(An Attempt at) Regulating My Vegas Weekend

It’s finally here – a weekend in Vegas with the majority of my closest friends for the first time since we’ve turned 21. The overall goal (for me personally) is to not run dry before Sunday. NFL betting must take precedence over any other Vegas aspect this weekend. So for my personal reference and benefit, I feel like a ten-segment set of regulations will be essential. Friends, nightlife, drinking and gambling all in the same weekend is a potential recipe for disaster for someone who used to gamble profusely, loves hanging out with his closest friends and just so happens to drink and gamble heavily with his closest friends if put in the right situation. Here’s how my Saturday would go if I decided not to lay out this forthcoming manifesto:

Wake up at noon; spend $15 on lunch; walk directly to the blackjack table and lose $100 in 5 minutes; spend money on alcohol and start drinking at around three or four o’clock because I ruin my opportunity at free drinks in the casino; spend more money on food and alcohol at dinner; go clubbing and spend the rest of my money; wake up at 2 p.m. Sunday afternoon vehemently pissed because I don’t remember what happened last night, missed nearly every game, and only have enough money to put down on a Sunday Night Football game featuring the prominent stay-away betting team in the NFL (the Eagles); come home with empty pockets because I stupidly bet on the Eagles to cover the spread as I begin my Broke College Kid initiation process. The thought of these events having a good chance of transpiring is where the ten aspects of my preparation come in. If you’re reading this and you so happen to be one of the people going with me on this trip, take notes if needed.

1. Don’t get carried away before Sunday. The array of bets is going to be enticing. As with every casino, the possibility of putting money down is present as soon as you walk in. My recurring mistake in casinos: sitting down at the blackjack table first and foremost. Not doing that is going to be a tough task, so I’ll need to get my mind off it by seeing which college football games to bet on and which UFC 139 fights portray the best odds. The wise decision will be to make only one of those bets, play random card games in the meantime, then hit the blackjack table if anything pays out. Remember, the intention of the weekend is for it to culminate in the ultimate Sunday of NFL betting at the Mirage, the Hilton, or any prominent sportsbook of the sort (as best a college kid can that’s taking half his life savings with him). As of right now (as I refer to offshore betting websites), Ohio State (-7) over Penn State, Oregon (-14.5) over USC and Brian Bowles (+180 money line) over Urijah Faber look like the best Saturday night sports bets. I’ll probably bet on Ohio State because I’m a huge Faber fan (Sactown’s Finest) and betting against Penn State would be the equivalent of betting against my newfound hatred for college football. Perfect way to start the weekend! Even though I’ll be arriving on Friday. Which leads to this next gambling rule of thumb…

2. Get your poker urges out of the way early. The majority of my friends are showing up later than me on Friday, so it will be the perfect day to get my poker fix. Poker is always my favorite, because even though it seems like a slow game, there’s a lot going on that can’t be seen and your chances of losing $500 in five minutes are a lot slimmer than it is when you’re getting crushed by a blackjack dealer. More than that, poker isn’t the kind of game you play when you’re partying with 15 friends. I never like to drink when playing this game in the first place, but it will be tempting to since it’s my first Vegas trip. Two drinks max. I don’t plan on pulling a Scotty Nguyen over the weekend.

3. Sit at the slot machines for free drinks, not at the tables. We sort of went over this already, but sitting at the tables in hopes of piling up on alcohol is always a bad idea. The only good table for that is craps, except my craps accomplice probably won’t be making this trip. Which is a shame because of my longtime dream of reenacting this at a Vegas craps table. I hate slots, but watching sports simultaneously is never terrible, and hopping around from that to other rigged games of the sort is always an option.

4. If the option for a trip to the strip club arises, turn down it down. Remember, you need money for Sunday betting. Ummm….

5. First NFL betting rule: Stay away from the Eagles. Now we’re getting to the good stuff. I know this is a way easier assumption now that Michael Vick is questionable, but the Eagles are the one team to stay away from, whether it’s in terms of betting for or against. It will be hard for me not to bet on a Sunday Night Football game in Vegas, but I’m electing to refrain even if Vick doesn’t play. Because if he doesn’t, Andy Reid will unintentionally do the right thing by giving LeSean McCoy the ball 30 times.

6. Personally emulate this video.

7. Second NFL betting rule: Take the tasty teasers, just don’t get out of hand. If you don’t know what a teaser is and don’t care, just skip this segment. If you want to know what it is, then here you go: These bets come in the form of 6-point, 6.5-point, 7-point and sometimes 10-point teasers. Basically, you can scale a point spread in your favor by those amounts, but your payout odds decrease. For example, if the Cowboys are favored by eight points against the Redskins (which they are), taking them in a 7-point teaser makes them only 1-point favorites. However, the payout goes from a $10 risk/$9.09 payout to a $10 risk/lower payout. That payout is uncertain because there’s one catch: you have to bet on at least two teams at once in a teaser. So if you threw the Packers and Cowboys in a 7-point teaser, you would be risking $10 for a $7.69 payout with the Cowboys giving just one point and the Packers giving seven (the Packers are 14-point favorites right now), and both teams have to cover to win the bet. In other words, only bet on teasers when scaling back the spread is too much to pass up and three teams offer enticement, but never more than three. Four or more just gets you into trouble.

There are five morning games that provide permutations for some tempting 7-point teasers. Here’s what the spreads look like once the teaser is implemented (home team in caps): RAVENS (Pick) over Bengals; Raiders (+6) over VIKINGS; LIONS (pick) over Panthers; PACKERS (-7) over Bucs; Cowboys (-1) over REDSKINS.

The verdict: I can’t bet on the Raiders because it’s already too emotionally grueling and I hate betting on Tony Romo. The other three games look like locks, no? The other lock: BEARS (-3.5) over the Chargers in the afternoon. I wish I could wire transfer that money directly from my ING account RIGHT NOW.

8. Third NFL betting rule: Be cognizant of last week’s “Swing Games.” Which is exactly why taking the Bears is a no-brainer. Two teams that swung in completely opposite directions last week are playing against one another this Sunday. Additionally, the Bills look like a lock against the Dolphins but they just can’t be trusted right now. The Raiders might be gaining momentum but the Vikings match-up is too dicey and Carson Palmer will have to throw more than 20 times once Minnesota loads the box. My unlimited passion for Cam Newton can’t even supersede how bad the Panthers defense is. Josh Freeman is letting me down and the Bucs have no chance of ruining my teaser unless Aaron Rodgers doesn’t show up. And, as always, stay away from the Eagles.
9. It’s your best friend’s 21st birthday, not yours. You already endured your 21st birthday drunken stupor in San Francisco this summer. Remember that. Ummmmm……

10. Don’t blow all your money. You will officially be a broke college kid like everyone else after this trip if you do. Ummmmmmmm……….

Complete list of Week 11 NFL picks, just for fun: Jets (-6.5) over BRONCOS; Bills (+2) over DOLPHINS; RAVENS (-7) over Bengals; Jaguars (PK) over BROWNS; Raiders (-1) over VIKINGS; LIONS (-7) over Panthers; PACKERS (-14) over Bucs; REDSKINS (+7.5) over Cowboys; Cardinals (+9.5) over 49ERS; Seahawks (+2) over RAMS; FALCONS (-6) over Titans; BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers; GIANTS (-5) over Eagles; PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs