Backing Into The NFL Playoff Preview

If you’re one for comparisons, you can compare me to a few NFL playoff teams because I’ve completely backed into one of my favorite series of columns. Every year, I preview each playoff match-up from every round and make picks against the spread. Last year I had a fantastic time with it, as I went 8-3 against the spread for the series and ultimately cashed out in Reno, thanks to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. This year, I might be going in a little rusty. Don’t get me wrong, I have a nice grasp of the league and I’m excited about that, but I didn’t wake up until the afternoon games last week (New Years), didn’t go anywhere to watch all the games the week before (so I tried to watch as many as I could illegally online), and I haven’t written anything in nearly a month. I just allowed the magnificence of my last piece to linger while simultaneously imitating the awesomeness of this meme.

So, we’ll preview the 2012 Wild Card round the only way we should: By discounting the teams that backed in most detrimentally, and giving merit to those that didn’t. Which means I’ve given no merit to myself as a human being over the last three weeks. Let’s move on.

Saturday, Jan 7 – 4:30 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Fitting that this is the first game of the weekend since this is the ultimate backing-in game. The Bengals simply had to win last week to secure a playoff spot. Instead, they lost to the Ravens and became the beneficiaries of Raiders and Jets losses. They finished the second half of their season with losses to the Steelers and Ravens twice, a loss to Houston and squeaked out close wins over the Browns, Rams and Cardinals. Not an impressive stretch.

Houston’s final stretch wasn’t so impressive either. They were 10-3 after fourteen weeks. They’re 10-6. They suffered losses to Carolina, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Rookie third-string quarterback T.J. Yates is at the helm. Andre Johnson has been hobbled all year. Mario Williams has been out since week five. And, to top it all off, there was a chance that Jake Delhomme could start in this game! The Texans backpedaled full speed into this postseason.
So what gives? Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates are both rookie quarterbacks; they cancel each other out. Both teams play great defense and have key injuries at imperative spots. Both backed in. The key measurable? Past performance. The last time these two teams played (week 14) it was a total defensive war. It was probably the most thrilling defensive game all season. Cincinnati made a few huge offensive plays but settled for field goals because Houston’s red zone defense was absolutely stellar. And this was all in Cincinnati. The Texans will be even better defensively at home this Saturday and manage the utmost yardage from its running game.

The bottom line: The Bengals just aren’t ready. They’re a solid team with youth at its key positions, and quite frankly, they benefited from a relatively easy schedule. The next few years might tell a different story.

The pick: Houston 27, Cincinnati 19 (Texans -3)

Saturday, Jan 7 – 8:00 PM ET
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

This game constitutes our first obvious dichotomy. The Lions seemed like they would either back into the playoffs or miss the playoffs altogether this season when they started showing their cursed and true colors (went 2-5 after starting the season 5-0), then they ripped off three straight, but finished the season by losing to the Matt Flynn-led Packers. The Saints did the complete opposite, as they finished the season 8-0 in both team record and record against the spread.

So what’s to question here? Well, the spread is currently sitting at 10.5 and the Lions love to come back in the second half, so garbage points or even a close fourth quarter is possible. The difference: the Saints don’t want to become a victim of what they suffered last season. The 7-9 Seahawks were 10.5-point underdogs last season at home against the Saints in the first round and won. Odd are, New Orleans is cognizant of that. Oh, and it’s probably not a good idea to bet against Drew Brees in prime time. That would be a horrible way to start your playoff picks.

The pick: New Orleans 38, Detroit 24 (Saints -10.5)

Sunday, Jan 8 – 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Here we go... The moment we’ve all been waiting for…
Actually, it’s just the moment I’ve been waiting for. My chance to bet against the Atlanta Falcons in the playoffs! The most mediocre team in the league! Atlanta’s 2011 road slate: wins over Seattle, Detroit, Indianapolis and Carolina. They lost to Tampa Bay on the road this year, got slaughtered by Chicago and fell to Houston and New Orleans. Their quality wins (home against the Eagles in week two and at Detroit in week seven) are well, not so quality. The epicenter of the offense aimlessly vacillates between Michael Turner and Matt Ryan’s weaponry. There isn’t one thing about this team you should like unless you expect them to play an absolutely perfect four quarters.

If you’re looking at this game from the Giants perspective, then you might have some reasons to be concerned. You don’t know which Eli Manning you’re going to get, and you don’t know if the secondary will be average or putrid (because it’s obviously never good). But there’s one thing you know you’re getting: A killer defensive line that can cause as much havoc as the Super Bowl team of 2007-08 did. It’s something worth betting on as a single entity right now. It’s that good. And if you’re worried about Manning, keep in mind that the Falcons secondary is possibly the most overrated in the NFL at 20th in the league.

The pick: New York 27, Atlanta 17 (Giants -3)

Sunday, Jan 8 – 4:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

The Broncos backed in as badly as the Bengals, losing three straight in ugly fashion to end the season while counting on Oakland’s loss to San Diego in the final week. The Steelers backed in too with less-than-stellar performances against the 49ers and Browns to end the season. So what gives in this one? The power and mystique of Tim Tebow.

Not really, but how can you give nine points and take a team with no Rashard Mendenhall, no Ryan Clark and a badly hobbled Ben Roethlisberger? The fabulous Denver pass rush will be too daunting and the Steelers will obviously be one-dimensional. The Broncos have looked horrific in past weeks, but this game has the makings of a close, low-scoring contest with the possibility of Tim Tebow being involved in the final minutes. If the line moves to 10 by Sunday, it would be hard not to go that route. The Steelers have had problems covering the spread against sub-par opponents all season (Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs and Browns, to name a few). Despite being a playoff team, the Broncos are one of those sub-par opponents. It’s difficult to see the Steelers actually falling to the Tebows, but it’s tough to foresee an offensive explosion from them considering the injuries they’re plagued with. We won’t have to worry about anyone backing into the divisional round, but the Steelers will certainly be limping their way there.

The pick: Pittsburgh 20, Denver 13 (Broncos +9)