The Fan Experience

Make No Mistake

2012-01-23T21:59:00.000-08:00

Turnovers and big mistakes highlighted Sunday’s AFC and NFC championship games, rather than outstanding individual play or brilliant team performance. It was difficult not to feel empty inside or even a little depressed after all that transpired, whether you’re a fan of one of the teams that participated or not. Not one team played spectacularly, and not one specific player played exceptionally well outside of the New York Giants' Victor Cruz. Yes, the games were close and exhilarating late, but the outcomes were exasperating.

It’s easy to say that the NFL product has worsened due to the early playoff exoduses of the Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s also easy to say that if football was played within a series format, those teams would’ve been at the forefront of Sunday’s games and we wouldn’t have had to witness Billy Cundiff’s horrific hook of a field goal for the Baltimore Ravens versus the New England Patriots and Kyle Williams’ disastrous overtime fumble for the San Francisco 49ers versus the Giants. It’s easy to say the best team in the NFL probably won’t be the one winning the Super Bowl.

But that’s not football. Coming away from Sunday’s games discontent is understandable, but making the game of football what you want it to be isn’t. The best part about the game is that preparation and execution preside over all else. Therefore, mistakes are a gigantic part of the game. They have the potential to render immense detriment to a team. Those who love basketball and love the series system don’t like that. Those who realize that the game of football is about striving for perfection, or at least the closest thing to it, do.

It wasn’t just the mistakes themselves that changed these games, but the abundance in which they were committed. For both the Ravens and 49ers, play calling turned out to be unstable enough to be mistake-riddled.

It started out early for San Francisco when the Niners dialed up a reverse play early in the first quarter amidst sloppy field conditions. Yes, this is minor compared to everything else that eventually transpired, but calling trick plays in the middle of a muddy mess of a football game probably isn’t something that’s going to pan out most of the time. Kyle Williams fumbled the ball on this play, but I don’t fault him at all for it. The call itself was far more indefensible.

The more important aspect of San Francisco’s play calling was its total blunder of a game plan. The 49ers finished the game 1/13 on third down, and Alex Smith only totaled 12 completions. He only completed one pass to an actual wide receiver. The team virtually gave up on Frank Gore despite proficiency in the running game when it was utilized. Drives seemed to only last about a minute and three-and-outs were aplenty. Give much credit to the New York Giants defense, but Frank Gore has no business rushing the ball under 25 times in a game comprised of horrible conditions where time of possession is key. Top that off with a struggling quarterback that might’ve reverted back to his true colors and you have yourself a complete lack of preparation as well as execution.

Baltimore’s play calling gaffe came on the final possession. Third-and-one on New England’s 14 yard-line, the Ravens dialed up a pass play that led to an incompletion, so they had to settle for the game-tying field goal attempt. The only problem: they had a timeout remaining. In the first quarter of this same game, Ray Rice converted a third-and-one on a run up the middle behind a brilliant second effort. There was no reason not to run a mirror image of that play again. If you don’t get it, you use the timeout and you kick the field goal regardless. If you get it, you give yourself at least two downs to take a shot at the end zone with roughly 15 seconds to work with. Instead, they called a pass and squandered the opportunity for a couple extra plays, settled for a field goal, and Billy Cundiff missed it. Now they’ll be sitting at home on Super Bowl Sunday like the rest of us.

Not capitalizing is considered a mistake as well. Joe Flacco can continue to bark back at the media all he wants, but until he makes deadly throws following his opponent’s mistakes, he won’t be seen as elite. That’s the difference between guys like him and Alex Smith and guys like Tom Brady and Eli Manning. It manifested on Sunday.

Brady seized the game on a fourth-and-goal end zone dive to put his team up 23-20 in the fourth quarter. It was filled with guile and no regard. The same went for Eli Manning and his plethora of pressure throws and third down conversions. He was on the ground more than Alex Smith was all game and still managed the resiliency and wherewithal to achieve key first downs in a game where the 49ers had stuffed everything else in the Giants offense. He didn't figure out a way to put the game away in regulation or the overtime period, but he was unequivocally the toughest player in the league last Sunday. The sentiments of his teammates ring true – he’s truly as tough as they come.

Some little things in these games made the world of difference, too. Imagine if Ted Ginn, Jr. had been healthy enough to return punts for the 49ers. Imagine if Julian Edelman didn’t have to play defensive back for the Patriots and cover Anquan Boldin in pressure situations down the stretch (it would’ve been the epicenter of defensive meltdown topics all week if Cundiff hadn’t missed that kick). Imagine if Brady didn’t painfully overthrow Rob Gronkowski for an easy touchdown in the first quarter, or loft floaters instead of darts, or get cocky after Flacco’s first interception and throw into double coverage in the end zone. Imagine if Lee Evans had just hauled in the touchdown pass that would’ve changed the perception of Joe Flacco. Imagine if the 49ers defensive backs hadn’t continually leveled each other on every interception opportunity. Imagine if Kyle Williams had just stayed away from his first muffed fumble instead of letting it take an awkward bounce towards his knee. Imagine if turnovers weren’t such an enormous factor.

And that’s the thing, turnovers and mistakes are monstrous factors. The playoffs are showing us these things in undeniable fashion. It showed when Andy Dalton threw three interceptions in the wild card round, when T.J. Yates threw four interceptions in the divisional round, when Green Bay committed four turnovers and New Orleans five upon their exits, and ended with mistakes by Baltimore and San Francisco capped off with a shanked field goal and a gut-wrenching fumble.

The Patriots and Giants haven’t made those types of mistakes, and they’ll be playing in a greatly anticipated Super Bowl XLII rematch because of it. Compound that with the greatness that they have shown, and the true football fan wouldn’t have it any other way. Make no mistake about it – the Giants and Patriots are truly the two best teams in the NFL.

Conference Championship Preview: Riding A Wave To Super Bowl XLVI

2012-01-19T17:55:00.000-08:00

The more you immerse yourself in the NFL, the more you realize that it’s the quintessential week-to-week league. It’s impossible to successfully determine the outcome of an NFL game based on each team’s body of work alone. Remember when the Buffalo Bills started the season 4-1, while playing tough and even beating eventual playoff teams like New England? But then they lost to a New York Giants team in week six that desperately needed a bounce-back win after a terrible loss in Seattle. It should’ve been overwhelmingly expected. The Bills had been riding a wave of perpetually forced turnovers; the Giants had just lost to a downtrodden Seattle team by giving up 20 points in the fourth quarter due to inexplicable turnovers, and they had something to prove. You never want the Giants when they have something to prove. That’s one of many examples on how to approach the NFL when making predictions. If you’re into that sort of thing.

Well, the playoffs are no different. Talking heads are now starting to fall into their own naivety by making assumptions like, “Maybe the NFL is becoming like baseball and all the other sports, all you have to do is make the playoffs! As long as you get in, it’s all about getting hot and playing good football at the right time!”

But isn’t that what the whole season is about if you sincerely look at it through a microscope the way the media does come January? After that loss to the Giants, the Bills beat the hapless Redskins then followed that game by losing seven straight. Their juice ran out as soon as Ryan Fitzpatrick received his contract extension and they were one of the easiest teams to bet against all year. And that’s just one example. The Dolphins are probably the best one; they started off the season ahead in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes and ended it by putting money in bettors’ pockets.

Now, I’m going to try not to jinx it, but I’m doing pretty well in my playoff picks against the spread right now. It’s very hard not to look ahead but I’m forcefully restraining myself because, after all, this is a week-to-week league. It’s the same week-to-week league that saw the prominent Packers fall violently at home to the Giants and saw the Saints get smacked around by the vicious-hitting 49ers. Maybe some aspects were a little surprising (nobody expected the Packers to get beat down at home the way they did, and nobody expected Alex Smith to go blow-for-blow with Drew Brees), but enough was on the table to suggest that the Saints would struggle on the road outdoors (they did, and turnovers indicated so), and that the Giants were playing at a high level suited for competitive play against an elite team. That was enough to make the overall outcome of the divisional round unsurprising to those with cognizance of the week-to-week league known as the NFL.

If you ride a wave too long, it’s bound to swallow you up at some point. It was easy to look at the 15-1 Packers’ body of work and say they were going to ride an easy wave to the Super Bowl. They couldn’t sustain that body of work because no team ever does. Football is a sport that thrives off motivation, determination and execution as much, if not more than, talent and strategy. This creates ebbs and flows in a season, no matter what it ultimately amounts to. The challenge is being prepared for those slip-ups or looming ascensions and taking full advantage. Preparation is riding the right wave.

Sunday, Jan 22 – 3:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

By the time conference championships roll around, each of the four teams is either playing at its apex or is at the cusp of reaching it. This holds true for every team remaining right now, except for the Baltimore Ravens. Either that, or the Ravens are at their apex and just aren’t as good as the other three teams.

They had a chance to stick a fork in the Texans up 17-6 in the second quarter last week and couldn’t do it. They let Houston stick around and have a chance to win or at least tie the game in the fourth quarter, and the Texans ultimately covered the 7.5-point spread. The Baltimore offense has been anemic all season as well as predictable, which has translated to a very predictable team. Anemic offenses tend to be the catalyst for zig-zag teams as well, which made bets against them versus Seattle and San Diego virtual locks this season. The 2011-12 Ravens are a situational zig-zag team. Losses followed big wins and big wins followed losses. They beat Pittsburgh twice off sheer motivation, and those ended up being their biggest wins of the season excluding their beat down of San Francisco on Thanksgiving night. The rest of the season was highly unimpressive. Joe Flacco threw for over 300 passing yards only four times this year, and hasn’t done so since week nine in Pittsburgh. Is that the kind of offense that can keep up with a Patriots team that’s going to put up an inordinate amount of points no matter what defense they’re facing? Nope; and once again, I can’t back down now. This team (along with the Falcons) is the team I’ve been waiting to bet against in the playoffs all season, and I get to do it twice! Thank you, gambling gods.

As for the Patriots, there’s nothing to worry about with an amped-up Tom Brady under center. Brady is very similar to Kobe Bryant in that he feeds off his own ego. He finds weird ways to motivate himself. He remembers the 2010 beating they took to the Ravens at home very vividly. He’s going to shred the old and hobbling Baltimore defense (Ray Lewis is old and Ed Reed was hobbling all over the field last week). Moreover, could you think of any possible scenario where the Ravens stop the greatest tight end tandem in the history of the NFL? If Terrell Suggs is used in coverage, who’s going to get to Brady? If Suggs is used to rush the passer, who’s going to cover both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez at the same time? Ostensibly, Ray Lewis will have to cover one of them; he would have a fit attempting to do so. That’s not good for a team that needs to hold the Patriots to at least 24 points to win.
All in all, the only thing you need to know about this game is that Tom Brady was anxiously awaiting kickoff by Wednesday. He said it’s all he’s thinking about until Sunday. That’s four days prior to the game. He’s a psychopath. Ride the wave of Psychopath Tom Brady.

The pick: New England 38, Baltimore 28 (Patriots -7)

Sunday, Jan 22 – 6:30 PM ET
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are flawlessly coached, destroy people on defense and stick to the Championship Philosophy. They run the ball and stuff the run. If anything, the 49ers are the team you’d pick to resurrect the roots of the Championship Philosophy and end this era of purely dominant quarterbacking. But the Giants are really good right now. Too good.

The Giants have been sort of an enigma over the years, playing at high levels and reverting back to exasperating performances in aimless fashion. They were no different this season. The popular hypothesis behind this is that the team has a habit of quitting on its coach. Some like to blame Eli Manning. But the big thing that needs to be noted here is that the core of this team obtains a championship mentality. They know what it takes to win. When the Pittsburgh Steelers look flat and everybody overlooks it, it’s because we all know that they’ll play up to par when it matters. For some reason, that same perception isn’t correlated with the Giants. It should be.

Not only is this team eerily similar to the one that won Super Bowl XLII, it’s better. It’s better because there’s more talent with players such as Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Jason Pierre-Paul and Antrel Rolle in the fold. It’s similar in that they obtain unwavering confidence as individuals and as a team. Call it trash talk if you wish, but even so, the trash talk is coming from all the right places and it's quite riveting.

Rolle did an exceptional job in coverage against the Packers last week and gets Vernon Davis this week after some back-and-forth banter between the two. Jason Pierre-Paul predicted a win last week, and who knows, he might do it again. But as the week draws closer to Sunday, the Giants’ trash talking has evolved into humble confidence. When Rolle was asked in Wednesday’s press conference what makes Vernon Davis so dangerous, he just chuckled and replied with: “You know, he’s an NFL tight end. He’s good at what he does” when he was obviously thinking, “I’m going to destroy him. There’s no way in hell he gets 180 receiving yards this week.” The rest of the team exuded the same quiet confidence in Wednesday’s press conference, even the guys who weren’t a part of Super Bowl XLII, most notably Rolle, Cruz and Nicks. A team like the Giants can be gauged heavily on its disposition throughout the week.

The Giants are capable of knocking some heads off the same way the Niners are. They’re capable of perfecting the Championship Philosophy the same way the Niners are. They don't care about the weather and field conditions that everybody thinks will be such a huge factor. They're playing on the road for their third straight playoff game, a familiar position for the leftover players from Super Bowl XLII. They're playing against a team they already faced and barely lost to this season (it's supremely tough to beat a team twice), which means they have something to prove. You don't want the Giants when they have something to prove. They fully believe in Eli Manning and could care less about the stomach bug he caught on Wednesday, answering questions with, “Nothing’s gonna stop him at this point. I’m pretty sure a lot of us feel the same way. He’s our leader,” and “I don’t think it’s gonna affect him at all. You know Eli, he’s as tough as they come.”

