why are the Rams so bad? It’s almost dumbfounding. This team literally has nothing going for them, while Redskins fans somehow have something to be hopeful about with Rex Grossman as their quarterback. This is the most perplexing dud of them all.

The Pick: Redskins (-1) over RAMS

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

This is undoubtedly the worst game of the week. Ignore Atlanta’s strange game against the Eagles on Sunday night in week two and the Falcons are a very bland team. Matt Ryan has put up mediocre numbers, Michael Turner rushed for 20 yards on 11 carries last week against a Buccaneers team that still ranks 23rd in rush defense despite that output. They also got utterly destroyed by the Bears in week one. The Falcons aren’t trustworthy whatsoever, but they’re also playing against an ugly NFC West team with Tarvaris Jackson as its quarterback. The dud of all duds. We’re taking the home team with the points.
The pick: SEAHAWKS (+4) over Falcons

Extras

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

The Bears find ways to keep games close with good teams while looking like an awful team all at the same time. Cam Newton got his win despite a marginal output, although it was in a Carolina monsoon. It’s going to be tough for me to bet against CAM THE MAN the rest of the year, especially since Ron Rivera has him chucking the ball all over the place this season. The 6-point spread is too big in this one.

The pick: Panthers (+6) over BEARS

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Are the Bills for real??? I’m not sure. But I do know this: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson are for real, and that’s enough for them to at least go 8-8 this year. A road game against a bad team will test Buffalo’s focus after a gigantic win.

The pick: Bills (-3.5) over BENGALS

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

If the 49ers win this game, it will be because they won it in the trenches. In other words, if the Eagles lose, it will mean they are a soft team that was constructed around a cast of skill-position players. Should the Eagles be this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, even though they can’t technically be considered a sleeper? Maybe they’re shaping a new trend. We’ll find out this week.

The pick: EAGLES (-9) over 49ers

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman’s first chance to shine in prime time. Although it’s against the Manning-less Colts, Indianapolis proved that its defensive line – still anchored by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at the ends – is a force to be reckoned with. But disregard everything I just said, because this is Josh Freeman’s coming out party.

The pick: BUCS (-10) over Colts

Additional picks: Saints (-7) over JAGS; Giants (-1) over CARDINALS; Dolphins (+7) over CHARGERS; PACKERS (-12.5) over Broncos