Make No Mistake

Turnovers and big mistakes highlighted Sunday’s AFC and NFC championship games, rather than outstanding individual play or brilliant team performance. It was difficult not to feel empty inside or even a little depressed after all that transpired, whether you’re a fan of one of the teams that participated or not. Not one team played spectacularly, and not one specific player played exceptionally well outside of the New York Giants' Victor Cruz. Yes, the games were close and exhilarating late, but the outcomes were exasperating.

It’s easy to say that the NFL product has worsened due to the early playoff exoduses of the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s also easy to say that if football was played within a series format, those teams would’ve been at the forefront of Sunday’s games and we wouldn’t have had to witness Billy Cundiff’s horrific hook of a field goal for the Baltimore Ravens versus the New England Patriots and Kyle Williams’ disastrous overtime fumble for the San Francisco 49ers versus the Giants. It’s easy to say the best team in the NFL probably won’t be the one winning the Super Bowl.

But that’s not football. Coming away from Sunday’s games discontent is understandable, but making the game of football what you want it to be isn’t. The best part about the game is that preparation and execution preside over all else. Therefore, mistakes are a gigantic part of the game. They have the potential to render immense detriment to a team. Those who love basketball and love the series system don’t like that. Those who realize that the game of football is about striving for perfection, or at least the closest thing to it, do.

It wasn’t just the mistakes themselves that changed these games, but the abundance in which they were committed. For both the Ravens and 49ers, play calling turned out to be unstable enough to be mistake-riddled.

It started out early for San Francisco when the Niners dialed up a reverse play early in the first quarter amidst sloppy field conditions. Yes, this is minor compared to everything else that eventually transpired, but calling trick plays in the middle of a muddy mess of a football game probably isn’t something that’s going to pan out most of the time. Kyle Williams fumbled the ball on this play, but I don’t fault him at all for it. The call itself was far more indefensible.

The more important aspect of San Francisco’s play calling was its total blunder of a game plan. The 49ers finished the game 1/13 on third down, and Alex Smith only totaled 12 completions. He only completed one pass to an actual wide receiver. The team virtually gave up on Frank Gore despite proficiency in the running game when it was utilized. Drives seemed to only last about a minute and three-and-outs were aplenty. Give much credit to the New York Giants defense, but Frank Gore has no business rushing the ball under 25 times in a game comprised of horrible conditions where time of possession is key. Top that off with a struggling quarterback that might’ve reverted back to his true colors and you have yourself a complete lack of preparation as well as execution.

Baltimore’s play calling gaffe came on the final possession. Third-and-one on New England’s 14 yard-line, the Ravens dialed up a pass play that led to an incompletion, so they had to settle for the game-tying field goal attempt. The only problem: they had a timeout remaining. In the first quarter of this same game, Ray Rice converted a third-and-one on a run up the middle behind a brilliant second effort. There was no reason not to run a mirror image of that play again. If you don’t get it, you use the timeout and you kick the field goal regardless. If you get it, you give yourself at least two downs to take a shot at the end zone with roughly 15 seconds to work with. Instead, they called a pass and squandered the opportunity for a couple extra plays, settled for a field goal, and Billy Cundiff missed it. Now they’ll be sitting at home on Super Bowl Sunday like the rest of us.

Not capitalizing is considered a mistake as well. Joe Flacco can continue to bark back at the media all he wants, but until he makes deadly throws following his opponent’s mistakes, he won’t be seen as elite. That’s the difference between guys like him and Alex Smith and guys like Tom Brady and Eli Manning. It manifested on Sunday.

Brady seized the game on a fourth-and-goal end zone dive to put his team up 23-20 in the fourth quarter. It was filled with guile and no regard. The same went for Eli Manning and his plethora of pressure throws and third down conversions. He was on the ground more than Alex Smith was all game and still managed the resiliency and wherewithal to achieve key first downs in a game where the 49ers had stuffed everything else in the Giants offense. He didn't figure out a way to put the game away in regulation or the overtime period, but he was unequivocally the toughest player in the league last Sunday. The sentiments of his teammates ring true – he’s truly as tough as they come.

Some little things in these games made the world of difference, too. Imagine if Ted Ginn, Jr. had been healthy enough to return punts for the 49ers. Imagine if Julian Edelman didn’t have to play defensive back for the Patriots and cover Anquan Boldin in pressure situations down the stretch (it would’ve been the epicenter of defensive meltdown topics all week if Cundiff hadn’t missed that kick). Imagine if Brady didn’t painfully overthrow Rob Gronkowski for an easy touchdown in the first quarter, or loft floaters instead of darts, or get cocky after Flacco’s first interception and throw into double coverage in the end zone. Imagine if Lee Evans had just hauled in the touchdown pass that would’ve changed the perception of Joe Flacco. Imagine if the 49ers defensive backs hadn’t continually leveled each other on every interception opportunity. Imagine if Kyle Williams had just stayed away from his first muffed fumble instead of letting it take an awkward bounce towards his knee. Imagine if turnovers weren’t such an enormous factor.

And that’s the thing, turnovers and mistakes are monstrous factors. The playoffs are showing us these things in undeniable fashion. It showed when Andy Dalton threw three interceptions in the wild card round, when T.J. Yates threw four interceptions in the divisional round, when Green Bay committed four turnovers and New Orleans five upon their exits, and ended with mistakes by Baltimore and San Francisco capped off with a shanked field goal and a gut-wrenching fumble.

The Patriots and Giants haven’t made those types of mistakes, and they’ll be playing in a greatly anticipated Super Bowl XLII rematch because of it. Compound that with the greatness that they have shown, and the true football fan wouldn’t have it any other way. Make no mistake about it – the Giants and Patriots are truly the two best teams in the NFL.

Conference Championship Preview: Riding A Wave To Super Bowl XLVI

The more you immerse yourself in the NFL, the more you realize that it’s the quintessential week-to-week league. It’s impossible to successfully determine the outcome of an NFL game based on each team’s body of work alone. Remember when the Buffalo Bills started the season 4-1, while playing tough and even beating eventual playoff teams like New England? But then they lost to a New York Giants team in week six that desperately needed a bounce-back win after a terrible loss in Seattle. It should’ve been overwhelmingly expected. The Bills had been riding a wave of perpetually forced turnovers; the Giants had just lost to a downtrodden Seattle team by giving up 20 points in the fourth quarter due to inexplicable turnovers, and they had something to prove. You never want the Giants when they have something to prove. That’s one of many examples on how to approach the NFL when making predictions. If you’re into that sort of thing.

Well, the playoffs are no different. Talking heads are now starting to fall into their own naivety by making assumptions like, “Maybe the NFL is becoming like baseball and all the other sports, all you have to do is make the playoffs! As long as you get in, it’s all about getting hot and playing good football at the right time!”

But isn’t that what the whole season is about if you sincerely look at it through a microscope the way the media does come January? After that loss to the Giants, the Bills beat the hapless Redskins then followed that game by losing seven straight. Their juice ran out as soon as Ryan Fitzpatrick received his contract extension and they were one of the easiest teams to bet against all year. And that’s just one example. The Dolphins are probably the best one; they started off the season ahead in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes and ended it by putting money in bettors’ pockets.

Now, I’m going to try not to jinx it, but I’m doing pretty well in my playoff picks against the spread right now. It’s very hard not to look ahead but I’m forcefully restraining myself because, after all, this is a week-to-week league. It’s the same week-to-week league that saw the prominent Packers fall violently at home to the Giants and saw the Saints get smacked around by the vicious-hitting 49ers. Maybe some aspects were a little surprising (nobody expected the Packers to get beat down at home the way they did, and nobody expected Alex Smith to go blow-for-blow with Drew Brees), but enough was on the table to suggest that the Saints would struggle on the road outdoors (they did, and turnovers indicated so), and that the Giants were playing at a high level suited for competitive play against an elite team. That was enough to make the overall outcome of the divisional round unsurprising to those with cognizance of the week-to-week league known as the NFL.

If you ride a wave too long, it’s bound to swallow you up at some point. It was easy to look at the 15-1 Packers’ body of work and say they were going to ride an easy wave to the Super Bowl. They couldn’t sustain that body of work because no team ever does. Football is a sport that thrives off motivation, determination and execution as much, if not more than, talent and strategy. This creates ebbs and flows in a season, no matter what it ultimately amounts to. The challenge is being prepared for those slip-ups or looming ascensions and taking full advantage. Preparation is riding the right wave.

Sunday, Jan 22 – 3:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

By the time conference championships roll around, each of the four teams is either playing at its apex or is at the cusp of reaching it. This holds true for every team remaining right now, except for the Baltimore Ravens. Either that, or the Ravens are at their apex and just aren’t as good as the other three teams.

They had a chance to stick a fork in the Texans up 17-6 in the second quarter last week and couldn’t do it. They let Houston stick around and have a chance to win or at least tie the game in the fourth quarter, and the Texans ultimately covered the 7.5-point spread. The Baltimore offense has been anemic all season as well as predictable, which has translated to a very predictable team. Anemic offenses tend to be the catalyst for zig-zag teams as well, which made bets against them versus Seattle and San Diego virtual locks this season. The 2011-12 Ravens are a situational zig-zag team. Losses followed big wins and big wins followed losses. They beat Pittsburgh twice off sheer motivation, and those ended up being their biggest wins of the season excluding their beat down of San Francisco on Thanksgiving night. The rest of the season was highly unimpressive. Joe Flacco threw for over 300 passing yards only four times this year, and hasn’t done so since week nine in Pittsburgh. Is that the kind of offense that can keep up with a Patriots team that’s going to put up an inordinate amount of points no matter what defense they’re facing? Nope; and once again, I can’t back down now. This team (along with the Falcons) is the team I’ve been waiting to bet against in the playoffs all season, and I get to do it twice! Thank you, gambling gods.

As for the Patriots, there’s nothing to worry about with an amped-up Tom Brady under center. Brady is very similar to Kobe Bryant in that he feeds off his own ego. He finds weird ways to motivate himself. He remembers the 2010 beating they took to the Ravens at home very vividly. He’s going to shred the old and hobbling Baltimore defense (Ray Lewis is old and Ed Reed was hobbling all over the field last week). Moreover, could you think of any possible scenario where the Ravens stop the greatest tight end tandem in the history of the NFL? If Terrell Suggs is used in coverage, who’s going to get to Brady? If Suggs is used to rush the passer, who’s going to cover both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at the same time? Ostensibly, Ray Lewis will have to cover one of them; he would have a fit attempting to do so. That’s not good for a team that needs to hold the Patriots to at least 24 points to win.
All in all, the only thing you need to know about this game is that Tom Brady was anxiously awaiting kickoff by Wednesday. He said it’s all he’s thinking about until Sunday. That’s four days prior to the game. He’s a psychopath. Ride the wave of Psychopath Tom Brady.

The pick: New England 38, Baltimore 28 (Patriots -7)

Sunday, Jan 22 – 6:30 PM ET
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are flawlessly coached, destroy people on defense and stick to the Championship Philosophy. They run the ball and stuff the run. If anything, the 49ers are the team you’d pick to resurrect the roots of the Championship Philosophy and end this era of purely dominant quarterbacking. But the Giants are really good right now. Too good.

The Giants have been sort of an enigma over the years, playing at high levels and reverting back to exasperating performances in aimless fashion. They were no different this season. The popular hypothesis behind this is that the team has a habit of quitting on its coach. Some like to blame Eli Manning. But the big thing that needs to be noted here is that the core of this team obtains a championship mentality. They know what it takes to win. When the Pittsburgh Steelers look flat and everybody overlooks it, it’s because we all know that they’ll play up to par when it matters. For some reason, that same perception isn’t correlated with the Giants. It should be.

Not only is this team eerily similar to the one that won Super Bowl XLII, it’s better. It’s better because there’s more talent with players such as Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Jason Pierre-Paul and Antrel Rolle in the fold. It’s similar in that they obtain unwavering confidence as individuals and as a team. Call it trash talk if you wish, but even so, the trash talk is coming from all the right places and it's quite riveting.

Rolle did an exceptional job in coverage against the Packers last week and gets Vernon Davis this week after some back-and-forth banter between the two. Jason Pierre-Paul predicted a win last week, and who knows, he might do it again. But as the week draws closer to Sunday, the Giants’ trash talking has evolved into humble confidence. When Rolle was asked in Wednesday’s press conference what makes Vernon Davis so dangerous, he just chuckled and replied with: “You know, he’s an NFL tight end. He’s good at what he does” when he was obviously thinking, “I’m going to destroy him. There’s no way in hell he gets 180 receiving yards this week.” The rest of the team exuded the same quiet confidence in Wednesday’s press conference, even the guys who weren’t a part of Super Bowl XLII, most notably Rolle, Cruz and Nicks. A team like the Giants can be gauged heavily on its disposition throughout the week.

The Giants are capable of knocking some heads off the same way the Niners are. They’re capable of perfecting the Championship Philosophy the same way the Niners are. They don't care about the weather and field conditions that everybody thinks will be such a huge factor. They're playing on the road for their third straight playoff game, a familiar position for the leftover players from Super Bowl XLII. They're playing against a team they already faced and barely lost to this season (it's supremely tough to beat a team twice), which means they have something to prove. You don't want the Giants when they have something to prove. They fully believe in Eli Manning and could care less about the stomach bug he caught on Wednesday, answering questions with, “Nothing’s gonna stop him at this point. I’m pretty sure a lot of us feel the same way. He’s our leader,” and “I don’t think it’s gonna affect him at all. You know Eli, he’s as tough as they come.”

So ignore this team’s body of work. Instead, ride its wave of confidence.
The pick: New York 27, San Francisco 20 (Giants +2.5)

SFE NFL Playoff Preview: Deciphering the Divisional Round

In sports, having a short-term memory is a good thing. This is the exact reason why I gloated about my current 4-0 playoff record against the spread for about 6 hours. I proceeded to stare at the divisional-round betting lines for about an hour each day this week, and I don’t think I’ll have clear, confident picks until I’m done writing this piece. The lines are exceedingly tough and every team provides a reason to be doubted. Betting is enjoyable when you have a clear-headed, strong-standing approach. This week's betting is nothing of the sort. Multiple angles and opinions are strewn across the internet, and everyday sports banter contains nothing close to a resounding, universal opinion. When there’s too much not to like, you have to go with your gut.

Saturday, Jan 14 – 4:30 PM ET
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

What’s not to like about the Saints: Two things: Defense, and playing on the road/outdoors. The New Orleans defense allowed five yards per attempt this season, which was 29th in the league. Not a good stat considering the San Francisco grind-it-out running attack and Frank Gore’s 4.3 yards per carry.

Playing on the road in Candlestick is a significant variable as well. When analyzing this game, it’s tough not to think back to New Orleans’ week 14 game in Tennessee in less-than-favorable conditions. Drew Brees could never really get into a rhythm until he unleashed a 35-yard touchdown strike to Marques Colston in the fourth quarter, and this was against a Titans defense that displays half the talent and staunchness of the 49ers. The Saints are a different team outside than they are at home in their dome, which was proven this season with imperfect performances in Carolina, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Granted, those games were early in the season, but the Saints have been riding a favorable schedule, playing in domes ever since. Their nine-game winning streak versus the spread will be in jeopardy this weekend.

What’s not to like about the 49ers: Alex Smith and the offense. Smith has only thrown five interceptions on the season, which is a staggering number for a player of such prior ineptitude. However, those numbers come within an offense that protects him from propelling that interception total. The Niners convey The Championship Philosophy finer than any remaining playoff team by grinding games out and sticking to their run-the-ball/stop-the-run identity, but what’s going to happen if Brees is clicking early and they have to play catch-up? Alex Smith isn’t the most trustworthy quarterback in commanding an offense by any stretch, especially when going through the air is virtually the only option. If the Niners are forced to go away from their identity early, they’ll be in huge trouble.

The verdict: It’s tough to see the 49ers straying away from their identity at home against a frail rush defense that finished the season -3 in turnover differential. That alone will take possessions away from Brees and company because San Francisco does an exceptional job of eating up clock in its offense. Brees usually takes a while to get going (which was exhibited in the first half against Detroit last week), so minimal possessions will be critical. The Niners are a solid all-around team in all three phases and have an outstanding coach at the helm. They’ll be ready. The defense definitely won’t take away all of Drew Brees’ options, but they’ll do a good job of not giving him everything he wants. This could ultimately be the best game of the weekend. Harbaugh and home-field hinge this one.

The pick: San Francisco 24, New Orleans 22 (49ers +4)

Saturday, Jan 14 – 8:00 PM ET
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

What’s not to like about the Patriots: The defense and secondary. It’s awful. No need to elaborate. Let’s move on.

What’s not to like about the Broncos: Tim Tebow. Let me explain before I get condemned for blasphemy. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tim Tebow. He’s probably the new-age messiah. But Bill Belichick isn’t dumb. He’s not going to stack eight players in the box. Tebow is going to be forced to throw the ball more than 21 times this week, which isn’t an auspicious position for the Denver offense to be in. The Broncos are at their best when the running game thrives, and so is Tim Tebow. That run-game will be unsustainable when Denver inevitably finds itself down by three touchdowns to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the second half.
The verdict: It’s tough to bet against Tebow with such a wide spread to consider (13.5), but the Broncos aren’t tailored to keep up with an offense like the Patriots. The defense would have to play immaculately, and Bill Belichick would have to commit a total coaching blunder. It’s tough to see both happening; Belichick is a post-bye week genius. And do you know what the best part about betting the Patriots in this game is? You won’t feel bad when you lose. Tebow Saves.

The pick: New England 45, Denver 23 (Patriots -13.5)

Sunday, Jan 15 – 1:00 PM ET
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

What’s not to like about the Texans: A rookie third-string quarterback versus the best defense in the NFL. Although he is a competent passer for a third-string rookie, T.J. Yates hasn’t exactly blown the roof off any buildings this year. He has played against the Cincinnati defense twice, but that’s the only solid defense he’s faced this season. The Ravens are good enough to stop Houston’s rushing staple, so Yates will likely have to take on a responsibility similar to the one he undertook in his first meeting against Cincinnati when he threw the ball 44 times. He fared well in that game, but that isn’t the optimal scenario for the Texans.

What’s not to like about the Ravens: Joe Flacco and the offense. The Ravens offense is as enigmatic as it gets. Sometimes it's horribly anemic until Ray Rice breaks a long run, other times it is very fluid with Flacco making nice throws. But most of the time, it’s the former. In other words, the Ravens have no offensive identity, which isn’t a good sign for a team with Super Bowl expectations.

The verdict: I can't back down now. I’ve been waiting for the moment to bet against the Ravens in the playoffs has much as I waited to bet against the Falcons last week. The stars are aligned for them to make a Super Bowl run with the Steelers out, and the humdrum Joe Flacco, along with his meager playoff resume (four touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven career games), is here to destruct Baltimore's orbit. The Texans defense is as relentless as it gets -- the Ravens will have a tough time getting everything they can out of Ray Rice. It’s tough to think T.J. Yates will be able to sift through the constant wave of Baltimore defenders, but he's not scared. He doesn’t know any better, and neither do the Texans. They have nothing to lose and a lot to prove after years of disappointing 8-8 seasons and failed sleeper selections. All the pressure is on Joe Flacco to kick down the door the Ravens have been knocking on all these years. The prospect of that happening is easy to bet against.

The pick: Houston 27, Baltimore 23 (Texans +7.5)

Sunday, Jan 15 – 4:30 PM ET
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

What’s not to like about the Giants: Not knowing which team will show up. Looking at the Giants’ schedule is egregiously confounding. They zigged and zagged more than any team in the league, and it seems like they make a trend of that every season. They’re peaking right now and "Smooooov" Eli Manning and his receivers share immeasurable chemistry right now, but it’s still always sketchy taking the Giants, especially if it’s against the best team in the NFL.

What’s not to like about the Packers: Injuries. However, the starting lineup will now be in full-force on both sides of the ball going into Sunday. So what’s not to like now that the offensive line is fully healthy? Just the defense. But the offense has been making up for defensive struggles all season.

However, the 2008 parallels are too much to ignore. The 2008 Giants were the closest to defeating the undefeated Patriots in the regular season; they were the closest this year to defeating the Packers before the Chiefs actually did. They ultimately upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl that year and they have the tools and momentum to do it to the Packers this year.

The verdict: The Giants are at their best when they feel disrespected, and a 7.5-point spread shows no respect (the line actually opened at 9). Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul is guaranteeing a win, Manning is playing at a high level, the team is coming together at the right time and they're boasting in nobody-believes-in-us fashion. The only thing that will deter them from completing the upset this time is Aaron Rodgers. He’s better now than Tom Brady was in that infamous 18-1 season. He’s the best football player in the world -- that shouldn’t be difficult to decipher. He’ll just have to show it in the final minutes, just as he did when these teams faced six weeks ago. What's not to like about that?
The pick: Green Bay 31, New York 28 (Giants +7.5)

Coaching Matters, And So Does Tim Tebow

Wild Card Weekend wasn’t particularly wild until, well, you all know what happened last night. The internet blew up because of some Tebow guy, and the rest of this past weekend’s playoff games took a back seat to him. Since Tim Tebow presided the weekend, he’s taking center stage today. But let’s first look at what would’ve been the topic of conversation if he didn’t captivate the universe: Coaching travesties.

Coaching matters. If you don’t believe me, ask the Cincinnati Bengals (or their fans) how Marvin Lewis’ coaching performance on Saturday fared compared to, say, Sean Payton’s or John Fox’s.

With 10:44 left in the second quarter against the Houston Texans, Bengals running back Cedric Benson failed to achieve a first down on a second-and-two run play. Marvin Lewis decided to throw a challenge flag to dispute the spot of the ball.

Before we even get to the outcome of this challenge, why in the world would an NFL coach elect to challenge a ball spot just minutes into the second quarter in a PLAYOFF GAME? Referees make mistakes. They’re old and possessed by Roger Goodell in some way or another. They don’t make the right calls most of the time anymore. You’re telling me that you couldn’t use that challenge on something more significant later in the game? Sometime, say, in the second half? Lewis lost the challenge, then dialed up an Andy Dalton sneak and converted on third-and-one regardless. Nice challenge, Marvin. Gotta use 'em sometime.

When he did decide to use his second and final challenge, it was with five minutes remaining in the first half. Even better timing! Houston tight end Owen Daniels had made an exceptional catch while falling to the turf on third-and-four. The catch did seem refutable, but even so, a second challenge was not worth risking with a 10-7 lead in a tight game. The Bengals lost both challenges in meaningless moments, and the most meaningful moment happened minutes after the final challenge was lost – J.J. Watt’s interception at the line of scrimmage, which was returned for a touchdown just before half. Karma surfaced during a questionable Houston interception in a two-touchdown game with seven minutes remaining. But it couldn’t be challenged, because ball-spot disputes are more important.

But wait, we’re not done! In a 24-10 game with 13:30 remaining (still manageable for the Bengals because of their stout defense), Cincinnati lined up to punt on fourth-and-three. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak calls a timeout, and when the teams come out of that timeout, Marvin Lewis sends the offense out on the field! And you know what happens? Andy Dalton throws an interception.

The Bengals lost 31-10, and coaching probably wasn’t the only reason for the beating, but it sure had a lot to do with the demoralization of this team as the game progressed. As a player, you have to feel down every time your coach loses a challenge. If you think about it as a game of tug-of-war, it gradually pulls your confidence away. Once Dalton threw that pick on fourth-and-three, they fell in the pit. It was over. I didn’t even watch after that. I probably shouldn’t have watched the Falcons stink up the joint the next day either.

Head coach Mike Smith of the Atlanta Falcons chose to go for it twice on fourth down in field goal range against the Giants yesterday. Both were at key points in which the Falcons had the game in reach. Both were quarterback sneaks, one of which was in a formation with no running back behind quarterback Matt Ryan.

Smith elected to go for it the first time on fourth-and-one at the New York Giants’ 24-yard line to start the second quarter, then punted on the next possession on fourth-and-one and the Giants’ 42. Huh? That’s supposed to make sense? You would rather pooch punt in opposing territory than kick a field goal in more advantageous opposing territory? I don’t mind the pooch punt, but when you go for it the possession prior in that circumstance, it makes you look like you have absolutely no rhyme or reason to what you’re doing as a game manager. But wait, we’re not done!

Subsequent the second failed fourth down attempt, which came with 7:51 left in the third quarter, Eli Manning threw a 72-yard touchdown pass to Hakeem Nicks. It was a magnificent catch and run by Nicks, and it immediately followed Mike Smith’s final horrendous decision of the season. Karma calls. Nicks did the Dirty Bird after the touchdown in his honor. It was a fantastic sequence. The Falcons could’ve been down 10-8 at the end of the third quarter, instead they scored two points in the game for those two dumb fourth down calls.

So, obviously, coaching matters in the NFL. If Mike Smith gets fired in the next two years (which he should), some coach is going to stumble upon some nice talent. But you know what else matters? Tim Tebow. More than we could’ve ever imagined. He’s taken the world by storm and has found a place in my man-crush roster. Here are my favorite Tebow moments from last night’s game, followed by compelling reactions across the internet and from my friends:

Tebow’s 51-yard pass on third-and-12 at the beginning of the second quarter. Take a look at the meme on the right. This is the vaunted Conspiracy Keanu. Not only is this specific one hilarious, but there was also a very good chance that it was an accurate conspiracy theory before this play transpired. Tebow had been struggling all game until this beautiful deep bomb – his first of the game. It rendered everyone’s first “TEEEBOWWW!!!” exclamation of the night. He followed with an exceptionally gorgeous touchdown throw on the very next play to Eddie Royal, and we all started to believe that the Broncos could actually win. It was the first time you could say that about Denver and Tim Tebow before the fourth quarter all season.

Tebow’s touchdown run to extend Denver’s lead to 8 at 14-6. Tebow and Cam Newton are the best goal-to-go quarterbacks in the NFL. Newton is obviously better because his throwing ability is more of a concern for defenses, but when the Broncos are in those goal-to-go situations, a Tebow run out of the shotgun is virtually unstoppable. It’s exciting to watch every time because Tebow exudes determination through the entire run, and continues that passion until he’s done pouring out his adrenaline on the sidelines. If it’s not compelling to you, then I don’t know what else to say.

Tebow’s game-winning throw in overtime. Just watch it. It earned a spot on “The List” that still doesn’t have a name. He made it based on every single condition presented, most notably the “Pristine Nostalgia” condition and the overall reaction he caused. Who didn't yell "TEEEEEBOWWWWW!!!!" after that play? He made the new overtime rule insignificant because of it. And he blew up the internet. Here’s how it went down over my Twitter feed:

• “Of course. New overtime rules. Tebow. Of course” -- @LeBatardShow
• “I love how the new overtime rules are gonna lose their virginity with Tebow.” – Bill Simmons (Funniest tweet of the night.)
• “CRIZAZLEBEANS” – Jonah Keri (When the internet started to blow.)
• “!!!!” – Tony Reali
• “Swag. Them. Out” – Michael Smith
• “OMG. Really Tebow?” – Dylan Terry (That’s my brother. Follow him.)
• “Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! And good night” – Michelle Beadle
• “Oh my gracious!!!!!” – Marty Smith
• “TEBOWWWWWW!!!!!!” – Me
• “Wow!” – Chris Broussard
• “THE INTERNET IS ABOUT TO SHATTER!” – Jim Rome (Turns out it did. Tebow broke the record for sports-related tweets per second at 9,420. That’s an INSANE number.)
• “NO FUCKING WAY!!!!! Teeeeebowwwwww!” – my buddy Chris (Follow him. You’ll read some hilarious stuff from him below.)
• “Tebowtime trumped overtime.” – Adam Schefter
• “Of course” -- @LeBatardShow
• “Teeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-bowwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” – Bill Simmons
• “Like I said #TEBOW! Time to start Tebowing folks” – LeBron James
• “John Elway sold his soul to the devil for that win.” -- @JhovanyBrorez (Follow him. His tweets are all like this: They don’t always make total sense, which makes them hysterically funny.)
• “LOUD NOISES!!!!!!” -- @john_a_parker (Follow him. I know him through sacstatesports.com and this was a priceless tweet. Obvious Anchorman reference in the midst of the internet screaming Tebow. Brilliant.)
• “Turn it up to 11!” – Tony Reali (Woody Paige at his finest in that link.)
• “That was the quickest overtime game in NFL history, regular season or postseason" -- @ESPNStatsInfo
• “Dick TeBeau (LeBeau) never gave Tebow the respect he earned during this game. BACK YOUR SAFETIES UP. HOF coach got clowned today” – Jason Whitlock
• “Jesus has now moved all church services worldwide to Saturdays so he can watch Tim #Tebow” – My buddy Chris (again)
• “I Really Did Not Know Who Or What The Fuck A Tebow Was Until 4 Minutes Ago.” – Tyler, The Creator (Very significant because Tyler doesn’t care about much of anything.)
• “Tebow passed for 3:16 yards… I’ve seen fucking everything. Life is so much stranger than fiction” – Jason Whitlock (Yes, yes it is.)

I had a fantasy basketball draft a couple hours after the conclusion of the game. The fantasy drafts that my friends and I have are always the best. As you would expect, Tebow was the topic of conversation before it started. Here are the best Tebow-related quotes from our message thread:

My buddy Matt (in response to us talking about one of our fiends still hating Tebow): “Hating Tebow is like hating Jesus. Because Tebow is Jesus.”
Chris: “And if you hate Jesus, then you’re a dick. Tim Christ Jesus Tebow.”

Chris: “What would Tebow do? WWTD”

Matt: “Tebow 3:16 says, ‘For God Loved the world that he gave us Tebow’” (Follow him.)

Chris: “We will now have two Christmases because we will celebrate Tebow’s birthday. August 14 is a national holiday now”

Chris: “Is Tebow available in this draft?”
Matt: “He should be”
Chris: “Steve Francis is… That’s a hot pickup”
Me: “Tebow already go picked” (The draft hadn’t started yet.)
Chris: “Fuck”
Me: “Steve Martin > Steve Francis”

Me: “I can’t wait to write about Tebow tonight” (I got lazy and waited until today.)
Chris: “Tim Tebow Kaman Terry’s Mouth” (Inside joke relating to fantasy basketball team names with Chris Kaman involved. Example: Chris Kaman *insert name here*’s Mouth.)
Me: “I FOUND MY TEAM NAME!!!! THANK GOD FOR CHRIS!!!! And Tebow”
Matt: Thank Tebow for Chris. Thank Tebow for God.”

Yup, I’d say Tim Tebow matters.

Backing Into The NFL Playoff Preview

If you’re one for comparisons, you can compare me to a few NFL playoff teams because I’ve completely backed into one of my favorite series of columns. Every year, I preview each playoff match-up from every round and make picks against the spread. Last year I had a fantastic time with it, as I went 8-3 against the spread for the series and ultimately cashed out in Reno, thanks to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. This year, I might be going in a little rusty. Don’t get me wrong, I have a nice grasp of the league and I’m excited about that, but I didn’t wake up until the afternoon games last week (New Years), didn’t go anywhere to watch all the games the week before (so I tried to watch as many as I could illegally online), and I haven’t written anything in nearly a month. I just allowed the magnificence of my last piece to linger while simultaneously imitating the awesomeness of this meme.

So, we’ll preview the 2012 Wild Card round the only way we should: By discounting the teams that backed in most detrimentally, and giving merit to those that didn’t. Which means I’ve given no merit to myself as a human being over the last three weeks. Let’s move on.

Saturday, Jan 7 – 4:30 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Fitting that this is the first game of the weekend since this is the ultimate backing-in game. The Bengals simply had to win last week to secure a playoff spot. Instead, they lost to the Ravens and became the beneficiaries of Raiders and Jets losses. They finished the second half of their season with losses to the Steelers and Ravens twice, a loss to Houston and squeaked out close wins over the Browns, Rams and Cardinals. Not an impressive stretch.

