NFL Week 10: Swing Games

What have we learned after 9 weeks of the NFL season? Well, we’ve learned that the Green Bay Packers are in a class of their own and the rest of the league will be fighting for the remaining playoff spots. However, this doesn’t mean that those remaining slots aren’t imperative. A team’s road to the Packers could change the dynamic of the season. The North divisions in both conferences are comprised of three playoff contenders, and divisions such as the NFC South, AFC West, and AFC East are up for grabs. Week 10 consists of a handful of games that should start to smooth things out a little bit, so let’s preview this weekend’s significant swing games.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (Tonight at 8:20 PM EST)

Both of these teams have been horrifically sloppy as of late. Raiders quarterbacks have combined for nine interceptions in the last two games, and Philip Rivers has thrown 14 interceptions on the season – a ghastly number for an elite NFL quarterback. Both of these teams have secondary issues, injury issues, and are tops in the league in total turnovers (Oakland is third in the AFC with 16, San Diego tied for most in the NFL with 19). The Raiders have lost two games in a row (home against the Chiefs and Broncos), and the Chargers have lost three in a row (at the Jets, at the Chiefs, home against the Packers). Both teams are free-falling yet find themselves tied at the top of the AFC West. In other words, this division is really bad.

But if the Chargers can snap their losing streak and the Raiders suffer a third straight division loss, the divisional picture becomes very clear. Carson Palmer made some nice throws last week and got his receivers involved, but he still threw three interceptions and the defense was absolutely dreadful. Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow accounted for 405 yards alone in that game. If the Broncos can manage that much yardage out of two players, imagine what the San Diego offense will be able to do tonight with its cast of offensive weapons. There’s no Darren McFadden to keep the Chargers off the field and control the game. The Raiders will need an all-out flawless performance tonight to win, because a 4-5 record with remaining games against the Bears, Lions, Packers and Chargers again creates a grim second half picture. Which is too bad, because there's no two things I enjoy more in the NFL than watching the Raiders win and Philip Rivers pout like a first-grader on the sidelines.

The pick: CHARGERS (-7) over Raiders


Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

Although the New York Giants appear to have pulled away as the most reliable team in the NFC East, the Cowboys actually have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs if you look at their remaining schedule. After this week’s game versus Buffalo, they go to Washington, have Miami at home and then go to Arizona. If the Cowboys manage to go 4-0 in the next four games, they’ll be sitting at 8-4 with two games left against the Giants. So this game against the Bills is vastly significant. The Bills got manhandled by the Jets last week, which is either a product of the Jets coming into their own or the Bills fizzling out, and that’s something Buffalo can’t afford. The AFC East is in a deadlocked three-way tie with New England sliding. The Jets and Patriots happen to play each other on Sunday night, so achieving a 6-3 record with contests left against each of those teams is enormous for the Bills.

DeMarco Murray proved he wasn’t a one-hit wonder last week with his 139-yard performance, so Dallas has some legitimate balance in its offense right now. As always, the question marks are in its secondary (if you're still turning a blind eye to Tony Romo). If Ryan Fitzpatrick can recover from his funk (he hasn’t thrown more than two touchdown passes in a game since week two, has thrown for over 200 yards only twice in the last five games, and has thrown six interceptions in the last four games), then the Bills have a shot to win or at least make a Detroit-esque second half comeback. Besides the whole Megatron part.

The pick: Bills (+5.5) over COWBOYS


New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has been able to beat teams how it sees fit, using Michael Turner more prevalently against teams that struggle against the run and stretching the field against teams with secondary deficiencies. I guess we can expect a lot of Michael Turner this Sunday against the Saints. New Orleans is 17th against the run statistically this season, and appears even worse than that in game action. As if the defense isn’t sloppy enough, Drew Brees and the offense have been even more so. Despite their win against Tampa Bay last week, the Saints had a tough time finishing drives and went three for six in the red zone. The Bucs have been everything but good this season despite their record, and the Rams team that beat the Saints the week prior isn’t exactly a powerhouse. If the Saints don’t turn things around this week in a harsh environment on the road, they’ll find themselves at 6-4 and suddenly the Falcons will be in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. This game alone has the potential to change the dynamic of the entire division for the rest of the season.

The pick: FALCONS (PK) over Saints


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Along with the Bills, the Bengals have been the surprise of the AFC this year, and they’re legitimately good. The defense is ranked second against the run and tenth against the pass. It’s not a stretch to say that the only defenses playing better right now are in Baltimore and San Francisco. However, the Steelers just came off a loss to the Ravens and will be prepping James Harrison and company for a feeding frenzy after rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton would be the undisputed Rookie of the Year if Cam Newton wasn’t around, but the schedule has been very fortunate thus far for the Bengals. The Bengals may be legitimately good, but they’re not legitimately great. A 7-2 record and control of the AFC North? That would induce hours upon hours of Bengals talk on ESPN next week.

The pick: Steelers (-3) over BENGALS


Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks

Trust me, this is a swing game. Just hear me out:

Century Link field is an insane atmosphere and wacky things always happen there. Joe Flacco can easily digress from last week’s brilliant crunch-time performance. The Ravens just beat the Steelers for the second time in a row and will be coming down from that high. Remember when they lost to the Jaguars on Monday Night Football three weeks ago and Flacco looked utterly confused, then fell behind by a large margin to the Cardinals a week later? This is still that same team with those same players. Don’t get set to anoint the Ravens just yet. The AFC North isn’t anywhere near clinched.

The pick: SEAHAWKS (+7) over Ravens


New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
This is unequivocally the most prominent swing game of the week. It may not seem like it because the 49ers clinched the NFC West three weeks ago and the Giants are sitting pretty at the top of the NFC East, but these teams are fighting for the number two seed in the conference. These teams are on a fantastic roll, playing to their strengths better than any team in the league besides the Packers. Eli Manning has been phenomenal and so has the San Francisco defense. The only uncertainties in this game would be the New York run defense and the fact that the San Francisco secondary hasn’t really been tested outside of Calvin Johnson. With that in mind, neither team should waver or shy away from what it does best in this game. Mark this one down as the Non-Rivalry Game of the Week (this can't be considered a rivalry unless you're still living in the 80s and 90s or you still think about this game from time to time).

The pick: Giants (+3.5) over 49ERS


Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Yes! Our weekly dose of Megatron is back!

On another note: From here on out, the Lions and Bears will be fighting for an NFC Wild Card spot, and it starts this week. Whether you’re a believer or not, the Bears have been very good this year and Matt Forte is a complete monster. Moreover, teams have been lethargic in games following bye weeks this season (12-12 record), especially when those games have been on the road (3-8). The Lions obtain considerable strengths but not many dimensions with running back Jahvid Best still out. Calvin Johnson won’t be able to swing this one on his own. At 5-3 and 6-2, the Lions and Bears will be scrounging for playoff positioning as the Packers watch from afar. With the Packers playing the Vikings on Monday night, week 10 will personify all of that.

The pick: BEARS (-3) over Lions


New England Patriots at New York Jets

While the Patriots are sliding and the secondary continues to collapse, the Jets seem to be coming together nicely. Since losing three straight road games to Oakland, Baltimore and the Patriots, Gang Green has won three straight games in convincing fashion. In the one close contest of the three against San Diego, Shonn Greene ran the ball for 112 yards and the patented smash-mouth attack came to fruition for the first time this season. That game was the turning point, and the Jets are themselves again. The swagger is apparent, Mark Sanchez has been reliable, Plaxico Burress has been brilliant and the defense is forcing turnovers.

On the other hand, the Patriots have been nothing of the sort. When these teams last faced in week five, New England gave the Jets some of their own medicine and Benjarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 136 yards. Since then, no Patriots runner has rushed for more than 60, and the passing offense has been struggling as well. Dallas blanketed the underneath routes the Patriots are so accustomed to targeting in week six. They allowed the “deep threats” to run free and the Patriots had a rough time gaining any offensive rhythm. Since then, Tom Brady has struggled to consistently play at his elite level. Wes Welker has been shut down, and when that happens, the tandem tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) are all Brady has to work with down the field. Absolutely no deep threat is viable enough to give Brady breathing room when Welker gets blanketed, and it’s become an evident quandary for the New England offense – which accounts for a vast majority of the team’s success. What’s more, the Jets have learned how to beat the Patriots and deter their offensive scheme better than any team over the years.

So honestly, can a Sunday night rivalry in week 10 get any better? One team has slid halfway down an avalanche; the other has brushed off the snow and managed to pull itself halfway back up the mountain. Both teams know what to expect from one another. So can the big brother of the AFC East regain command in a deadlocked division? Do the Jets have their full-fledged swagger back? Will they do this again if they win because they realize that a victory probably determines the division?
Or maybe Tom Brady just walks into New Meadowlands and starts firing bullets like nothing ever happened. The rule is to never bet against Brady after a loss, but the Patriots have already lost two straight. There’s a reason the spread in this one is basically a pick. The ultimate swing games never give points to anyone.

The pick: JETS (-1) over Patriots