Your NFL Leftovers

Now that I’ve fully recovered from both my Vegas hangover and my Thanksgiving turkey hangover, here are some NFL leftovers to grub on:

THE TURKEY

The main course goes to none other than the Green Bay Packers. Just like the turkey itself, there’s no need to elaborate on how good the 11-0 Packers are. They’re consistently brilliant and Aaron Rodgers has officially separated himself as the best quarterback in the league. Their remaining schedule: at the Giants, home against the Raiders, at the Chiefs, then home against the Bears and Lions to end the season. Do you see them losing any of those games right now? Yeah, neither do I.

THE STUFFING

The stuffing is my favorite dish that nobody really talks about. For some reason, it always gets overlooked. It’s almost like it’s just there; but it gets the job done and I always feel like I enjoy it more than everyone else. That was the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Nothing flashy, they just got the necessary win, reached a 7-4 record and retained the AFC West lead. Key injuries lingered and were apparent offensively as there was virtually no explosiveness, but the Raiders managed a 25-20 win over a very good Bears team, which was crucial. Although Caleb Hanie was the featured quarterback for Chicago and offensive coordinator Mike Martz elected to refrain from featuring Matt Forte early and often, the fact that the Raiders beat the Bears at their greatest assets (defense and special teams) is a significant accomplishment at this point in the season. The Oakland defense has been suspect all year but finds itself riding a great deal of confidence into the final stretch. If that confidence persists as the Raiders try to get completely healthy offensively, the looming three-game stretch (at Miami, at Green Bay and home against the Lions) should pass without any significant blemishes or fears of Tebow vaulting the Broncos to the division lead. And yes, I’m a victim of referring Tim Tebow without initially typing his first name.

THE MASHED POTATOES

This dish is for the mashed-up playoff picture. No different than three weeks ago, the Packers are way ahead of the pack and both North divisions are jumbled. But who’s going to fill the Wild Card slots and who in the world is going to win the AFC North? Are the Texans going to hold on to the AFC South lead with T.J. Yates or even Jake Delhomme at quarterback? Let’s sort this out right now:

The Texans have games left against Atlanta at home, at Cincinnati, home against Carolina and at Indianapolis before their week 17 match up against the Titans. Loss, loss, win, win. That culminates in a 10-5 record going into the last game. At worst, they’ll be 9-6 if something weird happens or if Superman goes off. The Titans play at Buffalo, home against the Saints, at Indy and home against the Jaguars. Win (but could go either way), loss, win, win. That’s a 9-6 record at best going into the last game, so this week’s Buffalo game is critical. The remaining schedule favors the Texans, unless Matt Hasselbeck gets benched (Jake Locker was awesome against Atlanta during my afternoon Vegas slate), or their quarterback situation completely cripples them in spite of the stout running game and defense. Chalk up the Texans here.

From the looks of it, the Ravens will either win the AFC North or tie with the Steelers, and Baltimore owns that tiebreaker. So the Steelers receive a Wild Card spot by default. But who gets the last spot? It’s down to three teams at this point: Bengals, Broncos, Jets and Titans. The Bills have faded into obscurity and the Chargers are terrible. The Bengals still have games against the Ravens and Steelers again, and although the first two contests illuminated that the Bengals are good enough to hang with the big dogs, they might not be good enough to beat them. Sandwiched between those games are the Texans, Rams and Cardinals, so Cincy is in good shape even if they ultimately lose four to the top dogs of the North this year. That week 17 game versus Baltimore at home seems winnable though, so 11-5 easily fends off the Broncos, Chris Johnson and Mark Sanchez. Wait, fending off Chris Johnson and Mark Sanchez isn’t hard to do at all… unless you’re the Bills or the Bucs.

As for the NFC, the division titles seem pretty locked up, and considering the remaining schedules, the seeding will look like this:

1. Packers
2. 49ers
3. Saints
4. Cowboys

But the Wild Card picture is a lot fuzzier. If I were to ask you which of these three teams was worse two weeks ago – the Falcons, Lions, Giants and Bears (with Cutler) – what would you have said? Wouldn’t you have said the Falcons? Now that the Giants are free-falling, the Lions are combusting and Cutler is out until the playoffs, the Falcons are the best of the bunch. Although they’re as mediocre as mediocre gets, their remaining schedule is ridiculously easy (the only tough game is at New Orleans in week 16 on Monday Night Football) and they’ll probably finish 11-5 and get dismantled by Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. The last spot is between the Lions and Bears because the Giants have the roughest remaining stretch of any contender. Despite the injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears have an ostensibly survivable road ahead of them that will be headlined by defense and special teams (Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers, Vikings). Before the quarterback injury, Chicago was emerging as the second best team in the NFC. If Cutler is indeed healthy by postseason time, how awesome will Bears/Saints be? I’m salivating.

Did you notice that the Lions got completely disregarded at the end of that paragraph? That’s for the next dish.

THE CANNED CRANBERRY SAUCE

Everybody hates this stuff. Except for me. Everybody passes the canned stuff for the unprocessed gourmet version. Not me. I proudly admit it every year and consider it the personal satisfaction of Thanksgiving that I don’t have to share with anyone else. Which is sort of like the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection – a title and phenomenon I discovered and created myself last year. Before this season, I tagged the Detroit Lions with this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection curse, considering the inordinate number of “sleeper” picks and exorbitant amounts of hype given to the team preseason. However, by week four, I gave up on my oh-so-confident prediction, handing the curse to Philadelphia and changing its name to the “Inordinate Hype Team.”

I never should’ve done that. Here’s what I wrote in early September about the Lions and their inevitable curse:

Even if the Lions semi-meet expectations and are in the playoff mix by week 12, the Saints are still on the horizon along with San Diego and the Packers twice. Their season schedule is somewhat frontloaded and very backloaded. A bad start implodes the season immediately; a playoff-caliber season capped off with a 3-5 or 2-6 second half would be all but disheartening – inauspicious prospects for a young, encouraging team.

Throw in another tough game (Oakland), an extremely one-dimensional offense, a crumbling defense and a Bad Boy Lions identity gone wrong (Side note: I love the aura the Lions bring, no matter how bad it's backfiring right now, and I don't care what anybody else thinks about it. Just like my love for canned cranberry sauce.) and the Lions are staring directly at that 3-5 or 2-6 second-half slide. The lesson: Stick to your guns, or you'll get stomped on.

Too soon?

THE GREEN BEANS

I hate green beans. I can’t even look at them. My family doesn’t even pass them my direction because they just know. When the bowl of green beans does find its way to my side of the table and somehow ends up right in front of me, it just looks like it doesn’t belong on the table among the rest of the dishes. It looks like a lost soul that doesn’t really know what’s going on, but does a good job of blending in and taking a role. Just like Alex Smith.
THE PUMPKIN PIE

Pumpkin pie is the perfect Thanksgiving dessert. It’s completely mind numbing and utterly enjoyable. It’s so good that you just eat it without saying a word to yourself or anyone else that might be eating it too, which causes it to be overlooked at times. Drew Brees and the Saints were the perfect dessert to end the Thanksgiving weekend, and reminded us all how enjoyable the Saints are to watch in the Superdome when they’re on all cylinders. 30,000 yards in seven years??? How does that get overlooked? Brees is just too perfectly good.

THE ICE CREAM CAKE

Ice cream cake is totally superfluous, but it’s rich and decadent. Which are the same words you can use to describe the New England Patriots offense. Expect more of that considering the cake schedule they’re facing the rest of the season.

THE TURKEY SANDWICH

The best leftovers in the history of leftovers. You always save the best for last. Here’s a quick (although belated) Vegas recap:

Didn’t get carried away before Sunday; got my poker urges out early although I didn’t do so well; didn’t spend all my money at a strip club; had a nice roulette run that led to some free drinks; got drunk but not belligerent; saw Deadmau5 at XS Nightclub; won all of my NFL bets on Sunday (Packers, Lions and Ravens in a riveting three-team teaser, the Bears -4 and the second-half over in that same game); completely avoided the Eagles (although the first-half under at +110 was so tempting. My sports betting senses were on point); and made it home in one piece. Overall, it was a successful trip that I hope happens once a year for the rest of my life. There’s a chance I will fall into a gambling problem.

Week 13 picks: SEAHAWKS (+3) over Eagles; Titans (+2.5) over BILLS; BEARS (-7) over Chiefs; Raiders (+3) over DOLPHINS; STEELERS (-6.5) over Bengals; REDSKINS (+3) over Jets; TEXANS (+3) over Falcons; Broncos (+2) over VIKINGS; BUCS (-3) over Panthers; PATRIOTS (-20.5) over Colts; BROWNS (+6.5) over Ravens; 49ERS (-13.5) over Rams; Cowboys (-4.5) over CARDINALS; Packers (-7) over GIANTS; SAINTS (-9) over Lions; Chargers (-3) over JAGS