Week 1 Retrospective: Categorizing Quarterback Impact (Part 2)

This is part 2 of the two-part Week 1 Retrospective. To read Part 1, click here. For you non-gamblers, the picks below are against the spread.

The Promise: Cam Newton

Cam Newton had a ton of caveats attached to him when he was drafted with the number-one overall pick by the Carolina Panthers in April. He played in a system that contained absolutely no translation to the NFL game. He ran the ball as much as he passed. When he did pass, he wasn’t entirely accurate. But there’s one thing Cam Newton always attained throughout his college career, and it was the sole reason the Auburn Tigers won the BCS National Championship last year:

Intangibles.

The believers in Cam Newton from day one knew this would be an essential asset right away. To use a comparison perspective as an example, Newton carries a similar confidence to Donovan McNabb. Nothing fazes him, pressure doesn’t get to him at all, and he actually likes being in the spotlight. If he weren’t selected with the number one overall pick, it probably would’ve felt strange to him. There’s no question he realizes that if the Panthers reach a .500 record or better, he’ll be the reason why. Players like him revel in those types of moments, no matter what skills they obtain. So when Newton bolted out the gate last week with a 422-yard, two-touchdown passing performance with an Auburn-influenced rushing touchdown at the goal line for good measure, he made us pay attention. It wasn’t just because it was one of the greatest rookie quarterback debuts in NFL history, and it wasn’t just because he made handful of extraordinary throws deep down the field; it was because he conveyed the intangibles that fixated us on a Carolina offense that was one of the worst ever last season. He transcended an offense that used to feature Jimmy Clausen getting mercifully sacked every other play. Intangibles are capable of adapting in a multitude of new ambiances. It was only one game, but it was enough for fans to realize Newton is a competitor. Which is enough to spark belief.

Week 2 outlook: Newton puts up a valiant effort but struggles against the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, bringing him back to rookie earth. There’s now way he’s THIS good yet. A couple of turnovers and maybe a pick-six highlight his performance.

Pick: Packers (-10) over PANTHERS

The Elite: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Mike Vick, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady

NFL fans already know that this is the undisputed elite class of quarterbacks in the league (with Ben Roethlisberger in the conversation). But who impacted his team the most this week?

You could make a case that Mike Vick and Peyton Manning didn’t, because Vick only threw for 187 yards with a completion percentage of 44% and Manning didn’t even play. But how big of an impact does Manning have by not playing? Possibly larger than any other quarterback in the NFL being on the field? And what about Vick? Don’t you think his presence alone has something to do with LeSean McCoy averaging eight yards a carry against a commendable St. Louis defense last week? Despite the possibility of Vick becoming a one-hit-wonder for the Eagles, he’s still elite because the mere presence of him being on the field calls for it. And the mere absence of Peyton Manning makes the Indianapolis Colts 30 points worse on offense.
As for Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, the San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints have engrained identities because of the two quarterbacks. The Chargers seemed in trouble, down 17-7 to Minnesota at halftime in week 1 due to customary San Diego special teams miscues. But once the second half started, Rivers started slinging the ball downfield like he never missed a beat. The Chargers won 24-17 and made the Vikings look dreadful again because Rivers played so well in the second half. Brees seemed as though he never missed a beat from the get-go, putting up gaudy numbers in the process (419 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions), and solidified the Saints as a contender this season despite the loss. The Packers weren’t losing to anyone on Thursday Night, and the Saints came pretty close to winning.

If Manning comes back from his injury as a shadow of himself, there will be two quarterbacks standing atop the mountain of quarterback prominence: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Fitting that they both played in prime-time games in week 1, Rodgers and Brady dished out performances as if they were indirectly battling one another. Rodgers was 27-35 for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns and made throws that seemed literally untouchable for defenders (most notably: his trademark back-shoulder fade). He ate up the Saints defense the same way he ate up Atlanta and Pittsburgh in the playoffs and Super Bowl last season. He laughed at the fact that the media put so much merit into limited training camp hours because of the lockout, and then threw the football with ease to Greg Jennings and his Green Bay receivers like he was flinging it around in the park on a Saturday afternoon. With Peyton Manning injured, not one quarterback makes the quarterback position look easier than Aaron Rodgers with the same bravado.
Oh, and Tom Brady broke another record like he always does. Brady is the proven commodity of this cohort (as his three Super Bowl rings can attest), but Aaron Rodgers is nipping at his heels to take the top spot. The Green Bay Packer offense is already showing signs of efficiency that compare to Brady’s Patriots of 2007. Once vulnerability manifests, then the elite of the elite can be determined. For now, Aaron Rodgers has thrown himself into a legitimate top-quarterback debate in an era laden with prolific passing.

Week 2 outlook: Drew Brees doesn’t let up as the Saints squeeze by a Bears team that plays better than they really are at the beginning of the season, the Colts continue to struggle without Peyton Manning but at least look somewhat competitive against the Browns, Rivers and Brady duke it out against one another in a tight one as the Chargers try to forget their postseason history against the Patriots, and Mike Vick becomes the main attraction in a scintillating “Welcome Home Party” performance in Atlanta.

Picks: Bears (+6.5) over SAINTS; Browns (-2.5) over COLTS; Chargers (+7) over PATRIOTS; Eagles (-2.5) over FALCONS

Additional Picks: JETS (-9) over Jaguars; Buccaneers (+3) over VIKINGS; Texans (-3) over DOLPHINS; Bengals (+4) over BRONCOS