So ignore this team’s body of work. Instead, ride its wave of confidence.
The pick: New York 27, San Francisco 20 (Giants +2.5)

SFE NFL Playoff Preview: Deciphering the Divisional Round

2012-01-12T15:07:00.000-08:00

In sports, having a short-term memory is a good thing. This is the exact reason why I gloated about my current 4-0 playoff record against the spread for about 6 hours. I proceeded to stare at the divisional-round betting lines for about an hour each day this week, and I don’t think I’ll have clear, confident picks until I’m done writing this piece. The lines are exceedingly tough and every team provides a reason to be doubted. Betting is enjoyable when you have a clear-headed, strong-standing approach. This week's betting is nothing of the sort. Multiple angles and opinions are strewn across the internet, and everyday sports banter contains nothing close to a resounding, universal opinion. When there’s too much not to like, you have to go with your gut.

Saturday, Jan 14 – 4:30 PM ET
New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

What’s not to like about the Saints: Two things: Defense, and playing on the road/outdoors. The New Orleans defense allowed five yards per attempt this season, which was 29th in the league. Not a good stat considering the San Francisco grind-it-out running attack and Frank Gore’s 4.3 yards per carry.

Playing on the road in Candlestick is a significant variable as well. When analyzing this game, it’s tough not to think back to New Orleans’ week 14 game in Tennessee in less-than-favorable conditions. Drew Brees could never really get into a rhythm until he unleashed a 35-yard touchdown strike to Marques Colston in the fourth quarter, and this was against a Titans defense that displays half the talent and staunchness of the 49ers. The Saints are a different team outside than they are at home in their dome, which was proven this season with imperfect performances in Carolina, Tampa Bay and Tennessee. Granted, those games were early in the season, but the Saints have been riding a favorable schedule, playing in domes ever since. Their nine-game winning streak versus the spread will be in jeopardy this weekend.

What’s not to like about the 49ers: Alex Smith and the offense. Smith has only thrown five interceptions on the season, which is a staggering number for a player of such prior ineptitude. However, those numbers come within an offense that protects him from propelling that interception total. The Niners convey The Championship Philosophy finer than any remaining playoff team by grinding games out and sticking to their run-the-ball/stop-the-run identity, but what’s going to happen if Brees is clicking early and they have to play catch-up? Alex Smith isn’t the most trustworthy quarterback in commanding an offense by any stretch, especially when going through the air is virtually the only option. If the Niners are forced to go away from their identity early, they’ll be in huge trouble.

The verdict: It’s tough to see the 49ers straying away from their identity at home against a frail rush defense that finished the season -3 in turnover differential. That alone will take possessions away from Brees and company because San Francisco does an exceptional job of eating up clock in its offense. Brees usually takes a while to get going (which was exhibited in the first half against Detroit last week), so minimal possessions will be critical. The Niners are a solid all-around team in all three phases and have an outstanding coach at the helm. They’ll be ready. The defense definitely won’t take away all of Drew Brees’ options, but they’ll do a good job of not giving him everything he wants. This could ultimately be the best game of the weekend. Harbaugh and home-field hinge this one.

The pick: San Francisco 24, New Orleans 22 (49ers +4)

Saturday, Jan 14 – 8:00 PM ET
Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

What’s not to like about the Patriots: The defense and secondary. It’s awful. No need to elaborate. Let’s move on.

What’s not to like about the Broncos: Tim Tebow. Let me explain before I get condemned for blasphemy. Don’t get me wrong, I love Tim Tebow. He’s probably the new-age messiah. But Bill Belichick isn’t dumb. He’s not going to stack eight players in the box. Tebow is going to be forced to throw the ball more than 21 times this week, which isn’t an auspicious position for the Denver offense to be in. The Broncos are at their best when the running game thrives, and so is Tim Tebow. That run-game will be unsustainable when Denver inevitably finds itself down by three touchdowns to Tom Brady and the Patriots in the second half.
The verdict: It’s tough to bet against Tebow with such a wide spread to consider (13.5), but the Broncos aren’t tailored to keep up with an offense like the Patriots. The defense would have to play immaculately, and Bill Belichick would have to commit a total coaching blunder. It’s tough to see both happening; Belichick is a post-bye week genius. And do you know what the best part about betting the Patriots in this game is? You won’t feel bad when you lose. Tebow Saves.

The pick: New England 45, Denver 23 (Patriots -13.5)

Sunday, Jan 15 – 1:00 PM ET
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

What’s not to like about the Texans: A rookie third-string quarterback versus the best defense in the NFL. Although he is a competent passer for a third-string rookie, T.J. Yates hasn’t exactly blown the roof off any buildings this year. He has played against the Cincinnati defense twice, but that’s the only solid defense he’s faced this season. The Ravens are good enough to stop Houston’s rushing staple, so Yates will likely have to take on a responsibility similar to the one he undertook in his first meeting against Cincinnati when he threw the ball 44 times. He fared well in that game, but that isn’t the optimal scenario for the Texans.

What’s not to like about the Ravens: Joe Flacco and the offense. The Ravens offense is as enigmatic as it gets. Sometimes it's horribly anemic until Ray Rice breaks a long run, other times it is very fluid with Flacco making nice throws. But most of the time, it’s the former. In other words, the Ravens have no offensive identity, which isn’t a good sign for a team with Super Bowl expectations.

The verdict: I can't back down now. I’ve been waiting for the moment to bet against the Ravens in the playoffs has much as I waited to bet against the Falcons last week. The stars are aligned for them to make a Super Bowl run with the Steelers out, and the humdrum Joe Flacco, along with his meager playoff resume (four touchdowns and seven interceptions in seven career games), is here to destruct Baltimore's orbit. The Texans defense is as relentless as it gets -- the Ravens will have a tough time getting everything they can out of Ray Rice. It’s tough to think T.J. Yates will be able to sift through the constant wave of Baltimore defenders, but he's not scared. He doesn’t know any better, and neither do the Texans. They have nothing to lose and a lot to prove after years of disappointing 8-8 seasons and failed sleeper selections. All the pressure is on Joe Flacco to kick down the door the Ravens have been knocking on all these years. The prospect of that happening is easy to bet against.

The pick: Houston 27, Baltimore 23 (Texans +7.5)

Sunday, Jan 15 – 4:30 PM ET
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

What’s not to like about the Giants: Not knowing which team will show up. Looking at the Giants’ schedule is egregiously confounding. They zigged and zagged more than any team in the league, and it seems like they make a trend of that every season. They’re peaking right now and "Smooooov" Eli Manning and his receivers share immeasurable chemistry right now, but it’s still always sketchy taking the Giants, especially if it’s against the best team in the NFL.

What’s not to like about the Packers: Injuries. However, the starting lineup will now be in full-force on both sides of the ball going into Sunday. So what’s not to like now that the offensive line is fully healthy? Just the defense. But the offense has been making up for defensive struggles all season.

However, the 2008 parallels are too much to ignore. The 2008 Giants were the closest to defeating the undefeated Patriots in the regular season; they were the closest this year to defeating the Packers before the Chiefs actually did. They ultimately upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl that year and they have the tools and momentum to do it to the Packers this year.

The verdict: The Giants are at their best when they feel disrespected, and a 7.5-point spread shows no respect (the line actually opened at 9). Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul is guaranteeing a win, Manning is playing at a high level, the team is coming together at the right time and they're boasting in nobody-believes-in-us fashion. The only thing that will deter them from completing the upset this time is Aaron Rodgers. He’s better now than Tom Brady was in that infamous 18-1 season. He’s the best football player in the world -- that shouldn’t be difficult to decipher. He’ll just have to show it in the final minutes, just as he did when these teams faced six weeks ago. What's not to like about that?
The pick: Green Bay 31, New York 28 (Giants +7.5)

Coaching Matters, And So Does Tim Tebow

2012-01-09T14:56:00.000-08:00

Wild Card Weekend wasn’t particularly wild until, well, you all know what happened last night. The internet blew up because of some Tebow guy, and the rest of this past weekend’s playoff games took a back seat to him. Since Tim Tebow presided the weekend, he’s taking center stage today. But let’s first look at what would’ve been the topic of conversation if he didn’t captivate the universe: Coaching travesties.

Coaching matters. If you don’t believe me, ask the Cincinnati Bengals (or their fans) how Marvin Lewis’ coaching performance on Saturday fared compared to, say, Sean Payton’s or John Fox’s.

With 10:44 left in the second quarter against the Houston Texans, Bengals running back Cedric Benson failed to achieve a first down on a second-and-two run play. Marvin Lewis decided to throw a challenge flag to dispute the spot of the ball.

Before we even get to the outcome of this challenge, why in the world would an NFL coach elect to challenge a ball spot just minutes into the second quarter in a PLAYOFF GAME? Referees make mistakes. They’re old and possessed by Roger Goodell in some way or another. They don’t make the right calls most of the time anymore. You’re telling me that you couldn’t use that challenge on something more significant later in the game? Sometime, say, in the second half? Lewis lost the challenge, then dialed up an Andy Dalton sneak and converted on third-and-one regardless. Nice challenge, Marvin. Gotta use 'em sometime.

When he did decide to use his second and final challenge, it was with five minutes remaining in the first half. Even better timing! Houston tight end Owen Daniels had made an exceptional catch while falling to the turf on third-and-four. The catch did seem refutable, but even so, a second challenge was not worth risking with a 10-7 lead in a tight game. The Bengals lost both challenges in meaningless moments, and the most meaningful moment happened minutes after the final challenge was lost – J.J. Watt’s interception at the line of scrimmage, which was returned for a touchdown just before half. Karma surfaced during a questionable Houston interception in a two-touchdown game with seven minutes remaining. But it couldn’t be challenged, because ball-spot disputes are more important.

But wait, we’re not done! In a 24-10 game with 13:30 remaining (still manageable for the Bengals because of their stout defense), Cincinnati lined up to punt on fourth-and-three. Texans head coach Gary Kubiak calls a timeout, and when the teams come out of that timeout, Marvin Lewis sends the offense out on the field! And you know what happens? Andy Dalton throws an interception.

The Bengals lost 31-10, and coaching probably wasn’t the only reason for the beating, but it sure had a lot to do with the demoralization of this team as the game progressed. As a player, you have to feel down every time your coach loses a challenge. If you think about it as a game of tug-of-war, it gradually pulls your confidence away. Once Dalton threw that pick on fourth-and-three, they fell in the pit. It was over. I didn’t even watch after that. I probably shouldn’t have watched the Falcons stink up the joint the next day either.

Head coach Mike Smith of the Atlanta Falcons chose to go for it twice on fourth down in field goal range against the Giants yesterday. Both were at key points in which the Falcons had the game in reach. Both were quarterback sneaks, one of which was in a formation with no running back behind quarterback Matt Ryan.

Smith elected to go for it the first time on fourth-and-one at the New York Giants’ 24-yard line to start the second quarter, then punted on the next possession on fourth-and-one and the Giants’ 42. Huh? That’s supposed to make sense? You would rather pooch punt in opposing territory than kick a field goal in more advantageous opposing territory? I don’t mind the pooch punt, but when you go for it the possession prior in that circumstance, it makes you look like you have absolutely no rhyme or reason to what you’re doing as a game manager. But wait, we’re not done!

Subsequent the second failed fourth down attempt, which came with 7:51 left in the third quarter, Eli Manning threw a 72-yard touchdown pass to Hakeem Nicks. It was a magnificent catch and run by Nicks, and it immediately followed Mike Smith’s final horrendous decision of the season. Karma calls. Nicks did the Dirty Bird after the touchdown in his honor. It was a fantastic sequence. The Falcons could’ve been down 10-8 at the end of the third quarter, instead they scored two points in the game for those two dumb fourth down calls.

So, obviously, coaching matters in the NFL. If Mike Smith gets fired in the next two years (which he should), some coach is going to stumble upon some nice talent. But you know what else matters? Tim Tebow. More than we could’ve ever imagined. He’s taken the world by storm and has found a place in my man-crush roster. Here are my favorite Tebow moments from last night’s game, followed by compelling reactions across the internet and from my friends:

Tebow’s 51-yard pass on third-and-12 at the beginning of the second quarter. Take a look at the meme on the right. This is the vaunted Conspiracy Keanu. Not only is this specific one hilarious, but there was also a very good chance that it was an accurate conspiracy theory before this play transpired. Tebow had been struggling all game until this beautiful deep bomb – his first of the game. It rendered everyone’s first “TEEEBOWWW!!!” exclamation of the night. He followed with an exceptionally gorgeous touchdown throw on the very next play to Eddie Royal, and we all started to believe that the Broncos could actually win. It was the first time you could say that about Denver and Tim Tebow before the fourth quarter all season.

Tebow’s touchdown run to extend Denver’s lead to 8 at 14-6. Tebow and Cam Newton are the best goal-to-go quarterbacks in the NFL. Newton is obviously better because his throwing ability is more of a concern for defenses, but when the Broncos are in those goal-to-go situations, a Tebow run out of the shotgun is virtually unstoppable. It’s exciting to watch every time because Tebow exudes determination through the entire run, and continues that passion until he’s done pouring out his adrenaline on the sidelines. If it’s not compelling to you, then I don’t know what else to say.

Tebow’s game-winning throw in overtime. Just watch it. It earned a spot on “The List” that still doesn’t have a name. He made it based on every single condition presented, most notably the “Pristine Nostalgia” condition and the overall reaction he caused. Who didn't yell "TEEEEEBOWWWWW!!!!" after that play? He made the new overtime rule insignificant because of it. And he blew up the internet. Here’s how it went down over my Twitter feed:

• “Of course. New overtime rules. Tebow. Of course” -- @LeBatardShow
• “I love how the new overtime rules are gonna lose their virginity with Tebow.” – Bill Simmons (Funniest tweet of the night.)
• “CRIZAZLEBEANS” – Jonah Keri (When the internet started to blow.)
• “!!!!” – Tony Reali
• “Swag. Them. Out” – Michael Smith
• “OMG. Really Tebow?” – Dylan Terry (That’s my brother. Follow him.)
• “Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! And good night” – Michelle Beadle
• “Oh my gracious!!!!!” – Marty Smith
• “TEBOWWWWWW!!!!!!” – Me
• “Wow!” – Chris Broussard
• “THE INTERNET IS ABOUT TO SHATTER!” – Jim Rome (Turns out it did. Tebow broke the record for sports-related tweets per second at 9,420. That’s an INSANE number.)
• “NO FUCKING WAY!!!!! Teeeeebowwwwww!” – my buddy Chris (Follow him. You’ll read some hilarious stuff from him below.)
• “Tebowtime trumped overtime.” – Adam Schefter
• “Of course” -- @LeBatardShow
• “Teeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee-bowwwwwwwwwwwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” – Bill Simmons
• “Like I said #TEBOW! Time to start Tebowing folks” – LeBron James
• “John Elway sold his soul to the devil for that win.” -- @JhovanyBrorez (Follow him. His tweets are all like this: They don’t always make total sense, which makes them hysterically funny.)
• “LOUD NOISES!!!!!!” -- @john_a_parker (Follow him. I know him through sacstatesports.com and this was a priceless tweet. Obvious Anchorman reference in the midst of the internet screaming Tebow. Brilliant.)
• “Turn it up to 11!” – Tony Reali (Woody Paige at his finest in that link.)
• “That was the quickest overtime game in NFL history, regular season or postseason" -- @ESPNStatsInfo
• “Dick TeBeau (LeBeau) never gave Tebow the respect he earned during this game. BACK YOUR SAFETIES UP. HOF coach got clowned today” – Jason Whitlock
• “Jesus has now moved all church services worldwide to Saturdays so he can watch Tim #Tebow” – My buddy Chris (again)
• “I Really Did Not Know Who Or What The Fuck A Tebow Was Until 4 Minutes Ago.” – Tyler, The Creator (Very significant because Tyler doesn’t care about much of anything.)
• “Tebow passed for 3:16 yards… I’ve seen fucking everything. Life is so much stranger than fiction” – Jason Whitlock (Yes, yes it is.)

I had a fantasy basketball draft a couple hours after the conclusion of the game. The fantasy drafts that my friends and I have are always the best. As you would expect, Tebow was the topic of conversation before it started. Here are the best Tebow-related quotes from our message thread:

My buddy Matt (in response to us talking about one of our fiends still hating Tebow): “Hating Tebow is like hating Jesus. Because Tebow is Jesus.”
Chris: “And if you hate Jesus, then you’re a dick. Tim Christ Jesus Tebow.”

Chris: “What would Tebow do? WWTD”

Matt: “Tebow 3:16 says, ‘For God Loved the world that he gave us Tebow’” (Follow him.)

Chris: “We will now have two Christmases because we will celebrate Tebow’s birthday. August 14 is a national holiday now”

Chris: “Is Tebow available in this draft?”
Matt: “He should be”
Chris: “Steve Francis is… That’s a hot pickup”
Me: “Tebow already go picked” (The draft hadn’t started yet.)
Chris: “Fuck”
Me: “Steve Martin > Steve Francis”

Me: “I can’t wait to write about Tebow tonight” (I got lazy and waited until today.)
Chris: “Tim Tebow Kaman Terry’s Mouth” (Inside joke relating to fantasy basketball team names with Chris Kaman involved. Example: Chris Kaman *insert name here*’s Mouth.)
Me: “I FOUND MY TEAM NAME!!!! THANK GOD FOR CHRIS!!!! And Tebow”
Matt: Thank Tebow for Chris. Thank Tebow for God.”

Yup, I’d say Tim Tebow matters.

Backing Into The NFL Playoff Preview

2012-01-05T10:43:00.000-08:00

If you’re one for comparisons, you can compare me to a few NFL playoff teams because I’ve completely backed into one of my favorite series of columns. Every year, I preview each playoff match-up from every round and make picks against the spread. Last year I had a fantastic time with it, as I went 8-3 against the spread for the series and ultimately cashed out in Reno, thanks to Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. This year, I might be going in a little rusty. Don’t get me wrong, I have a nice grasp of the league and I’m excited about that, but I didn’t wake up until the afternoon games last week (New Years), didn’t go anywhere to watch all the games the week before (so I tried to watch as many as I could illegally online), and I haven’t written anything in nearly a month. I just allowed the magnificence of my last piece to linger while simultaneously imitating the awesomeness of this meme.

So, we’ll preview the 2012 Wild Card round the only way we should: By discounting the teams that backed in most detrimentally, and giving merit to those that didn’t. Which means I’ve given no merit to myself as a human being over the last three weeks. Let’s move on.

Saturday, Jan 7 – 4:30 PM ET
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans

Fitting that this is the first game of the weekend since this is the ultimate backing-in game. The Bengals simply had to win last week to secure a playoff spot. Instead, they lost to the Ravens and became the beneficiaries of Raiders and Jets losses. They finished the second half of their season with losses to the Steelers and Ravens twice, a loss to Houston and squeaked out close wins over the Browns, Rams and Cardinals. Not an impressive stretch.

Houston’s final stretch wasn’t so impressive either. They were 10-3 after fourteen weeks. They’re 10-6. They suffered losses to Carolina, Indianapolis and Tennessee. Rookie third-string quarterback T.J. Yates is at the helm. Andre Johnson has been hobbled all year. Mario Williams has been out since week five. And, to top it all off, there was a chance that Jake Delhomme could start in this game! The Texans backpedaled full speed into this postseason.
So what gives? Andy Dalton and T.J. Yates are both rookie quarterbacks; they cancel each other out. Both teams play great defense and have key injuries at imperative spots. Both backed in. The key measurable? Past performance. The last time these two teams played (week 14) it was a total defensive war. It was probably the most thrilling defensive game all season. Cincinnati made a few huge offensive plays but settled for field goals because Houston’s red zone defense was absolutely stellar. And this was all in Cincinnati. The Texans will be even better defensively at home this Saturday and manage the utmost yardage from its running game.

The bottom line: The Bengals just aren’t ready. They’re a solid team with youth at its key positions, and quite frankly, they benefited from a relatively easy schedule. The next few years might tell a different story.

The pick: Houston 27, Cincinnati 19 (Texans -3)

Saturday, Jan 7 – 8:00 PM ET
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

This game constitutes our first obvious dichotomy. The Lions seemed like they would either back into the playoffs or miss the playoffs altogether this season when they started showing their cursed and true colors (went 2-5 after starting the season 5-0), then they ripped off three straight, but finished the season by losing to the Matt Flynn-led Packers. The Saints did the complete opposite, as they finished the season 8-0 in both team record and record against the spread.

So what’s to question here? Well, the spread is currently sitting at 10.5 and the Lions love to come back in the second half, so garbage points or even a close fourth quarter is possible. The difference: the Saints don’t want to become a victim of what they suffered last season. The 7-9 Seahawks were 10.5-point underdogs last season at home against the Saints in the first round and won. Odd are, New Orleans is cognizant of that. Oh, and it’s probably not a good idea to bet against Drew Brees in prime time. That would be a horrible way to start your playoff picks.

The pick: New Orleans 38, Detroit 24 (Saints -10.5)

Sunday, Jan 8 – 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants

Here we go... The moment we’ve all been waiting for…
Actually, it’s just the moment I’ve been waiting for. My chance to bet against the Atlanta Falcons in the playoffs! The most mediocre team in the league! Atlanta’s 2011 road slate: wins over Seattle, Detroit, Indianapolis and Carolina. They lost to Tampa Bay on the road this year, got slaughtered by Chicago and fell to Houston and New Orleans. Their quality wins (home against the Eagles in week two and at Detroit in week seven) are well, not so quality. The epicenter of the offense aimlessly vacillates between Michael Turner and Matt Ryan’s weaponry. There isn’t one thing about this team you should like unless you expect them to play an absolutely perfect four quarters.

If you’re looking at this game from the Giants perspective, then you might have some reasons to be concerned. You don’t know which Eli Manning you’re going to get, and you don’t know if the secondary will be average or putrid (because it’s obviously never good). But there’s one thing you know you’re getting: A killer defensive line that can cause as much havoc as the Super Bowl team of 2007-08 did. It’s something worth betting on as a single entity right now. It’s that good. And if you’re worried about Manning, keep in mind that the Falcons secondary is possibly the most overrated in the NFL at 20th in the league.

The pick: New York 27, Atlanta 17 (Giants -3)

Sunday, Jan 8 – 4:30 PM ET
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

The Broncos backed in as badly as the Bengals, losing three straight in ugly fashion to end the season while counting on Oakland’s loss to San Diego in the final week. The Steelers backed in too with less-than-stellar performances against the 49ers and Browns to end the season. So what gives in this one? The power and mystique of Tim Tebow.

Not really, but how can you give nine points and take a team with no Rashard Mendenhall, no Ryan Clark and a badly hobbled Ben Roethlisberger? The fabulous Denver pass rush will be too daunting and the Steelers will obviously be one-dimensional. The Broncos have looked horrific in past weeks, but this game has the makings of a close, low-scoring contest with the possibility of Tim Tebow being involved in the final minutes. If the line moves to 10 by Sunday, it would be hard not to go that route. The Steelers have had problems covering the spread against sub-par opponents all season (Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs and Browns, to name a few). Despite being a playoff team, the Broncos are one of those sub-par opponents. It’s difficult to see the Steelers actually falling to the Tebows, but it’s tough to foresee an offensive explosion from them considering the injuries they’re plagued with. We won’t have to worry about anyone backing into the divisional round, but the Steelers will certainly be limping their way there.

The pick: Pittsburgh 20, Denver 13 (Broncos +9)

Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, Drake and Mac Miller: All in Taste

2011-12-08T00:37:00.000-08:00

Two of the most enjoyable topics of conversation in the male (and some of the female) universe are sports and music. Sports are fun to talk about because any particular take on something can be either objective or subjective, yet whatever subjectivity you may have has the opportunity to be validated or disproved somewhere down the line, which inevitably creates another conversation. In music, takes are completely subjective. It’s all based on personal taste. No two people attain the same exact tastes in music, so it’s fun to talk about in both agreement and disagreement, even though every disagreement usually ends with something nonsensical like “He sucks” or “What am I listening to?? This band is garbage!” without much analysis behind it.

You’d think it would make more sense to look at sports the complete opposite, by watching objectively all the way until the end result (The Super Bowl, World Series, championship game, or even just the end of a game or a specific player’s career), but we don’t. Our opinions always get in the way, we always have to have “thoughts” on certain “sports topics,” and we almost always have to have a prediction. It’s engrained in our psyche of bar top banter by now.

All of this is an integral part of why Tim Tebow has become such a phenomenon. Everybody had an opinion Tebow before he even stepped on an NFL field. Sports are now no different than music in that they have become highly opinionated topics of conversation. We have to express our tastes in teams, players, or any compelling figure before a conversation even consummates. You can thank the NBA and this guy named LeBron James for augmenting that. Love that game.

And just yesterday, in the midst of Tebowmania and all the Tebow topics infiltrating ESPN, a big question arose:

Cam or Tebow?

Other than the subjectivity within its consumers' tastes, you’re probably wondering why music is intertwined in this column. Let’s attempt to solve the abovementioned question by implementing cross-entertainment parallels between sports figures and contemporary music figures.

The optimal comparison for Tim Tebow is Drake. I know, it sounds weird, but let me explain:

1) Both were thrown into the mainstream almost immediately without having to prove much at the highest level.

2) Both gained immense popularity at the outset of their careers based on small sample sizes.

3) Both became -- and are -- polarizing figures because of their skill sets rather than their personalities (when Drake’s first album came out, you either loved him or you hated him with no in-between, but he's never been perceived as an unlikeable guy).

4) Both are now tough to figure out (Tebow is 6-1 as a starter and beginning to make his critics believe in something they never felt they could, Drake just released a great album that is causing dissenters of his overwhelmingly mainstream hip-hop/Cash Money Records sound take an extra listen).

5) Both are exuding substance (Tebow didn’t just improve to 6-1 as a starter on Sunday, he was legitimately fun to watch and put on a brilliant second half performance highlighted by this play; Drake went a different direction with Take Care by expressing triumphant lyrics, admirably defiant lyrics, lyrics of overcoming and staying true to himself rather than just expressing fame and money although he didn’t completely remove that subject matter, lyrics pertaining to Mac Dre and the Bay Area rap scene that he has fascinatingly started to embrace, intriguing lyrics referring to himself as an “Underground King” even though he’s nothing of the sort, lyrics giving merit to his city and every city, inserted more slow jams to complement his finely textured voice, sprinkled in some great party/club songs, and ultimately compiled an album that flows in and out of all those aspects almost seamlessly).

* * *

Cam Newton was fizzling out as a compelling figure and unanimous Rookie of the Year until his gaudy performance last Sunday and the new “Tebow or Cam?” stuff. Which is interesting, because a popular artist who shares some of Newton’s most admirable traits has sort of fizzled out in recent weeks as well.

Mac Miller may not be one of the best hip-hop artists out right now, but he’s easily one of the most commendable. He began as somewhat of a gimmick artist (like Cam in Auburn’s offensive system), playing exclusively upbeat, happy-go-lucky songs about a care-free lifestyle intended for the care-free high school student or stoner. All the while, he portrayed brilliant talent for an independent artist but never made it clear if he would ever change his style if he made the mainstream jump (much like Cam as a college quarterback). However, the most important attributes both of these figures obtain are their undeniably unfazed attitudes. Although it was uncertain if their styles would translate to the next level, their intangibles should’ve never been in doubt.

The only reason those doubts existed was because both were involved in prior “gimmicks” that didn’t seem sustainable, but that doesn’t mean the purpose wasn’t there. Substance lingered. Mac Miller isn’t going to be a 19 year-old, care-free living kid his entire life, and it's clear that he's cognizant of that now, but he’s still an independent artist who’s doing everything the right way. So when his first album got bashed and criticized last month, he still thrived. The quality mixtapes he released prior to Blue Slide Park (five in total) made his immensely devoted fan base feel obligated to buy the hard copy. The first-week sales were inevitable and unparalleled for an artist who’s risen to prominence the way he has. He climbed to that spot behind catchy hooks, a unique voice, an array of fantastic music videos on YouTube and a social media savvy that’s transcending the way artists make their mark. He’s all about his fans and they love his image because he’s doing the stoner kid persona the right way. He cares about putting on good live shows and even streamed his entire album release concert at the House of Blues in Hollywood over Ustream, which were both awesome and refreshing personal experiences.

As for Cam Newton, well, you should know my affection for him already. He captivates with his diverse set of talents, exudes a charismatic aura that every day is the “Best Day Ever,” is an undisputed leader, is never satisfied, takes responsibility, has made everyone forget about the controversy that swirled around him at Auburn because he says all the right things, has stared in the face of that disparagement only to “Smile Back,” has taken complete control of the Carolina Panthers franchise, and, oh yeah, just broke the record for rushing touchdowns in a single season for a quarterback.

As with Mac Miller, Cam is just a kid. He’s a rookie doing all these things like a poised veteran. And his image is just as significant as his talents.

But couldn’t some of those attributes be used to describe Tim Tebow as well? People forget how polarizing Cam Newton really was coming out of the draft; he just managed to form everyone’s opinions and disprove the dissenters by week one of the season. Tebow says the right things, is an undisputed leader, is never satisfied, defies criticism, invigorates his entire team and has become the face of the Denver Broncos in the same way Cam has accomplished everything he has thus far with the Panthers.

* * *

So, back to the initial question: If you disregard your inherent subjectivity towards certain styles, it’s possible to like both Drake and Mac Miller in the same way it’s possible to like both Cam Newton and Tim Tebow. When I first heard of Mac Miller, I watched his “Nikes On My Feet” video and thought it was a joke. When I first heard Drake I thought he was an annoying Lil Wayne prototype. I started rooting for Cam Newton as an NFL quarterback before he was even drafted. When Tim Tebow got drafted in the first round the year before, I thought he was chosen ridiculously high but remained objective because of the same reasons I loved Newton coming in.

Now, I’m an official Mac Miller fan although I wonder which direction Blue Slide Park and his fame will take him. I love the path Drake took with Take Care, but wonder where he’ll go from here. I love what Tim Tebow showcased last Sunday, but wonder how far he can really go as an NFL quarterback. And, well, there’s Superman.

In other words, our perspectives and opinions on these kinds of figures always have the potential to change more than once. Players leave behind legacies when they retire, artists leave behind legacies long after they fade into obscurity. These things are what make these topics of conversation so endless and compelling. For now, our opinions are simply in good (or bad) taste.

Your NFL Leftovers

2011-11-30T08:36:00.000-08:00

Now that I’ve fully recovered from both my Vegas hangover and my Thanksgiving turkey hangover, here are some NFL leftovers to grub on:

THE TURKEY

The main course goes to none other than the Green Bay Packers. Just like the turkey itself, there’s no need to elaborate on how good the 11-0 Packers are. They’re consistently brilliant and Aaron Rodgers has officially separated himself as the best quarterback in the league. Their remaining schedule: at the Giants, home against the Raiders, at the Chiefs, then home against the Bears and Lions to end the season. Do you see them losing any of those games right now? Yeah, neither do I.

THE STUFFING

The stuffing is my favorite dish that nobody really talks about. For some reason, it always gets overlooked. It’s almost like it’s just there; but it gets the job done and I always feel like I enjoy it more than everyone else. That was the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. Nothing flashy, they just got the necessary win, reached a 7-4 record and retained the AFC West lead. Key injuries lingered and were apparent offensively as there was virtually no explosiveness, but the Raiders managed a 25-20 win over a very good Bears team, which was crucial. Although Caleb Hanie was the featured quarterback for Chicago and offensive coordinator Mike Martz elected to refrain from featuring Matt Forte early and often, the fact that the Raiders beat the Bears at their greatest assets (defense and special teams) is a significant accomplishment at this point in the season. The Oakland defense has been suspect all year but finds itself riding a great deal of confidence into the final stretch. If that confidence persists as the Raiders try to get completely healthy offensively, the looming three-game stretch (at Miami, at Green Bay and home against the Lions) should pass without any significant blemishes or fears of Tebow vaulting the Broncos to the division lead. And yes, I’m a victim of referring Tim Tebow without initially typing his first name.

THE MASHED POTATOES

This dish is for the mashed-up playoff picture. No different than three weeks ago, the Packers are way ahead of the pack and both North divisions are jumbled. But who’s going to fill the Wild Card slots and who in the world is going to win the AFC North? Are the Texans going to hold on to the AFC South lead with T.J. Yates or even Jake Delhomme at quarterback? Let’s sort this out right now:

The Texans have games left against Atlanta at home, at Cincinnati, home against Carolina and at Indianapolis before their week 17 match up against the Titans. Loss, loss, win, win. That culminates in a 10-5 record going into the last game. At worst, they’ll be 9-6 if something weird happens or if Superman goes off. The Titans play at Buffalo, home against the Saints, at Indy and home against the Jaguars. Win (but could go either way), loss, win, win. That’s a 9-6 record at best going into the last game, so this week’s Buffalo game is critical. The remaining schedule favors the Texans, unless Matt Hasselbeck gets benched (Jake Locker was awesome against Atlanta during my afternoon Vegas slate), or their quarterback situation completely cripples them in spite of the stout running game and defense. Chalk up the Texans here.

From the looks of it, the Ravens will either win the AFC North or tie with the Steelers, and Baltimore owns that tiebreaker. So the Steelers receive a Wild Card spot by default. But who gets the last spot? It’s down to three teams at this point: Bengals, Broncos, Jets and Titans. The Bills have faded into obscurity and the Chargers are terrible. The Bengals still have games against the Ravens and Steelers again, and although the first two contests illuminated that the Bengals are good enough to hang with the big dogs, they might not be good enough to beat them. Sandwiched between those games are the Texans, Rams and Cardinals, so Cincy is in good shape even if they ultimately lose four to the top dogs of the North this year. That week 17 game versus Baltimore at home seems winnable though, so 11-5 easily fends off the Broncos, Chris Johnson and Mark Sanchez. Wait, fending off Chris Johnson and Mark Sanchez isn’t hard to do at all… unless you’re the Bills or the Bucs.

As for the NFC, the division titles seem pretty locked up, and considering the remaining schedules, the seeding will look like this:

1. Packers
2. 49ers
3. Saints
4. Cowboys

But the Wild Card picture is a lot fuzzier. If I were to ask you which of these three teams was worse two weeks ago – the Falcons, Lions, Giants and Bears (with Cutler) – what would you have said? Wouldn’t you have said the Falcons? Now that the Giants are free-falling, the Lions are combusting and Cutler is out until the playoffs, the Falcons are the best of the bunch. Although they’re as mediocre as mediocre gets, their remaining schedule is ridiculously easy (the only tough game is at New Orleans in week 16 on Monday Night Football) and they’ll probably finish 11-5 and get dismantled by Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. The last spot is between the Lions and Bears because the Giants have the roughest remaining stretch of any contender. Despite the injury to Jay Cutler, the Bears have an ostensibly survivable road ahead of them that will be headlined by defense and special teams (Chiefs, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers, Vikings). Before the quarterback injury, Chicago was emerging as the second best team in the NFC. If Cutler is indeed healthy by postseason time, how awesome will Bears/Saints be? I’m salivating.

Did you notice that the Lions got completely disregarded at the end of that paragraph? That’s for the next dish.

THE CANNED CRANBERRY SAUCE

Everybody hates this stuff. Except for me. Everybody passes the canned stuff for the unprocessed gourmet version. Not me. I proudly admit it every year and consider it the personal satisfaction of Thanksgiving that I don’t have to share with anyone else. Which is sort of like the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection – a title and phenomenon I discovered and created myself last year. Before this season, I tagged the Detroit Lions with this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection curse, considering the inordinate number of “sleeper” picks and exorbitant amounts of hype given to the team preseason. However, by week four, I gave up on my oh-so-confident prediction, handing the curse to Philadelphia and changing its name to the “Inordinate Hype Team.”

I never should’ve done that. Here’s what I wrote in early September about the Lions and their inevitable curse:

Even if the Lions semi-meet expectations and are in the playoff mix by week 12, the Saints are still on the horizon along with San Diego and the Packers twice. Their season schedule is somewhat frontloaded and very backloaded. A bad start implodes the season immediately; a playoff-caliber season capped off with a 3-5 or 2-6 second half would be all but disheartening – inauspicious prospects for a young, encouraging team.

Throw in another tough game (Oakland), an extremely one-dimensional offense, a crumbling defense and a Bad Boy Lions identity gone wrong (Side note: I love the aura the Lions bring, no matter how bad it's backfiring right now, and I don't care what anybody else thinks about it. Just like my love for canned cranberry sauce.) and the Lions are staring directly at that 3-5 or 2-6 second-half slide. The lesson: Stick to your guns, or you'll get stomped on.

Too soon?

THE GREEN BEANS

I hate green beans. I can’t even look at them. My family doesn’t even pass them my direction because they just know. When the bowl of green beans does find its way to my side of the table and somehow ends up right in front of me, it just looks like it doesn’t belong on the table among the rest of the dishes. It looks like a lost soul that doesn’t really know what’s going on, but does a good job of blending in and taking a role. Just like Alex Smith.
THE PUMPKIN PIE

Pumpkin pie is the perfect Thanksgiving dessert. It’s completely mind numbing and utterly enjoyable. It’s so good that you just eat it without saying a word to yourself or anyone else that might be eating it too, which causes it to be overlooked at times. Drew Brees and the Saints were the perfect dessert to end the Thanksgiving weekend, and reminded us all how enjoyable the Saints are to watch in the Superdome when they’re on all cylinders. 30,000 yards in seven years??? How does that get overlooked? Brees is just too perfectly good.

THE ICE CREAM CAKE

Ice cream cake is totally superfluous, but it’s rich and decadent. Which are the same words you can use to describe the New England Patriots offense. Expect more of that considering the cake schedule they’re facing the rest of the season.

THE TURKEY SANDWICH

The best leftovers in the history of leftovers. You always save the best for last. Here’s a quick (although belated) Vegas recap:

Didn’t get carried away before Sunday; got my poker urges out early although I didn’t do so well; didn’t spend all my money at a strip club; had a nice roulette run that led to some free drinks; got drunk but not belligerent; saw Deadmau5 at XS Nightclub; won all of my NFL bets on Sunday (Packers, Lions and Ravens in a riveting three-team teaser, the Bears -4 and the second-half over in that same game); completely avoided the Eagles (although the first-half under at +110 was so tempting. My sports betting senses were on point); and made it home in one piece. Overall, it was a successful trip that I hope happens once a year for the rest of my life. There’s a chance I will fall into a gambling problem.

Week 13 picks: SEAHAWKS (+3) over Eagles; Titans (+2.5) over BILLS; BEARS (-7) over Chiefs; Raiders (+3) over DOLPHINS; STEELERS (-6.5) over Bengals; REDSKINS (+3) over Jets; TEXANS (+3) over Falcons; Broncos (+2) over VIKINGS; BUCS (-3) over Panthers; PATRIOTS (-20.5) over Colts; BROWNS (+6.5) over Ravens; 49ERS (-13.5) over Rams; Cowboys (-4.5) over CARDINALS; Packers (-7) over GIANTS; SAINTS (-9) over Lions; Chargers (-3) over JAGS

(An Attempt at) Regulating My Vegas Weekend

2011-11-17T11:27:00.000-08:00

It’s finally here – a weekend in Vegas with the majority of my closest friends for the first time since we’ve turned 21. The overall goal (for me personally) is to not run dry before Sunday. NFL betting must take precedence over any other Vegas aspect this weekend. So for my personal reference and benefit, I feel like a ten-segment set of regulations will be essential. Friends, nightlife, drinking and gambling all in the same weekend is a potential recipe for disaster for someone who used to gamble profusely, loves hanging out with his closest friends and just so happens to drink and gamble heavily with his closest friends if put in the right situation. Here’s how my Saturday would go if I decided not to lay out this forthcoming manifesto:

Wake up at noon; spend $15 on lunch; walk directly to the blackjack table and lose $100 in 5 minutes; spend money on alcohol and start drinking at around three or four o’clock because I ruin my opportunity at free drinks in the casino; spend more money on food and alcohol at dinner; go clubbing and spend the rest of my money; wake up at 2 p.m. Sunday afternoon vehemently pissed because I don’t remember what happened last night, missed nearly every game, and only have enough money to put down on a Sunday Night Football game featuring the prominent stay-away betting team in the NFL (the Eagles); come home with empty pockets because I stupidly bet on the Eagles to cover the spread as I begin my Broke College Kid initiation process. The thought of these events having a good chance of transpiring is where the ten aspects of my preparation come in. If you’re reading this and you so happen to be one of the people going with me on this trip, take notes if needed.

1. Don’t get carried away before Sunday. The array of bets is going to be enticing. As with every casino, the possibility of putting money down is present as soon as you walk in. My recurring mistake in casinos: sitting down at the blackjack table first and foremost. Not doing that is going to be a tough task, so I’ll need to get my mind off it by seeing which college football games to bet on and which UFC 139 fights portray the best odds. The wise decision will be to make only one of those bets, play random card games in the meantime, then hit the blackjack table if anything pays out. Remember, the intention of the weekend is for it to culminate in the ultimate Sunday of NFL betting at the Mirage, the Hilton, or any prominent sportsbook of the sort (as best a college kid can that’s taking half his life savings with him). As of right now (as I refer to offshore betting websites), Ohio State (-7) over Penn State, Oregon (-14.5) over USC and Brian Bowles (+180 money line) over Urijah Faber look like the best Saturday night sports bets. I’ll probably bet on Ohio State because I’m a huge Faber fan (Sactown’s Finest) and betting against Penn State would be the equivalent of betting against my newfound hatred for college football. Perfect way to start the weekend! Even though I’ll be arriving on Friday. Which leads to this next gambling rule of thumb…

2. Get your poker urges out of the way early. The majority of my friends are showing up later than me on Friday, so it will be the perfect day to get my poker fix. Poker is always my favorite, because even though it seems like a slow game, there’s a lot going on that can’t be seen and your chances of losing $500 in five minutes are a lot slimmer than it is when you’re getting crushed by a blackjack dealer. More than that, poker isn’t the kind of game you play when you’re partying with 15 friends. I never like to drink when playing this game in the first place, but it will be tempting to since it’s my first Vegas trip. Two drinks max. I don’t plan on pulling a Scotty Nguyen over the weekend.

3. Sit at the slot machines for free drinks, not at the tables. We sort of went over this already, but sitting at the tables in hopes of piling up on alcohol is always a bad idea. The only good table for that is craps, except my craps accomplice probably won’t be making this trip. Which is a shame because of my longtime dream of reenacting this at a Vegas craps table. I hate slots, but watching sports simultaneously is never terrible, and hopping around from that to other rigged games of the sort is always an option.

4. If the option for a trip to the strip club arises, turn down it down. Remember, you need money for Sunday betting. Ummm….

5. First NFL betting rule: Stay away from the Eagles. Now we’re getting to the good stuff. I know this is a way easier assumption now that Michael Vick is questionable, but the Eagles are the one team to stay away from, whether it’s in terms of betting for or against. It will be hard for me not to bet on a Sunday Night Football game in Vegas, but I’m electing to refrain even if Vick doesn’t play. Because if he doesn’t, Andy Reid will unintentionally do the right thing by giving LeSean McCoy the ball 30 times.

6. Personally emulate this video.

7. Second NFL betting rule: Take the tasty teasers, just don’t get out of hand. If you don’t know what a teaser is and don’t care, just skip this segment. If you want to know what it is, then here you go: These bets come in the form of 6-point, 6.5-point, 7-point and sometimes 10-point teasers. Basically, you can scale a point spread in your favor by those amounts, but your payout odds decrease. For example, if the Cowboys are favored by eight points against the Redskins (which they are), taking them in a 7-point teaser makes them only 1-point favorites. However, the payout goes from a $10 risk/$9.09 payout to a $10 risk/lower payout. That payout is uncertain because there’s one catch: you have to bet on at least two teams at once in a teaser. So if you threw the Packers and Cowboys in a 7-point teaser, you would be risking $10 for a $7.69 payout with the Cowboys giving just one point and the Packers giving seven (the Packers are 14-point favorites right now), and both teams have to cover to win the bet. In other words, only bet on teasers when scaling back the spread is too much to pass up and three teams offer enticement, but never more than three. Four or more just gets you into trouble.

There are five morning games that provide permutations for some tempting 7-point teasers. Here’s what the spreads look like once the teaser is implemented (home team in caps): RAVENS (Pick) over Bengals; Raiders (+6) over VIKINGS; LIONS (pick) over Panthers; PACKERS (-7) over Bucs; Cowboys (-1) over REDSKINS.

The verdict: I can’t bet on the Raiders because it’s already too emotionally grueling and I hate betting on Tony Romo. The other three games look like locks, no? The other lock: BEARS (-3.5) over the Chargers in the afternoon. I wish I could wire transfer that money directly from my ING account RIGHT NOW.

8. Third NFL betting rule: Be cognizant of last week’s “Swing Games.” Which is exactly why taking the Bears is a no-brainer. Two teams that swung in completely opposite directions last week are playing against one another this Sunday. Additionally, the Bills look like a lock against the Dolphins but they just can’t be trusted right now. The Raiders might be gaining momentum but the Vikings match-up is too dicey and Carson Palmer will have to throw more than 20 times once Minnesota loads the box. My unlimited passion for Cam Newton can’t even supersede how bad the Panthers defense is. Josh Freeman is letting me down and the Bucs have no chance of ruining my teaser unless Aaron Rodgers doesn’t show up. And, as always, stay away from the Eagles.
9. It’s your best friend’s 21st birthday, not yours. You already endured your 21st birthday drunken stupor in San Francisco this summer. Remember that. Ummmmm……

10. Don’t blow all your money. You will officially be a broke college kid like everyone else after this trip if you do. Ummmmmmmm……….

Complete list of Week 11 NFL picks, just for fun: Jets (-6.5) over BRONCOS; Bills (+2) over DOLPHINS; RAVENS (-7) over Bengals; Jaguars (PK) over BROWNS; Raiders (-1) over VIKINGS; LIONS (-7) over Panthers; PACKERS (-14) over Bucs; REDSKINS (+7.5) over Cowboys; Cardinals (+9.5) over 49ERS; Seahawks (+2) over RAMS; FALCONS (-6) over Titans; BEARS (-3.5) over Chargers; GIANTS (-5) over Eagles; PATRIOTS (-15) over Chiefs

NFL Week 10: Swing Games

2011-11-10T12:13:00.000-08:00

What have we learned after 9 weeks of the NFL season? Well, we’ve learned that the Green Bay Packers are in a class of their own and the rest of the league will be fighting for the remaining playoff spots. However, this doesn’t mean that those remaining slots aren’t imperative. A team’s road to the Packers could change the dynamic of the season. The North divisions in both conferences are comprised of three playoff contenders, and divisions such as the NFC South, AFC West, and AFC East are up for grabs. Week 10 consists of a handful of games that should start to smooth things out a little bit, so let’s preview this weekend’s significant swing games.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (Tonight at 8:20 PM EST)

Both of these teams have been horrifically sloppy as of late. Raiders quarterbacks have combined for nine interceptions in the last two games, and Philip Rivers has thrown 14 interceptions on the season – a ghastly number for an elite NFL quarterback. Both of these teams have secondary issues, injury issues, and are tops in the league in total turnovers (Oakland is third in the AFC with 16, San Diego tied for most in the NFL with 19). The Raiders have lost two games in a row (home against the Chiefs and Broncos), and the Chargers have lost three in a row (at the Jets, at the Chiefs, home against the Packers). Both teams are free-falling yet find themselves tied at the top of the AFC West. In other words, this division is really bad.

But if the Chargers can snap their losing streak and the Raiders suffer a third straight division loss, the divisional picture becomes very clear. Carson Palmer made some nice throws last week and got his receivers involved, but he still threw three interceptions and the defense was absolutely dreadful. Willis McGahee and Tim Tebow accounted for 405 yards alone in that game. If the Broncos can manage that much yardage out of two players, imagine what the San Diego offense will be able to do tonight with its cast of offensive weapons. There’s no Darren McFadden to keep the Chargers off the field and control the game. The Raiders will need an all-out flawless performance tonight to win, because a 4-5 record with remaining games against the Bears, Lions, Packers and Chargers again creates a grim second half picture. Which is too bad, because there's no two things I enjoy more in the NFL than watching the Raiders win and Philip Rivers pout like a first-grader on the sidelines.

The pick: CHARGERS (-7) over Raiders

Buffalo Bills at Dallas Cowboys

Although the New York Giants appear to have pulled away as the most reliable team in the NFC East, the Cowboys actually have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs if you look at their remaining schedule. After this week’s game versus Buffalo, they go to Washington, have Miami at home and then go to Arizona. If the Cowboys manage to go 4-0 in the next four games, they’ll be sitting at 8-4 with two games left against the Giants. So this game against the Bills is vastly significant. The Bills got manhandled by the Jets last week, which is either a product of the Jets coming into their own or the Bills fizzling out, and that’s something Buffalo can’t afford. The AFC East is in a deadlocked three-way tie with New England sliding. The Jets and Patriots happen to play each other on Sunday night, so achieving a 6-3 record with contests left against each of those teams is enormous for the Bills.

DeMarco Murray proved he wasn’t a one-hit wonder last week with his 139-yard performance, so Dallas has some legitimate balance in its offense right now. As always, the question marks are in its secondary (if you're still turning a blind eye to Tony Romo). If Ryan Fitzpatrick can recover from his funk (he hasn’t thrown more than two touchdown passes in a game since week two, has thrown for over 200 yards only twice in the last five games, and has thrown six interceptions in the last four games), then the Bills have a shot to win or at least make a Detroit-esque second half comeback. Besides the whole Megatron part.

The pick: Bills (+5.5) over COWBOYS

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has been able to beat teams how it sees fit, using Michael Turner more prevalently against teams that struggle against the run and stretching the field against teams with secondary deficiencies. I guess we can expect a lot of Michael Turner this Sunday against the Saints. New Orleans is 17th against the run statistically this season, and appears even worse than that in game action. As if the defense isn’t sloppy enough, Drew Brees and the offense have been even more so. Despite their win against Tampa Bay last week, the Saints had a tough time finishing drives and went three for six in the red zone. The Bucs have been everything but good this season despite their record, and the Rams team that beat the Saints the week prior isn’t exactly a powerhouse. If the Saints don’t turn things around this week in a harsh environment on the road, they’ll find themselves at 6-4 and suddenly the Falcons will be in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. This game alone has the potential to change the dynamic of the entire division for the rest of the season.

The pick: FALCONS (PK) over Saints

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Along with the Bills, the Bengals have been the surprise of the AFC this year, and they’re legitimately good. The defense is ranked second against the run and tenth against the pass. It’s not a stretch to say that the only defenses playing better right now are in Baltimore and San Francisco. However, the Steelers just came off a loss to the Ravens and will be prepping James Harrison and company for a feeding frenzy after rookie quarterback Andy Dalton. Dalton would be the undisputed Rookie of the Year if Cam Newton wasn’t around, but the schedule has been very fortunate thus far for the Bengals. The Bengals may be legitimately good, but they’re not legitimately great. A 7-2 record and control of the AFC North? That would induce hours upon hours of Bengals talk on ESPN next week.

The pick: Steelers (-3) over BENGALS

Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks

Trust me, this is a swing game. Just hear me out:

Century Link field is an insane atmosphere and wacky things always happen there. Joe Flacco can easily digress from last week’s brilliant crunch-time performance. The Ravens just beat the Steelers for the second time in a row and will be coming down from that high. Remember when they lost to the Jaguars on Monday Night Football three weeks ago and Flacco looked utterly confused, then fell behind by a large margin to the Cardinals a week later? This is still that same team with those same players. Don’t get set to anoint the Ravens just yet. The AFC North isn’t anywhere near clinched.

The pick: SEAHAWKS (+7) over Ravens

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
This is unequivocally the most prominent swing game of the week. It may not seem like it because the 49ers clinched the NFC West three weeks ago and the Giants are sitting pretty at the top of the NFC East, but these teams are fighting for the number two seed in the conference. These teams are on a fantastic roll, playing to their strengths better than any team in the league besides the Packers. Eli Manning has been phenomenal and so has the San Francisco defense. The only uncertainties in this game would be the New York run defense and the fact that the San Francisco secondary hasn’t really been tested outside of Calvin Johnson. With that in mind, neither team should waver or shy away from what it does best in this game. Mark this one down as the Non-Rivalry Game of the Week (this can't be considered a rivalry unless you're still living in the 80s and 90s or you still think about this game from time to time).

The pick: Giants (+3.5) over 49ERS

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Yes! Our weekly dose of Megatron is back!

On another note: From here on out, the Lions and Bears will be fighting for an NFC Wild Card spot, and it starts this week. Whether you’re a believer or not, the Bears have been very good this year and Matt Forte is a complete monster. Moreover, teams have been lethargic in games following bye weeks this season (12-12 record), especially when those games have been on the road (3-8). The Lions obtain considerable strengths but not many dimensions with running back Jahvid Best still out. Calvin Johnson won’t be able to swing this one on his own. At 5-3 and 6-2, the Lions and Bears will be scrounging for playoff positioning as the Packers watch from afar. With the Packers playing the Vikings on Monday night, week 10 will personify all of that.

The pick: BEARS (-3) over Lions

New England Patriots at New York Jets

While the Patriots are sliding and the secondary continues to collapse, the Jets seem to be coming together nicely. Since losing three straight road games to Oakland, Baltimore and the Patriots, Gang Green has won three straight games in convincing fashion. In the one close contest of the three against San Diego, Shonn Greene ran the ball for 112 yards and the patented smash-mouth attack came to fruition for the first time this season. That game was the turning point, and the Jets are themselves again. The swagger is apparent, Mark Sanchez has been reliable, Plaxico Burress has been brilliant and the defense is forcing turnovers.

