SFE NFL Playoff Preview: Deciphering the Divisional Round

In sports, having a short-term memory is a good thing. This is the exact reason why I gloated about my current 4-0 playoff record against the spread for about 6 hours. I proceeded to stare at the divisional-round betting lines for about an hour each day this week, and I don’t think I’ll have clear, confident picks until I’m done writing this piece. The lines are exceedingly tough and every team provides a reason to be doubted. Betting is enjoyable when you have a clear-headed, strong-standing approach. This week's betting is nothing of the sort. Multiple angles and opinions are strewn across the internet, and everyday sports banter contains nothing close to a resounding, universal opinion. When there’s too much not to like, you have to go with your gut.

Saturday, Jan 14 – 4:30 PM ET
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

What’s not to like about the Saints: Two things: Defense, and playing on the road/outdoors. The New Orleans defense allowed five yards per attempt this season, which was 29th in the league. Not a good stat considering the San Francisco grind-it-out running attack and Frank Gore’s 4.3 yards per carry.

Playing on the road in Candlestick is a significant variable as well. When analyzing this game, it’s tough not to think back to New Orleans’ week 14 game in Tennessee in less-than-favorable conditions. Drew Brees could never really get into a rhythm until he unleashed a 35-yard touchdown strike to Marques Colston in the fourth quarter, and this was against a Titans defense that displays half the talent and staunchness of the 49ers. The Saints are a different team outside than they are at home in their dome, which was proven this season with imperfect performances in Carolina, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Granted, those games were early in the season, but the Saints have been riding a favorable schedule, playing in domes ever since. Their nine-game winning streak versus the spread will be in jeopardy this weekend.

What’s not to like about the 49ers: Alex Smith and the offense. Smith has only thrown five interceptions on the season, which is a staggering number for a player of such prior ineptitude. However, those numbers come within an offense that protects him from propelling that interception total. The Niners convey The Championship Philosophy finer than any remaining playoff team by grinding games out and sticking to their run-the-ball/stop-the-run identity, but what’s going to happen if Brees is clicking early and they have to play catch-up? Alex Smith isn’t the most trustworthy quarterback in commanding an offense by any stretch, especially when going through the air is virtually the only option. If the Niners are forced to go away from their identity early, they’ll be in huge trouble.

The verdict: It’s tough to see the 49ers straying away from their identity at home against a frail rush defense that finished the season -3 in turnover differential. That alone will take possessions away from Brees and company because San Francisco does an exceptional job of eating up clock in its offense. Brees usually takes a while to get going (which was exhibited in the first half against Detroit last week), so minimal possessions will be critical. The Niners are a solid all-around team in all three phases and have an outstanding coach at the helm. They’ll be ready. The defense definitely won’t take away all of Drew Brees’ options, but they’ll do a good job of not giving him everything he wants. This could ultimately be the best game of the weekend. Harbaugh and home-field hinge this one.

The pick: San Francisco 24, New Orleans 22 (49ers +4)

Saturday, Jan 14 – 8:00 PM ET
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

What’s not to like about the Patriots: The defense and secondary. It’s awful. No need to elaborate. Let’s move on.

What’s not to like about the Broncos: Tim Tebow. Let me explain before I get condemned for blasphemy. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tim Tebow. He’s probably the new-age messiah. But Bill Belichick isn’t dumb. He’s not going to stack eight players in the box. Tebow is going to be forced to throw the ball more than 21 times this week, which isn’t an auspicious position for the Denver offense to be in. The Broncos are at their best when the running game thrives, and so is Tim Tebow. That run-game will be unsustainable when Denver inevitably finds itself down by three touchdowns to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the second half.
The verdict: It’s tough to bet against Tebow with such a wide spread to consider (13.5), but the Broncos aren’t tailored to keep up with an offense like the Patriots. The defense would have to play immaculately, and Bill Belichick would have to commit a total coaching blunder. It’s tough to see both happening; Belichick is a post-bye week genius. And do you know what the best part about betting the Patriots in this game is? You won’t feel bad when you lose. Tebow Saves.

The pick: New England 45, Denver 23 (Patriots -13.5)

Sunday, Jan 15 – 1:00 PM ET
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

What’s not to like about the Texans: A rookie third-string quarterback versus the best defense in the NFL. Although he is a competent passer for a third-string rookie, T.J. Yates hasn’t exactly blown the roof off any buildings this year. He has played against the Cincinnati defense twice, but that’s the only solid defense he’s faced this season. The Ravens are good enough to stop Houston’s rushing staple, so Yates will likely have to take on a responsibility similar to the one he undertook in his first meeting against Cincinnati when he threw the ball 44 times. He fared well in that game, but that isn’t the optimal scenario for the Texans.

What’s not to like about the Ravens: Joe Flacco and the offense. The Ravens offense is as enigmatic as it gets. Sometimes it's horribly anemic until Ray Rice breaks a long run, other times it is very fluid with Flacco making nice throws. But most of the time, it’s the former. In other words, the Ravens have no offensive identity, which isn’t a good sign for a team with Super Bowl expectations.

The verdict: I can't back down now. I’ve been waiting for the moment to bet against the Ravens in the playoffs has much as I waited to bet against the Falcons last week. The stars are aligned for them to make a Super Bowl run with the Steelers out, and the humdrum Joe Flacco, along with his meager playoff resume (four touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven career games), is here to destruct Baltimore's orbit. The Texans defense is as relentless as it gets -- the Ravens will have a tough time getting everything they can out of Ray Rice. It’s tough to think T.J. Yates will be able to sift through the constant wave of Baltimore defenders, but he's not scared. He doesn’t know any better, and neither do the Texans. They have nothing to lose and a lot to prove after years of disappointing 8-8 seasons and failed sleeper selections. All the pressure is on Joe Flacco to kick down the door the Ravens have been knocking on all these years. The prospect of that happening is easy to bet against.

The pick: Houston 27, Baltimore 23 (Texans +7.5)

Sunday, Jan 15 – 4:30 PM ET
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

What’s not to like about the Giants: Not knowing which team will show up. Looking at the Giants’ schedule is egregiously confounding. They zigged and zagged more than any team in the league, and it seems like they make a trend of that every season. They’re peaking right now and "Smooooov" Eli Manning and his receivers share immeasurable chemistry right now, but it’s still always sketchy taking the Giants, especially if it’s against the best team in the NFL.

What’s not to like about the Packers: Injuries. However, the starting lineup will now be in full-force on both sides of the ball going into Sunday. So what’s not to like now that the offensive line is fully healthy? Just the defense. But the offense has been making up for defensive struggles all season.

However, the 2008 parallels are too much to ignore. The 2008 Giants were the closest to defeating the undefeated Patriots in the regular season; they were the closest this year to defeating the Packers before the Chiefs actually did. They ultimately upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl that year and they have the tools and momentum to do it to the Packers this year.

The verdict: The Giants are at their best when they feel disrespected, and a 7.5-point spread shows no respect (the line actually opened at 9). Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul is guaranteeing a win, Manning is playing at a high level, the team is coming together at the right time and they're boasting in nobody-believes-in-us fashion. The only thing that will deter them from completing the upset this time is Aaron Rodgers. He’s better now than Tom Brady was in that infamous 18-1 season. He’s the best football player in the world -- that shouldn’t be difficult to decipher. He’ll just have to show it in the final minutes, just as he did when these teams faced six weeks ago. What's not to like about that?
The pick: Green Bay 31, New York 28 (Giants +7.5)