Houston’s final stretch wasn’t so impressive either. They were 10-3 after fourteen weeks. They’re 10-6. They suffered losses to Carolina, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Rookie third-string quarterback T.J. Yates is at the helm. Andre Johnson has been hobbled all year. Mario Williams has been out since week five. And, to top it all off, there was a chance that Jake Delhomme could start in this game! The Texans backpedaled full speed into this postseason.
So what gives? Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates are both rookie quarterbacks; they cancel each other out. Both teams play great defense and have key injuries at imperative spots. Both backed in. The key measurable? Past performance. The last time these two teams played (week 14) it was a total defensive war. It was probably the most thrilling defensive game all season. Cincinnati made a few huge offensive plays but settled for field goals because Houston’s red zone defense was absolutely stellar. And this was all in Cincinnati. The Texans will be even better defensively at home this Saturday and manage the utmost yardage from its running game.

The bottom line: The Bengals just aren’t ready. They’re a solid team with youth at its key positions, and quite frankly, they benefited from a relatively easy schedule. The next few years might tell a different story.

The pick: Houston 27, Cincinnati 19 (Texans -3)

Saturday, Jan 7 – 8:00 PM ET
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

This game constitutes our first obvious dichotomy. The Lions seemed like they would either back into the playoffs or miss the playoffs altogether this season when they started showing their cursed and true colors (went 2-5 after starting the season 5-0), then they ripped off three straight, but finished the season by losing to the Matt Flynn-led Packers. The Saints did the complete opposite, as they finished the season 8-0 in both team record and record against the spread.

So what’s to question here? Well, the spread is currently sitting at 10.5 and the Lions love to come back in the second half, so garbage points or even a close fourth quarter is possible. The difference: the Saints don’t want to become a victim of what they suffered last season. The 7-9 Seahawks were 10.5-point underdogs last season at home against the Saints in the first round and won. Odd are, New Orleans is cognizant of that. Oh, and it’s probably not a good idea to bet against Drew Brees in prime time. That would be a horrible way to start your playoff picks.

The pick: New Orleans 38, Detroit 24 (Saints -10.5)

Sunday, Jan 8 – 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Here we go... The moment we’ve all been waiting for…
Actually, it’s just the moment I’ve been waiting for. My chance to bet against the Atlanta Falcons in the playoffs! The most mediocre team in the league! Atlanta’s 2011 road slate: wins over Seattle, Detroit, Indianapolis and Carolina. They lost to Tampa Bay on the road this year, got slaughtered by Chicago and fell to Houston and New Orleans. Their quality wins (home against the Eagles in week two and at Detroit in week seven) are well, not so quality. The epicenter of the offense aimlessly vacillates between Michael Turner and Matt Ryan’s weaponry. There isn’t one thing about this team you should like unless you expect them to play an absolutely perfect four quarters.

If you’re looking at this game from the Giants perspective, then you might have some reasons to be concerned. You don’t know which Eli Manning you’re going to get, and you don’t know if the secondary will be average or putrid (because it’s obviously never good). But there’s one thing you know you’re getting: A killer defensive line that can cause as much havoc as the Super Bowl team of 2007-08 did. It’s something worth betting on as a single entity right now. It’s that good. And if you’re worried about Manning, keep in mind that the Falcons secondary is possibly the most overrated in the NFL at 20th in the league.

The pick: New York 27, Atlanta 17 (Giants -3)

Sunday, Jan 8 – 4:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

The Broncos backed in as badly as the Bengals, losing three straight in ugly fashion to end the season while counting on Oakland’s loss to San Diego in the final week. The Steelers backed in too with less-than-stellar performances against the 49ers and Browns to end the season. So what gives in this one? The power and mystique of Tim Tebow.

Not really, but how can you give nine points and take a team with no Rashard Mendenhall, no Ryan Clark and a badly hobbled Ben Roethlisberger? The fabulous Denver pass rush will be too daunting and the Steelers will obviously be one-dimensional. The Broncos have looked horrific in past weeks, but this game has the makings of a close, low-scoring contest with the possibility of Tim Tebow being involved in the final minutes. If the line moves to 10 by Sunday, it would be hard not to go that route. The Steelers have had problems covering the spread against sub-par opponents all season (Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs and Browns, to name a few). Despite being a playoff team, the Broncos are one of those sub-par opponents. It’s difficult to see the Steelers actually falling to the Tebows, but it’s tough to foresee an offensive explosion from them considering the injuries they’re plagued with. We won’t have to worry about anyone backing into the divisional round, but the Steelers will certainly be limping their way there.

The pick: Pittsburgh 20, Denver 13 (Broncos +9)