On the other hand, the Patriots have been nothing of the sort. When these teams last faced in week five, New England gave the Jets some of their own medicine and Benjarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 136 yards. Since then, no Patriots runner has rushed for more than 60, and the passing offense has been struggling as well. Dallas blanketed the underneath routes the Patriots are so accustomed to targeting in week six. They allowed the “deep threats” to run free and the Patriots had a rough time gaining any offensive rhythm. Since then, Tom Brady has struggled to consistently play at his elite level. Wes Welker has been shut down, and when that happens, the tandem tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) are all Brady has to work with down the field. Absolutely no deep threat is viable enough to give Brady breathing room when Welker gets blanketed, and it’s become an evident quandary for the New England offense – which accounts for a vast majority of the team’s success. What’s more, the Jets have learned how to beat the Patriots and deter their offensive scheme better than any team over the years.

So honestly, can a Sunday night rivalry in week 10 get any better? One team has slid halfway down an avalanche; the other has brushed off the snow and managed to pull itself halfway back up the mountain. Both teams know what to expect from one another. So can the big brother of the AFC East regain command in a deadlocked division? Do the Jets have their full-fledged swagger back? Will they do this again if they win because they realize that a victory probably determines the division?
Or maybe Tom Brady just walks into New Meadowlands and starts firing bullets like nothing ever happened. The rule is to never bet against Brady after a loss, but the Patriots have already lost two straight. There’s a reason the spread in this one is basically a pick. The ultimate swing games never give points to anyone.

The pick: JETS (-1) over Patriots

It's Official

2011-10-27T11:02:00.000-07:00

It’s official: I have an extra week to dwell over the excruciating uncertainty of the Carson Palmer reclamation project, even though I was pessimistic as ever when the trade had initially consummated. Top that off with Darren McFadden and Sebastian Janikowski’s injuries, and I’m a nervous wreck as a football fan. Good thing other aspects of sports have become official enough to marvel over.
It’s official: Calvin Johnson is the best wide receiver in the NFL. Step aside, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, you’ve been replaced by the most freakish talent at a skill position since Randy Moss. His dominance as a goal line target is utterly unstoppable, his hands are impeccable, his speed is exceptional and his route running is egregiously overlooked. He can run slant routes with the best of them and is deadly after the catch. He gets doubled and sometimes even triple-covered every game, but it doesn’t seem to matter at all. He can beat cornerbacks off the line and beat them deep. There’s nothing Calvin Johnson can’t do as a receiver. Remember when he was on pace to score 24 touchdowns after the first four weeks? He’s still on that pace through seven games. I can watch this every day for the remainder of my existence and say I lived a bountiful life. Megatron will be fighting with Aaron Rodgers for MVP honors this season, and he might just win it.

It’s official: Matt Forte is an elite NFL running back. It does help that he’s become somewhat like the reincarnation of Marshall Faulk under Mike Martz’ offense, but Forte is completely taking advantage of it. Jay Cutler isn’t responsible for even half of the offense because Forte has been so good as both a runner and a pass-catcher. He’s more than just the identity of the offense – he’s the overpowering strength of the whole team. He’s averaging over five yards per carry and 11 yards per catch. Without Matt Forte, the Bears aren’t even close to playoff-caliber.

It’s official: Tim Tebow is who we should think he is. Tim Tebow has been talked about so much that it should be no surprise as to what he’s comprised of as an NFL football player. He’s an overall great athlete with unusual throwing mechanics, will never attain the abilities to throw over 250 yards per game on a constant basis, but is a phenomenal leader and does what he can to lead his team to a victory. So we can stop talking about him now, even though that’s never going to happen. Love or hate Tim Tebow, we all know what his make-up is by now. He gives the Broncos the best chance to win every game, so who cares what it looks like? With Tebow, the value is in the result, not the process.

It’s official: Cam Newton is for real. I know I may have mentioned him once or twice already this year, but I don’t think I’ll stop mentioning him all season. The inevitable NFL Rookie of the Year is zipping the ball down the field and using his legs with uncanny poise. He’s one of the five most exciting players in the NFL right now (along with Megatron, Mike Vick, Run DMC and Adrian Peterson), and he’s turned the Panthers into the friskiest team in the NFL. A rookie quarterback hasn’t single-handedly formed a team’s identity with such immediacy since Peyton Manning. That’s something. The more he performs his trademark touchdown celebration, the more I begin to think he really is Superman.

It’s official: The San Francisco 49ers are a damn good football team. Their last victory came in a defensive battle against the Lions two weeks ago (The Lions have slid since then, but are still a good team nonetheless), and they now find themselves at 5-1 after their bye week. They’re basically locked in at the top of the NFC West for the rest of the season, and a home playoff game against the Lions is virtually inevitable (and is a tasty prospect). Jim Harbaugh has done an outstanding job in bringing in a new culture and disposition to a team with nearly the same exact players as last season. Moreover, the Niners follow the Championship Philosophy more extensively than any other team in the NFL. They’re currently sixth in total rushing yards and second in rushing yards allowed. Patrick Willis and Frank Gore are the anchors and undisputed leaders. For the first time in nearly a decade, the 49ers exude an admirable sense of direction.

It’s official: Hue Jackson is on the verge of having everything blow up in his face. Since Al Davis’ death, Hue’s mission has been to carry out Davis’ legacy. He never said he wanted to take Davis’ position and hasn’t been doing that, but he obviously wanted the culture of the franchise to remain intact. He’s done an amazing job of that and there’s no question that he’s a brilliant offensive mind. However, he does embrace the media a little too much, even for someone who’s a visible entity of the Oakland Raiders.
Once he dubbed the Carson Palmer deal “the greatest trade in the NFL,” things started to crumble a little bit. His bravado and candidness have been admirable since he was anointed the head coaching position, but now that he’s put all his stock into a season by pulling a guy out of retirement for a high price while undercutting Jason Campbell in the process, he’s on the verge of looking foolish. Jason Whitlock is already calling him “Hue-bris” Jackson, which is amusing if you know what “hubris” means. But it’s still too early for that type of classification. It hasn’t happened yet, but if the Raiders come off the bye with a healthy McFadden, yet Palmer picks up where he left off, Oakland could potentially lose three straight division games. If that happens, the exciting expectations this team laid the groundwork for in the first six games will vanish. Jackson says that when the Raiders lose it’s never the fault of the players; he always insists that the blame is on him. If the Raiders indeed free-fall the rest of the season, he’ll get his wish.

It’s official: The Chargers are still the Chargers. As long as Norv Turner is their head coach, they’ll continue to commit horrible turnovers at the absolute worst possible times and beat themselves in the fourth quarter. And I’ll continue to love watching Philip Rivers argue with Turner on the sidelines.

It’s official: We’ll forget the Steelers were ever a mess if they win the next two games. If they beat the Patriots and Ravens consecutively and reach a 7-2 record, will anybody remember how terrible they looked after the first four weeks? Not at all.

It’s official: Andrew Luck will either be a Dolphin or a Colt next season. The Rams have already invested in a franchise quarterback, Tim Tebow is going to get Denver enough wins to stay out of the bottom three, and Christian Ponder seemed competent in his first career start for the Vikings last week. I’m going with the Dolphins because of a daunting stretch to end the season. Has Tony Sparano been fired yet?

It’s official: Sports are really weird right now. Classic Terrell Owens montages and clips of Theo Epstein giving speeches like a newly appointed president? I guess it all came at a respectable time. Happy early Halloween, everybody! At least we have a mesmerizing World Series to keep us on track.

A Day in Sports We'd Rather Forget, Plus a Perplexing Trade

2011-10-18T11:35:00.000-07:00

In sports, there are usually things you need to remember. Every once in a while, there are moments you’d rather forget. A few of those moments (both major and minor) manifested on Sunday.

Following the compelling culmination in Detroit (featuring an astounding defensive war, a down-to-the wire finish and an entertaining feud between 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh and Lions head coach Jim Schwartz), the day slowly began to unravel.

It started with the devastating Jason Campbell injury. Campbell threw only nine passes before breaking his collarbone in Sunday’s Al Davis memorial game in Oakland, and now the Raiders are in the midst of mentally preparing themselves for an entire season without their starting quarterback. Campbell is not an All-World quarterback by any means, but as head coach Hue Jackson alluded to in the post-game press conference, his leadership will be greatly missed and the connections he’s built with multiple receivers on the squad cannot be understated. News did come out last night that Campbell is hopeful for a return in six weeks, although initial reports revealed he would be out for the entire season. This seems unlikely, bearing in mind that the injured clavicle is on his right (throwing) side, but none of that seems to matter considering the news that broke this morning.

Carson Palmer has reportedly been dealt to the Raiders for a first-round pick in 2012 and a conditional first-round pick in 2013. Obviously, this is a bold move and an ultimately huge price for a 31 year-old quarterback who has been semi-retired this season. Moreover, he hasn’t been good since 2006, and hasn’t shown signs of decent quarterback play since 2009. Two first-round picks is an insane price for this type of player.

Hue Jackson does attain a long relationship with Palmer, serving as his wide receivers coach in Cincinnati and aided in recruiting Palmer to USC. Jackson has been saying all year that he doesn’t plan to develop for the future with this Raiders team; he wants to win now. So the trade makes sense… if Palmer turns out to be any good. He’s a definite upgrade over second-string quarterback Kyle Boller, but Oakland is now banking on him to be the new franchise quarterback considering the price paid. Unless Palmer stinks up the Coliseum in the half-season he’ll serve this year, Jason Campbell is inevitably out and his expired contract won’t be picked up. Palmer was acquired for too many assets to just be let go or for Campbell to be re-signed next season. Campbell has been implicitly undercut and it’s completely unfair.

Jackson is going to be a victim of his impatience if Palmer doesn’t work out, and the odds say this won’t work out. The old-fashioned Oakland Raiders reclamation project is a factor here, and the locker room is probably a little relieved now that there will be some experience under center, but it’s uncertain if it will even come close to panning out. The optimism: Palmer will be an experienced supplement to a good, young team, will have the best running back he’s ever had (McFadden) behind him, the fastest receivers he’s ever had and probably the best system he's ever experienced. The pessimism: one of my best friends (and the only Bengals fan I know) sarcastically wished me luck after the trade broke headlines. Not a good sign.

From Campbell’s injury on out, Sunday’s NFL afternoon games just got plain weird. The New England Patriots dished out an exceedingly atypical performance, headlined by four turnovers and Tom Brady’s two interceptions. The Cowboys didn’t play particularly well either and struggled to adequately capitalize on turnovers. The end result was a 20-16 Patriots win that didn’t seem completely right.

To illuminate how weird of a performance it was for New England: The Patriots failed to score 30 points or more for the first time in 13 straight games; only threw for 6.6 yards per pass; lost the turnover and time of possession battles although it felt like they were trying to solidify a rushing attack all game and never threw deep; scored with 7:34 remaining in the third quarter and didn’t score again until 22 seconds left in the game. It was a game both the Patriots and Cowboys would like to forget, considering Dallas had every chance in the world to win it. It just so happened that that last New England score with 22 seconds left was the conclusion to a masterful final drive by Tom Brady. And, in the end, that’s all they really needed.

It got weird again in Tampa Bay, when it seemed as though one of two things became apparent: Either the Buccaneers know how to make opponents play bad when they come to Tampa, or New Orleans was just in flux once head coach Sean Payton went down with an injury on the sidelines. His torn meniscus and broken tibia weren’t enough to keep him off the sidelines for at least a while, but he eventually left the game. Drew Brees and Payton have an untouchable quarterback-coach connection that very few teams in the NFL attain. Was the loss of that duo the reason Brees threw three interceptions? Was it the reason he tarnished a possible fourth-quarter win with an interception in the endzone, which did the reverse and sealed a win for the Bucs? Or are the Bucs just a better team than we think despite their embarrassing shellacking to the 49ers in week five? Whatever the answer may be, it was a weird game. It would’ve capped off the weird day if it wasn’t for the prime time match-up between the Vikings and Bears, which I slept through. Who schedules these night games again?

But the day wouldn’t be one we would like to forget if it was just plain weird and nothing else. Although we would like to forget Sunday’s sporting events for many reasons, the tragic events that happened at Las Vegas Motor Speedway will never be forgotten. What transpired was one of the most horrific crashes in the history of IndyCar racing, and Dan Wheldon was sadly the primary victim of the 15-car incident. Wheldon died in the wreck due to significant head injuries that he was unable to recover from. The entire racing world seemed to stop once the news broke, and virtually every driver was saddened and humbled by the moment. IndyCar ended the race and ensued a five-lap salute in his honor.

The biggest fear in racing happened on Sunday, and it happened in a ghastly manner. Whether IndyCar will continue to run on ovals is up in the air, but as five-time Sprint Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson alluded to yesterday, there’s just no need to. Racing in general is already in a tough spot, and recognizing the perils of such an exhilarating sport is another step towards getting out of that rut. As Sunday’s events depicted, racing’s tragedies are always right around the corner.

Sometimes it’s best not to forget things.

The New Frontier of the UFC: The Flyweight Division

2011-10-17T10:45:00.000-07:00

By Aaron Sudario
Special Contributor to The Fan Experience

When you think about the UFC, certain names come to mind such as Jon Jones, Georges St. Pierre and Brock Lesnar. All of these MMA superstars have one thing in common: they fight at the higher weight classes. All the heavier weight classes have received more exposure because they have been around for many years. For a while the only big fights that were available to the MMA audience ranged from 155 pounds to 265 pounds. This obviously left many of the lighter weight classes out of the spotlight for a long time.

