SFE NFL Preview, Part II of II: Using Week 1 as a Barometer

Instead of mapping out an entire NFL preview including all 32 NFL teams like every other blog post entitled “2011 NFL Preview”, let’s do something a little different. Five games in week one jump out as possible indicators of what to expect from some teams in the upcoming season. We’ll leave the 32-team breakdown to Bill Barnwell. Here are the five games:

New Orleans at Green Bay (Thursday night)
The 2009-10 Super Bowl champs vs. the 2010-11 Super Bowl champs. Drew Brees vs. Aaron Rodgers. One athletic and wonderfully schemed defense vs. another. Could there be a more perfect opening game? Who cares if the opening Monday Night Football games are sub-par when we’re getting this astounding game four days earlier? The weather should be beautiful for Green Bay’s standards, and neither team should be noticeably affected by the lockout based on the engrained continuity and experience they already share. It’s the best game we could possibly ask for following an uncertain offseason.

To top it all off, these two teams will probably exude traits indicative of what we’ll see for the rest of the season right off the bat. Both of these teams are considered potential Super Bowl contenders with abstract caveats. The talent is there, and the systems are there, but will they perform?

The only concern for the Packers is the Super Bowl hangover. It manifests more often than not in the NFL, and if Green Bay does elude the contagion while concurrently gaining health (15 players on IR last year and still won the Super Bowl, but everyone knows that already), then the Packers have the best chance to repeat since the latest Patriots dynasty.

If the Saints stifle Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees lights up the scoreboard, New Orleans will appear lethal immediately. Brees was quietly below standards last season (completed 68% of his passes and threw for 4,620 yards, yet threw a career-high 22 interceptions) and the team still managed an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance with the Super Bowl hangover to consider. Because of that, the Saints are the scariest team in the NFL prospectively and an impressive week one performance on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions would be just enough to back that up. Throw in newly acquired running back depth (Darren Sproles, rookie Mark Ingram along with the incumbent Pierre Thomas), health, experience, and brilliant schemes on both sides of the football, and the Saints are more than capable of using week one as a catapult for an exceptional season.

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams

For those of you wondering why the Eagles weren’t this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, it’s because they’re not considered a sleeper. There’s a reason why the word is in the title of the phenomenon. The Eagles have unquestionably been the most talked about team all offseason, but they did finish 11-5 last season and made a playoff appearance, so something good is already in place. The problem is, the expectations created by augmenting something good with notable acquisitions have the potential of backfiring. All-Pro Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie were added to the secondary, Ronnie Brown for running back depth, Steve Smith for wide receiver depth, and quarterback Mike Vick was extended for a hefty $100 million. Suddenly, the Eagles are a Super Bowl favorite flanked by a mass of bandwagoners. Furthermore, Vick was given an extension only two years removed from prison and subsequent a season that literally nobody predicted. With aberration factor at the quarterback position and absolutely no continuity to work with following the lockout, Philadelphia’s first game is more crucial than any other team in the league – so matching up with the Rams couldn’t be a better way to kick things off.

Quarterback Sam Bradford is an already emerging star with weapons to work with and newly acquired depth in the backfield. The Rams are a legitimate team on the rise, and obtain the potential to pull off some we’re-young-and-don’t-know-any-better wins against quality opponents. The team was already gaining a sense of identity last season, but somehow didn’t manifest in the last regular season game against the Seattle Seahawks, which knocked them out of playoff contention.

The Rams are still young, but the pieces and the potential are there. If they beat the Eagles week one, they’ll already looking at playoff prospects and Philadelphia will already start feeling the heat. If the Eagles win, well, they’ll be meeting expectations while the young team licks its wounds and learns from its youthful mistakes.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you read the first part of this preview, you already know what the Lions are facing this season. As for the Bucs, they’re coming off a season in which they enjoyed an exceedingly comfortable schedule. The promise is there with a budding talent in Josh Freeman at quarterback and a head coach in Raheem Morris that the players fully believe in. But if the Lions really are that sleeper team that everyone thinks they are, Tampa is in trouble. If the Lions truly are cursed by being this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, then the Bucs will roll through week one behind a 275-yard, 3-touchdown performance by Freeman. The most intriguing week one matchup that nobody is talking about consists of some equally intriguing implications.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

If you know the NFL, you know what to expect from this game: Punishing defense, smash-mouth, grind-it-out offense, a handful of dazzling plays by Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, maybe one perfect back-shoulder fade by Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco for a touchdown, Troy Polamalu flying around the field for Pittsburgh, Ed Reed playing center field for Baltimore, a combined score of less than 30, etc., etc., etc.

But when have we ever seen these teams play in week one? How big of a deal is this? How do the Ravens rebound after losing to their archrivals at home in week one? Can they afford to be demoralized by such a loss if this year is finally the year the defense ages?

As for the Steelers, their last two championships have been separated by two seasons, and the last time the Steelers won the Super Bowl was in the 2008-09 season. So if there was a “prospectively scariest team in the NFL besides the New Orleans Saints” entitlement to hand out, it would be given to the Steelers. The experience is there, an identity is in place, the lockout will have virtually no affect, and, as always, defense wins championships. The Steelers are a nice preseason Super Bowl pick, but an opening Sunday loss to the hated Ravens changes all of those notions.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets

NBC should jumpstart its opening Sunday Night Football game by calling it the “Show Me What You Got” game, and play that terrible video you just watched just to remind us it’s on network television. This is the year for both of these teams to prove something.

For the Jets, it’s proving they’re capable of reaching the expectations head coach Rex Ryan puts in front of them every season – winning the Super Bowl (or at least getting there). For the Cowboys, it’s proving they’re a viable postseason team.

Both Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez have something to prove, and both will probably be expected to have the best seasons of their careers in order for their respective teams to succeed. Both teams have noticeable holes (the Jets’ offensive line lost some key pieces and is now in question when it used to be the best in the NFL; the Cowboys whiffed on the Asomugha sweepstakes and couldn’t shore up their thin secondary) surrounded by reliable, experienced talent. The Jets are in a much better position in terms of team identity, but if Jason Garrett becomes the answer at head coach in his first full season with the Cowboys, Dallas may finally get over the hump in a season in which America’s team isn’t even the most prevalent team in its own division. A week one victory over a Jets team that’s been to the AFC championship two years running would be a significant step in getting over that hump.

Does the entire season hinge on week one for all of the aforementioned teams? Probably not, but it will be a huge indicator. If the first week of the season wasn’t anticipated enough already, it is now considering how much a loss means outside of a simple 0-1 record. So try to enjoy the opening games, even if your team doesn’t look so good. Back to football.