SFE NFL Preview, Part I of II: The Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection

By now, proclaiming everyone is ready for some football would be an understatement. Sports fans have been thoroughly excited since the NFL lockout ended and the free-agent frenzy dominated the sports world. But, in retrospect, the lockout didn’t hinder fans’ 2011 football season at all. Yes, maybe it stressed all of us out. A lot. But no preseason games were lost (with the exception of the Hall of Fame game) and, most importantly, no regular season games were lost. The lockout unequivocally harmed teams and players by pushing free agency back nearly five months and leaving newcomers and rookies virtually no practice time to gel with their teammates. Us fans got off easy.

However, we still see signs plastered on the walls of every sports bar and NFL ads with “Back to Football” headings shouting at us in large fonts. The anxiety rendered by the possibility of not having a football season was enough for it to feel as though there was something lost, when the product will be in full force by this Thursday. We should be glad we lost at least a few months of Merril Hoge’s opinions.

But because this will be the most anticipated NFL season in recent memory, it deserves a two-part preview. Beginning with something that was first discovered last season: The Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection.

If you don’t know what it is, let me explain in the shortest terms possible: The team with the utmost expectations of promise based on the second-half performance of the preceding season and/or offseason acquisitions of notoriety. The team usually doesn’t make the playoffs during that season, but does enough to make fans and analysts excited about the following season’s projections. The team is always expected to have its “breakout” season. In turn, the excess hype causes that team to ensue a season of inexplicable, yet inevitable disappointment. As a fan, you do not want your team to be the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection.

Last season, the selection became the San Francisco 49ers. The 2009 season ended well, Mike Singleterry brought a fresh ambiance to the team, Vernon Davis began to blossom and the division was projected to be the worst in the NFL. The 49ers were supposed to be the next team on the rise. Then they started the 2010 season 0-4 and, well… yeah.

This season’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection: The Detroit Lions. The Lions qualify for this year’s curse based on four red flags:

Red Flag #1: Injury Concerns
The most obvious caveat when attempting to defend the Lions’ hopes for a breakout season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has played a total of 13 games in his first two NFL seasons. Recurring shoulder separations are nothing to sneeze at in the game of football, especially at the quarterback position when the throwing shoulder is involved. With premier pass rushers such as Jared Allen and Julius Peppers (who induced Stafford’s injury in week 1 of last season) lurking within the NFC North division, a full season of complete health for Stafford is nowhere near a guarantee. Top that off with some additional injury concerns (runningback Jahvid Best suffered a concussion this preseason; first round draft pick Nick Fairley and cornerback Alphonso Smith both suffered injuries in training camp; Nate Burleson re-aggravated a previous elbow injury this preseason which will undoubtedly diminish Detroit’s depth at wide receiver), and the Lions don’t look as promising on paper as they do ostensibly.

Red Flag #2: Statistical Red Flags

Talent illuminated within the Lions’ defensive line last year, anchored by rookie defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The team recorded 44 sacks (sixth in the NFL), yet allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt. With Nathan Vasher recently cut by the team and Smith’s injury to consider, the Lions appear vastly weak at the cornerback position. Not a good sign considering an NFC North division consisting of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, Jay Cutler and Mike Martz’s system in Chicago, and Donovan McNabb in a much more promising atmosphere in Minnesota.

Detroit relied heavily on its defensive line and offensive playmakers to remain competitive last season. If the ground game wasn’t such an issue (23rd in the NFL last season), maybe the Lions would be capable of combating secondary woes with a stable offense. Secondary issues in a pass-heavy division and uncertainties in the offensive line are enough to second-guess Detroit’s playoff expectations.

Red Flag #3: The Schedule

Detroit’s first five games this season: at Tampa Bay, Kansas City, at Minnesota, at Dallas, at Chicago. Throw in tough contests against Atlanta (week 7), Green Bay (week 12), New Orleans (week 13), San Diego (week 16) and Green Bay again (week 17), and the Lions have one of the most daunting schedules in football this season. Even if the Lions semi-meet expectations and are in the playoff mix by week 12, The Saints are still on the horizon along with San Diego and the Packers twice. Their season schedule is somewhat frontloaded and very backloaded. A bad start implodes the season immediately; a playoff-caliber season capped off with a 3-5 or 2-6 second half would be all but disheartening – inauspicious prospects for a young, encouraging team.

Red Flag #4: The Expectations

Unquestionably the biggest red flag of all and the epicenter of every season’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection. The Philadelphia Eagles have been the most talked about team this offseason as the self-proclaimed “Dream Team.” But the Lions have been the ubiquitous breakout selection across the board and obtain the qualities of a true sleeper. Nearly every analyst, writer and TV host is salivating over this team. Michelle Beadle displayed her Detroit jubilance after the Lions’ impressive draft day. ESPN’s Matt Williamson, host of the Football Today podcast, fell in love with the team from what he assessed in the preseason. When the defensive line mauled Tom Brady with seven hits to the quarterback and two sacks in the third preseason game, the Lions made offseason noise once again.

Furthermore, the competitive fire the team exuded last season has engendered a lasting impact on the team’s assessments. Close losses that were within the grips of victory highlighted the first half of the season, as the team was victimized by questionable officiating against Chicago in week one, then proceeded to lose its close affairs to quality opponents (Philadelphia in week 2, Green Bay in week 4, the New York Jets in week 9, and Chicago in week 13).

This is where the seed of Detroit’s 2011 Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection status was planted. Nourishment was given to the seed during the team’s final four games of 2010, as the Lions finished the stretch with a pristine 4-0 record. The plant grew taller and taller as offseason moves were made and immense expectations were placed. All that’s left is for Detroit’s season of inexplicable disappointment to come to fruition. It’s not their fault. The NFL works in mysterious and karmic ways. As always, be careful which team you hype up next.