Nevertheless, Dana White gave some shocking news last year, stating that the UFC was swallowing its sister promotion, the WEC (World Extreme Cage Fighting), and accumulating its Featherweight (145-pound) and Bantamweight (135-pound) rosters. Since the exodus of the lighter-weight fighters from the WEC, the presence of those fighters have been very much known. Many superstars emerged from the Bantamweight and Featherweight classes such as Urijah Faber, Dominick Cruz, Jose Aldo and Mark Hominick. These and many other fighters in these weight classes have shown how much speed and stamina these guys have, which makes for very exciting and fast-paced fights.

If the exciting fights were not enough exposure, how about a reality TV series to set things off too? Season 14 of The Ultimate Fighter features featherweights and bantamweights for the first time in the show's history, and Dana White himself agrees that it's one of its most exiting seasons to date. Now that the little guys are getting the exposure and have established weight classes, what’s next? Well, Dana White had the answer a couple weeks ago, shocking the world once again by saying that 125-pound Flyweights will be added to the organization in 2012. This is very exciting news because there are many flyweight fighters that are eager to jump into the octagon, such as Yasuhiro Urushitani (19 - 4 – 6), who is currently number one in the flyweight division and fights in Shooto, a promotion in Japan. Not only will we see some new faces, but some Bantamweights will be going south in weight to compete in the flyweight division as well. John Dodson, Joseph Benavidez, and Demetrious Johnson are some fighters expected to make the drop to 125 pounds, showing there will be some top talent in the division. There hasn’t been any news on how the new weight class is going to crown a champion, but I’m sure Dana White has something up his sleeve. I'm very excited to see how the Flyweight Division pans out and I’m certain there will be fireworks when they hit the octagon!

Aaron is a student at CSU Sacramento and MMA enthusiast who plans to start his own MMA blog. Check out his Twitter page for MMA banter and random thoughts from a college student.

A Day in Oakland Raiders History: The Tribute Game

2011-10-11T10:41:00.000-07:00

My reaction to the news of Al Davis’ death on Saturday wasn’t the reaction I always expected it to be. As an Oakland Raiders fan born in the 1990s, not much of what I saw from Davis was what you would call “admirable.” There have been some memorable teams and one Super Bowl appearance, but virtually everything about the Raiders in the last decade has been awful and embarrassing. Al Davis wasn’t exactly a popular figure within the Raider Nation amid the humiliation. Although his rich history with the franchise and the NFL was known, the fact that he was the one making each and every decision – everything from drafting players, signing players, assigning and firing head coaches, and doing it all from an ominously powerful position – during these putrid times made it easy to find someone to blame. There was actually a point in time when Raiders fans (sometimes jokingly and sometimes in moments of vehemence) were anticipating the man’s death as much as the release of JaMarcus Russell.

When I saw the news of Al Davis’ death, I actually couldn’t believe it. How could this man of ominous power die? He was such an inherent entity of the Raiders that it went unnoticed until his death that he was the Raiders. For a fan my age that has only read about and watched highlights and DVDs on Raiders history, it took a while for it to sink in. And it wasn’t until the day after his death that I realized it would sink in for the Oakland Raiders as well.

It started during the waning moments of the first half of Sunday's game. The Raiders were doing absolutely nothing offensively until then, gaining a total of 11 yards on eight possessions. Jason Campbell threw one head-scratching interception, which directly led to a Houston touchdown on the very next play. Things were looking grim, and momentum seemed to be solidified as it always does in these situations for the Raiders. Sebastian Janikowski (an Al Davis first-rounder) was the only player keeping Oakland in striking distance with his two field goals of more than 50 yards, and Shane Lechler (another Al Davis pick) was giving the defense nice field position to work with. The field position battle was the only thing the Raiders could count on. Then, with 1:18 remaining in the half, Campbell zipped a pass on second and two to Darrius Heyward-Bey, who was sitting at the end of his curl route on the left side of the field. DHB caught the pass, turned to his left while Jason Allen dove at his ankles, muscled his way out of Allen’s grasp and burst down the sideline for a 34-yard touchdown.
Heyward-Bey was fired up all game, vehemently beating his hands over his helmet and trash-talking opposing defenders multiple times throughout the first half. He ran crisp routes, caught the ball seven of the twelve times he was targeted (“Heyward-Bey is catching the ball!” was a popular text on Sunday), and he was a legitimate game-changer. Al Davis’ decision to take him with the seventh overall pick in the 2009 draft was one of the most criticized of his Oakland tenure. Heyward-Bey set out to prove on Sunday that Davis was right in drafting him with that pick.

The defense played stellar from that point on, giving up nothing close to what was allowed on the first Texans drive or the long touchdown pass subsequent Campbell’s interception. Arian Foster was having a tough time gaining significant yardage on the ground, and the Texans ultimately scored only six points in the entire second half. The Raiders executed a dazzlingly successful fake punt at the beginning of the fourth quarter, which aided in padding the Oakland lead at 25-17. However, drama ensued with less than three minutes left in the game, and the emotional roller coaster began.

Houston had no timeouts, and instead of electing to run the ball on second-and-nine with 2:56 remaining, the Raiders went pass as Jason Campbell dropped back and slung a deep ball down the right side of the field intended for Denarius Moore. The ball hit the turf incomplete and stopped the clock. Head coach Hue Jackson looked furious after the play, entailing that Campbell chose to audible out of a run play and attempt to drive a dagger into the Texans. It didn’t work out, but most of all, it gave the Texans 1:50 to work with down only five, 25-20.

A 26-yard pass to Kevin Walter got Houston's drive going, and a roughing-the-passer call (which was impossible for defensive captain Richard Seymour to avoid), catapulted the Texans to Oakland’s 26-yard line. Matt Schaub fumbled the snap on the next play, and two plays later Houston faced third and 23. They would need a near miracle to convert, but they did. And every Raiders fan was thinking: “Oh, no. Here we go again.”

Schaub’s pass hung in the air for what felt like an eternity, and fell into the arms of tight end Joel Dreessen. The Texans were now at the 5-yard line with seven seconds left after the ensuing spike, and tension was at an all-time high. If you’ve ever been in a bad car accident when it was totally your fault, then you know what it feels like when Raiders fans get epically let down. It’s happened constantly in the last eight years, and usually always happens due to secondary breakdowns. In years past, the defense would inevitably give up a touchdown on the last play. The momentum would just be too much in favor of the opposition. Bad Raiders teams deflate at horrific times.

But when the pocket broke down on the Texans’ final play and Matt Schaub rolled to his left, something different happened this time. Safety Tyvon Branch, who was firmly settled in the endzone on an island, bolted towards Schaub when it appeared as though the Texans quarterback had ample room to run the ball in for the score. When Branch cut that option off, it forced Schaub to throw an errant lob into the hands of Raiders’ defensive back Michael Huff (another Al Davis first-rounder), who corralled the ball for the game-sealing interception. The Raiders won. The Raiders won the kind of game they never seem to win.
The players celebrated in sheer jubilation. Hue Jackson fell to a knee on the field as tears fell from his eyes. Al Davis’ son Mark wept as he looked down from the luxury box. Raiders fans everywhere rejoiced. The players played their hearts out all game for Al Davis and Oakland Raider lore, and it manifested in this game’s culmination. It wasn't anywhere near perfect, but it was a win.

The Raiders franchise is comprised of an endless history and a collection of illustrious games, such as the infamous “Heidi” game, the “Sea of Hands” game, “Ghost to the Post,” “The Holy Roller,” countless rivalry games within the AFC West, memorable rivalry games against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the seventies, one AFL title and three Super Bowl titles. History lies even in games in which the Raiders got the short end of the stick, such as “The Immaculate Reception” and the “Tuck Rule” game.

Al Davis was the driving force behind every piece of Oakland Raiders history, something no one else can match in terms of impact on a sports franchise. He's the one who anointed John Madden as head coach in 1969, the youngest in the league at the age of 32. He's the one who hired Art Shell in 1990, the first African American head coach in NFL history. He's the one who constructed the Raider Way and Raider Image in the 60s and 70s, constructing teams of misfits from a plethora of backgrounds who ultimately just loved the game of football and loved to win. He's the one who strove to build a unique organization with historical context similar to the New York Yankees. He's the one who constituted the eventually traditional Raiders approach: "Whether we score or not, we are not playing for 10 yards; we're playing for the ballgame." He died carrying those philosophies; he died as the owner of the Oakland Raiders. He's the one who set the foundation and built nearly every single piece of one of the most historic franchises in the history of sports.

Sunday’s game found a place in that history as “The Tribute Game.” It will now be included in the aforementioned class of memorable Raiders games, but will not be the last game of the Al Davis Era. This is still his team – a team built in his image – and the Raiders are totally cognizant of it.

The “Badasses” of the seventies were the first renowned Oakland Raiders squad – the first to notoriously carry the aura of the Silver & Black. The 2011 Raiders are not comparable to the Badasses, but their attributes, style they impose, and character of their head coach all resemble a true Raiders team. The Raiders haven’t portrayed the emotion, resilience, and ability to close out a game the way they did on Sunday in a long time.

Once the players headed back to the locker room, more poignant moments transpired. Safety Mike Mitchell depicted his awareness of a true Raider identity when he ran down the tunnel, overwhelmed with emotion as he shouted, “AHHHHH!!!! JUST WIN BABY!!!” Hue Jackson gave a captivating speech to his team in the locker room, one that every Raiders fan would admit to getting choked up to every time he or she sees it. The players believe in their coach, team, franchise and organization. They also believe that someone is now watching over them, giving them some help along the way.

But most of all, the Raiders have now gained belief in the Raider Way. It's a culture and approach that can only be described in three simple, yet resonating words:

Just win, baby.

The Good, Great and Ugly from the NFL's First Quarter (Part 2)

2011-10-07T15:00:00.000-07:00

This is Part 2 of the NFL's Good, Great and Ugly First Quarter. If you haven't read Part 1, click here.

We had to get ugly at some point. We’ll hold off on the Eagles for a bit and get to two of the most perplexing offensive line situations in the NFL.

The New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers were both in the AFC Championship game last year, but the perils their offensive fronts have created this season suggest that the chances of them returning to that game are slim. The Steelers had offensive line issues last year, but fortuitous scheduling allowed them to cover up those woes in the second half. Couple that with the fortune of not having to face the Patriots in the postseason (a horrible match-up for the Steelers last year), and the Steelers got away with a lot in 2010. Pittsburgh will have the luxury of enjoying those same types of benefits this season, considering the six remaining games on the schedule following its bye week, but the Steelers have still looked ugly nonetheless. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger got knocked around last Sunday against a Houston defense that isn’t exactly a group of marauders. He was hit a total of eight times and sacked five times. Rashard Mendenhall rushed for only 25 yards before leaving the game with an injury. Beyond that, the defense gave up 180 yards rushing to the Texans and rank 22nd in total rushing defense. Regardless of championship pedigree, the Steelers are a mess right now.

As for the Jets, their offensive line issues go way beyond the Nick Mangold injury cop-out. Mark Sanchez was hit nine times in last Monday night’s game against the Ravens and was sacked twice. Sanchez coughed up the ball three times, two of which resulted in direct touchdowns by the Ravens defense along with an interception return to the house. Baltimore played awfully and they still rolled the Jets, 34-17. The Jets only scored three points offensively. The other 14 came from the defense and special teams. Furthermore, this came a week after the Raiders ran amok on their defense. The passing game looked solid in that affair, but it seems as though the Oakland secondary had something to do with that, because the Jets’ passing scheme is horribly painful to watch. The Jets have some real issues that go beyond awaiting the return of an All-Pro center and backing up another Super Bowl prediction.

If you want ugly, look no farther than the teams at the bottom of the NFC East. After trampling the poor Rams, the Eagles lost the weirdest game of the season to the Falcons on Sunday night in week two, then lost to the Giants in week three and fell apart against the 49ers last Sunday. Michael Vick is already in sporadically injured mode, and Andy Reid’s play calling has been disturbing (which isn’t out of the ordinary, but still). LeSean McCoy has proven that he is one of the best offensive talents in the NFL, yet he carried the ball a mere nine times against the 49ers for 18 yards. No wonder the Eagles struggled so much in opposing territory. The Eagles attempted five field goals (and made only three), and finished the game two-for-seven in the red zone. A 23-3 lead against any NFC West team should be a lock for a team as talented as the Eagles, but they let the gritty Niners stick around and take the game that was handed to them. To make things worse, there are only two teams in the NFL worse at stopping the run than the Eagles.

Say goodbye to the “Dream Team,” because the hype affected the Eagles so much that they can’t stop the run, run the ball when they need to, protect Michael Vick or tell Vick when to cool down when he’s running around aimlessly, or run an offense comprised of anything consistent besides the “home run play.” Philadelphia is the ugliest team in the NFL after one quarter of the season. No team with this much talent should be 1-3. Because of this, they’re changing the dynamic of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection curse. It can’t be the Lions because they’re 4-0. They’ve already dodged their bullet. It doesn’t seem like it should be the Eagles because they’re not a sleeper team, but they unquestionably carried more hype than any other team in the NFL before the season and it became their curse. The expectations were enormously high; they were never going to reach them by any stretch. The NFL hype curse that has been cast over the league since 2005 has proven to have nothing to do with a “sleeper.” The proven constant is the inordinately high expectations, which the Lions were not burdened with. The yearly phenomenon is now known as the “Inordinate Expectations Curse.” Thanks to the Eagles for clearing that up for us. At least they're not as ugly as this next player…

Tony Romo finds ways to keep fans on their toes. He does as best as he can to give the impression that his potential as a Super Bowl winning quarterback is right around the corner. But it’s not. It’s not hard to discern where Tony Romo’s career is going. In fact, his career is what it is at this point. He’s been in the NFL for nine years. He’s 31 years old. Take his career at face value and you can label Romo as a classic choke artist with nice fantasy numbers. If you’ve had any questions about Romo’s career, well, there you go. A costly fumble at the goal line and terrible interception capped off Dallas’ week one loss to the Jets – a game in which the Cowboys appeared to be unstoppable through the air. Romo was criticized, then praised over the next two weeks for playing with cracked ribs and inching out wins over the 49ers in overtime (NFC West team) and the Redskins (about as ugly as a game can get without being Jets vs. Ravens). Then last week’s collapse to the Lions happened, and that was all we needed to see.

