Thursday, September 15, 2011

Week 1 Retrospective: Categorizing Quarterback Impact (Part 1)

Week 1 of the most anticipated NFL season in recent memory is in the books, and it couldn’t have transpired in a more satisfying fashion. We saw scoring (Packers vs. Saints on Thursday night), impressive performances (Baltimore, Philadelphia’s offense), less-than-impressive performances (Kansas City, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Tony Romo), amazing individual performances and even some record-breaking ones (Sebastian Janikowski’s 63-yard field goal to tie the NFL record, Tom Brady’s 517-yard Monday Night Football passing record and Patriots record, Wes Welker’s record-tying 99-yard reception), and, most of all, some outlandish fantasy football performances.

But the most intriguing outputs from across the league ultimately came from the quarterback position. The class of quarterbacks that currently inhabit the NFL impact the league substantially because, well, there hasn’t been this many exceptional quarterbacks in the NFL in a long time. The quarterback class of the 90s comes the closest (John Elway, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon), and the passers of the 80s make a case because of Joe Montana and Dan Marino specifically, but also featured the likes of Elway, Moon, Joe Theismann, Phil Simms, Randall Cunningham and Boomer Esiason.

Some of those quarterbacks wouldn’t be considered elite if they played in the game today. The pure preciseness and preparation regimens passers have engendered are making the NFL so quarterback-oriented that it’s defying traditional football philosophy. You can say it’s the rule changes and the minimal contact receivers now have to deal with at the line of scrimmage, but that has nothing to do with the fact that the best quarterbacks in the NFL are now unwavering savants.

The impact quarterbacks have on the league was more than apparent in week 1, both good and bad. A significant group of quarterbacks portrayed so, and we’ll separate them into four categories based on what we saw last week. Additionally, we’ll parlay their week two prospects into some gambling predictions.

The Conundrums: Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo

Each one of these quarterbacks played sloppily in his own way, which obviously proved detrimental. Matt Ryan’s Sunday was highlighted by a spinning scramble to his left, followed by an attempt to catch his fall with his right hand (the hand which was holding the football), and left the ball on the turf for a Bears defender to recover. The Falcons were down 23-6 at that point – already playing horrifically behind bad tackling – and that very turnover with 6:00 remaining in the third quarter sealed the deal.

Sam Bradford played lethargically all game for the Rams, conveying difficulties in hitting his receivers on third down and never appeared on the same page with them at all. The highlight of the St. Louis offense came on a 47-yard touchdown run by Steven Jackson in the first quarter, but Jackson ended up straining a quad muscle on that very run and only returned for one more play. The Rams had no way to exploit Philadelphia’s weak linebacker core thereafter, and Sam Bradford’s ugly performance never stood a chance to make up for it. The up-and-comer finished the game 17-of-30 with only 188 yards and zero touchdowns. The Rams were a horrendous 2-12 on third down and only scored six points in the final three quarters.

Ben Roethlisberer accounted for five turnovers alone, highlighted by his most dismal (yet usually patented) throw, as he rolled to his left and heaved a pass across the middle of the field to Baltimore safety Ed Reed. Reed is guaranteed to be lurking in center field in that very situation almost every time, yet Roethlisberger still felt the urge to test Reed’s perennial prowess in center field while rolling to his left as a right-handed quarterback. Big Ben is known for his immaculate improvisational skills, but that very play capped off an already-appalling Pittsburgh performance with 11:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Losing 35-7 to the archrival Ravens undoubtedly stung Steelers fans and probably will for a few weeks.

As for Tony Romo, it was a classic performance. He played well all game, playing maestro in an imposing offensive symphony. For three quarters against the Jets on Sunday night, the 2011 Cowboys were already showing signs of turning over a new leaf. Then Tony Romo reminded us all why he’s Tony Romo, fumbling just a yard shy of the goal line midway through the fourth quarter, deterring Dallas’ chances of obtaining a two-touchdown lead and putting the game virtually out of reach. Once the Jets tied the game at 24, Romo subsequently threw an interception that immediately put the Jets in field goal range. As always, Romo put up fabulous numbers (23-36, 342 yards, 2 touchdowns, a 101.9 passer rating), but, as Romo has done so many times before, he deflated the Cowboys all on his own. There’s a difference between a great fantasy quarterback and a quarterback that can win you football games and ultimately playoff games. The only difference between Romo and the other aforementioned quarterbacks: he’s not a conundrum. Conventional opinion would say he is, but conventional wisdom would say that nothing about his week 1 performance was shocking.

Week 2 outlook: Matt Ryan struggles once again and the “What’s wrong with Matt Ryan?” questions will be answered by ESPN analysts all week, this time after dealing with an Eagles defense that appears to have the kind of speed that irritates the Falcons. Sam Bradford has a nice bounce-back game versus a terrible Giants secondary, Big Ben throws for 350 yards against the Seahawks and the Pittsburgh fans feel somewhat alleviated, and Tony Romo lights up the San Francisco secondary and everybody forgets how bad he is.

Picks: STEELERS (-14) over Seahawks; Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS; Eagles (-2.5) over FALCONS; Rams (+6) over GIANTS

Pleasant Performances: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rex Grossman, Matt Stafford, Joe Flacco
Ryan Fitzpatrick put up respectable numbers (17-25, 208 yards, four touchdowns and zero picks) in a 41-7 route over the Chiefs that featured some surprisingly scintillating offense. Wide receiver Stevie Johnson seems to be Fitzpatrick’s favorite target and an exciting commodity, and Fred Jackson somehow carried over his quietly commendable rushing from last season. The Buffalo Bills have somehow become a fun team to watch – a trickle-down effect of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s quarterback play.

Rex Grossman played well in his Washington debut (yes, I really did just say that with complete seriousness), albeit against a Giants team that could be terrible. But still, 305 yards with two touchdowns and no picks is absolutely outstanding for Grossman’s standards, and the Redskins might be decent this year if he keeps it going. That is, if he keeps it going.

Matt Stafford got through a whole game without getting injured (Almost. He limped off the field at least once), and that was the difference in the Lions’ week one victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Freeman almost added yet another comeback victory to his young resume, but the two-touchdown deficit was just too much to come back from. Without Stafford, Calvin Johnson wouldn’t have made his two beautiful touchdown catches, which were ultimately the difference in the game. Just as in week 1, Stafford will be the difference in defying the laws of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection this season.

Joe Flacco made some beautiful throws in a pristine statistical performance, contrary of his opponent’s output. Flacco has shown signs of greatness in his young career but has never seemed to sustain it. A convincing week 1 victory over the Ravens’ biggest rivals is an auspicious start, and now the Ravens have the look of a serious Super Bowl contender after only one week.

Week 2 outlook: Ryan Fitzpatrick duels with Oakland’s fast defense in an exciting, high-scoring affair and racks up over 300 yards, Rex Grossman plays respectably once again with 200 yards and a touchdown against Arizona, Joe Flacco duplicates his week 1 performance in a route over Tennessee, and Matt Stafford dismantles the Kansas City defense at a higher level than Fitzpatrick, putting the laws of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection in jeopardy.

Picks: LIONS (-9) over Chiefs; BILLS (-3.5) over Raiders (I know, I’m picking against my own team. It’s an early Sunday game on the East Coast for a West Coast team after a short week. I’m not confident. And the Bills are a little scary.); REDSKINS (-4) over Cardinals, Ravens (-6) over TITANS

Part 2 of this column features "The Promise" and "The Elite." To read Part 2, click here.

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