The Cowboys had a 27-3 lead and Romo was dismantling the Detroit secondary. Then, two interception return touchdowns later, it was 27-10. Romo felt it was necessary to throw his third interception, his worst and most inexplicable of the game, with 4:22 remaining in the fourth quarter to help set up Megatron’s last ridiculous catch. The Lions won 34-30, and Romo’s second half performance was the ultimate difference in the game. Unsurprisingly, his supporters felt the need to take some weight off his shoulders and look at the secondary issues. There are definite secondary issues in Dallas, but those problems are bound to manifest when the quarterback keeps putting his defense back on the field. Romo is what he is. It’s not a dig; it’s fact. Maybe he’ll do something spectacular one day, like improve on his 1-3 playoff record or take the Cowboys to the NFC Championship game for his first time. But it's doubtful.
On another note, did you know that LeBron James is a Cowboys fan? You probably did if you watch ESPN. But how ironic is it that LeBron and Romo share crazy inter-sport parallels? Both are at the core of their respective sports' hype, both obtain undeniable talent, and both find ways leave nothing to show for that talent. LeBron is also a Yankees fan, and some guy named A-Rod just struck out to end the Yankees’ season yesterday. I guess that’s another angle for another day. Enjoy the last three quarters of the NFL season, and let the ugliness mesmerize you as much as the greatness.

The Good, Great and Ugly from the NFL's First Quarter (Part 1)

2011-10-07T10:52:00.000-07:00

Remember when we were watching NFL players walking around in suits, wearing serious faces as negotiators every time we flipped the channel to ESPN? Now the regular season is already 25 percent through. One excruciatingly long off-season has led to what can already be considered an exciting and drama-filled regular season in just four short weeks. There have been some good moments, some great moments, and some undoubtedly ugly moments. It’s been everything a fan could ask for following such grim off-season outlooks filled with lockout subject matter. The times when dreary prospects of losing the season entirely floated through our minds have virtually been forgotten. It’s as if there was never anything to worry about.

The good can’t be mentioned without first mentioning Josh Freeman. His stats might not jump out at you (three touchdowns and four interceptions on the season with a mediocre 81.1 passer rating), but other than the NFL’s elite, there are not many quarterbacks with the leadership qualities Freeman obtains. He nearly led his Buccaneers to a comeback victory over the Detroit Lions in week one despite a 27-13 deficit with less than four minutes remaining, then concocted the comeback a week later after the Bucs trailed the Vikings at halftime 17-0. When he iced a victory over Atlanta in week three by forcing the Falcons to jump offside and achieve the necessary final first down, he finally turned some heads. Josh Freeman is a bright, burly, big-armed quarterback who’s shown several signs of brilliance at just 23 years of age. A season that was projected to be so-so due to Tampa Bay’s lack of activity in free agency is turning out to be fruitful in its early stages. Josh Freeman is the catalyst, and a significant drop-off from last season’s 10-6 record doesn’t appear likely with him under center.

On the other side of the country, the Bay Area is showing flashes of prevalence in the first four weeks. San Francisco is a surprising 3-1, and has made the most noise within its defensive front. The 49ers currently rank fourth in rushing defense after the first quarter of the season, and just completed an impressive comeback victory (depending on which perspective you’d like to take) over the Philadelphia Eagles last week. Call it a massive Eagles collapse if you’d like, but a bad team still rolls over when faced with a 23-3 third quarter deficit. The 49ers are certainly not bad. Moreover, Alex Smith played good, which doesn’t happen very often. The 49ers have grit – which is just enough in the putrid NFC West.

In the East Bay, the Silver & Black are re-awakening Raider Nation and stirring the pot with some scintillating football.
It started with Oakland’s first 1-0 start since 2002 in which Darren McFadden began his 2011 “Best Running Back in the NFL” campaign, and hasn’t disappointed since. Run DMC is proving to be the complete package as a runner, blazing past defenders with his straight-ahead speed, running over defenders with power, catching and running with precise vision on beautiful screen plays, and even lines up at wide receiver sparingly and runs surprisingly crisp routes. He’s the core of every trick play, which head coach Hue Jackson has a knack for calling at pristine moments. Last year, I typed a sentence about McFadden in this column, saying he would be the best back in the NFL in two years, but I took it out thinking people would jump all over me for it. I regret doing that; he could already be there. He’s the heart of an Oakland offense with frightening speed at skill positions (Jacoby Ford, Darrius Heyward-Bey and the rising Denarius Moore), and he’s the prototypical complement to Jason Campbell. Campbell was virtually mistake-free until last Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, but the Raiders still showed they could at least hang in there with one of the best teams in the league and not display total frailty. Exciting play doesn’t always culminate in a successful season, but the confidence the Raiders have carried over from last season’s sweep of the AFC West and the swagger that is continuing to build with Hue Jackson at the helm is changing the dynamic of the franchise. Although a 2-2 start would have been a reasonable prediction around schedule-release time, nobody would have thought the Raiders would do so in this fashion.

Although the Buccaneers, Raiders and Niners have displayed commendable assets, some extraordinary attributes have been portrayed in the first four weeks of the NFL season; and there’s no better place to start than Cam Newton.
I know he was already mentioned in the Week 1 Retrospective, but he’s worth mentioning again. Let’s start with the boring stuff first – stats. Newton has thrown for 1,386 yards with five touchdowns and five interceptions in his first four games as an NFL quarterback with an 84.5 passer rating. Most importantly, his 60 percent completion percentage is an above satisfactory mark for a rookie quarterback. He’s already the first rookie to throw for more than 400 yards in two games. Moreover, Newton has been given the offensive reins. Despite running back DeAngelo Williams’ hefty contract extension this past off-season, first-year head coach Ron Rivera has introduced a pass-heavy offensive scheme (which has been outlined pretty well here). Cam Newton has already attempted 163 passes and is on pace to attempt a whopping 615 throws this season, which would break Sam Bradford’s rookie record of 590. He’s also on pace to complete 388 throws this season, which would also be a rookie record. Nobody in the world would’ve projected these numbers by Cam “THE MAN” Newton before the season. (Yes, that is his nickname. Start catching on. Or just do what Deion Sanders does and blurt “CAAAMM!” every time he zings a pass or breaks the pocket. That one’s fun too.) But we could’ve predicted his attitude, which we talked about subsequent his week one performance. He’s on a mission to improve every week and makes his teammates better in the process. Wide receiver Steve Smith has been utterly reinvigorated (530 receiving yards through four games and averaging 22 yards per catch) and the Carolina Panthers are an extremely fun team to watch. Of the three premier early games last Sunday (Detrot/Dallas, San Fran/Philly, Pittsburgh/Houston), none caught my eye like Cam Newton and the Panthers versus Chicago. That’s how much of a leadership impact Cam Newton has had as the number-one overall pick, and it doesn’t look like he’s going to stop wowing us. It’s the intangibles.

Obviously, you can’t mention precocious greatness without mentioning the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Precocious for the Lions in the sense that, well, it’s the first time they’ve jumped out to a 4-0 start; and precocious for the Packers and their 4-0 start because Aaron Rodgers has now become the slinging savant that nobody thought he would ever get the chance to become.

Detroit’s unequivocally endearing greatness has been highlighted by its fearlessness. Regardless of the Lions’ talent, teams have to play a solid and complete four quarters against them every game. The defense may be suspect (20th in rushing defense and 29th in passing defense), but the offense is relentless and capable of capitalizing on even the slightest of breakdowns. The Vikings and Tony Romo have already exemplified that for us. They held off the patented Josh Freeman comeback in week one as well, so a mentality of experience is already building after four weeks.

Oh, and Calvin Johnson has been pretty good too. Eight of his 24 catches this season have been touchdowns. If you’re good at math, that’s one third of his catches. So every third time Calvin Johnson catches a pass, it’s of the touchdown variety – which is absurd. He’s become the preeminent red zone receiver, as he displayed with his touchdown catch in which he was draped with triple coverage against the Cowboys last Sunday. The fade route inside the 10 yard-line became an overused tactic in the NFL for a while, but “Megatron” is a can’t-miss in every red zone passing situation. If he’s not the best receiver in the NFL yet, he’s getting there. And how great of a nickname is “Megatron”? Doesn’t it fit him seamlessly? He literally looks unstoppable and nonhuman right now. Fans can’t get enough of him, and neither can Matthew Stafford.

As for the 4-0 Packers, Aaron Rodgers is the only player of discussion right now. We brought him up in the Week 1 Retrospective as well, but isn’t he making a case for top quarterback in the league right now? The way he plays the quarterback position – the pinpoint accuracy, gracious mobility and leadership bravado – is so much to marvel over. He’s so cool-headed that it’s immensely admirable. He never seems to get rattled, spreads the ball amongst a multitude of receivers, and finds ways to improvise on certain plays but make them appear beautiful at the same time. And are we going to see this play literally every game? Here it is again against the Broncos last Sunday. I literally shouted "It's that play again!" as it was happening. It’s become the patented Aaron Rodgers play-action fake bomb.

Granted, Tom Brady has been playing out of his mind this year, but I’d rather watch Aaron Rodgers play quarterback any day of the week. His savant-like play en route to Green Bay’s 4-0 start makes for some nice beginnings for a possible title defense.

The Bills have been great and are playing the part of Cinderella thus far, but last Sunday’s Bengals match-up was their first true test of focus. It’s tough to say that they failed dramatically, considering Cincinatti’s quietly stout defense (the Bengals have only allowed 18.5 points per game, which is currently sixth in the league; they are also third in total pass defense and seventh in total rush defense), but they still squandered a 17-3 halftime lead. Maybe things are getting back to normal again. It goes without question that Ryan Fitzpatrick is a reputable NFL quarterback, and he deserves a nice contract extension after this season. He and Stevie Johnson have a nice connection and Fred Jackson flanks them in a nice three-headed offensive attack. The Bills will have no problem putting up points this season and will continue to be an incendiary bunch, but a postseason aura hasn’t been developed. A win at home against the Eagles this Sunday would be a nice step in that development, considering Philadelphia’s current sense of urgency. Speaking of Philadelphia…

To read Part 2 of this column, featuring the "Ugly" from the NFL's first quarter, click here.

NFL Week 4 Preview: Four Doozies, Four Duds (and some extras)

2011-09-29T11:39:00.000-07:00

Remember when we said week one of the NFL season would be a nice barometer for the 2011-12 season? It seems a little obvious that it would be, but it really was. The Packers trampled the Saints defense, and now we realize that any team with a legitimate passing attack will do the same this year. Steven Jackson got hurt during his first big run of the season and the Rams’ season has been dreadful ever since. The Lions showed signs of true promise in week one, then the Buccaneers nearly pulled off the comeback behind Josh Freeman; followed by the Lions holding Freeman off and looking fantastic ever since. The Bucs still have a knack for comebacks (week two versus Minnesota) and can close games out behind a commendable quarterback (last week against Atlanta). The Ravens annihilated the Steelers in week one, let off the gas in week two and lost to Tennessee, then woke up and crushed a bad Rams team. The Steelers bounced back in week two and did what they were supposed to do against Seattle, then almost got blindsided by the Manning-less Colts last Sunday night. We’ve known what these two teams are all about in terms of talent and personnel these last few years, but it’s all about mentality in the AFC North at this point. The Cowboys were proving something until the fourth quarter in week one against the Jets, and have struggled to exude an outstanding offense ever since the Tony Romo choke-job. They squeaked out less-than-stellar victories over the 49ers and Redskins – two 2-1 teams that aren’t exactly for real at the moment. The Jets still attain characteristics of being able to hang around and steal some games, but a perpetually potent offense seems to be too much for the Jets to ultimately handle. Of the teams we covered in our season preview, a lot manifested in just three weeks.

Week four should paint an even clearer picture. As football fans (most notably: football fans that gamble), we try as best as we can to gain a grasp of how good teams are and what identities they obtain. The quarter mark is usually a premier time to start making assumptions. After all, there’s a big difference between 2-2 and 1-3, and even 4-0 and 3-1 for that matter. Moreover, teams have faced at least one formidable team by the quarter mark in which they have been tested to some degree. Let’s dive into a week four preview including the Four Doozies (games to watch) and Four Duds (games we probably won’t pay attention to, but might still be close games).

Four Doozies

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys

Every Sportscenter anchor has been asking every writer and analyst the same question all week: "Are the Lions and Bills for real?"

So far, the Lions look for real. Very much so. They staved of the Bucs in week one (which isn’t easy to do), did what good teams are supposed to do and blew out a horrendous Kansas City Chiefs team, and seized opportunity last week as the Vikings fell apart in the second half once again.

It wasn’t just that they took advantage of Minnesota’s inexplicable second half woes; it was how they did it. Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw two touchdown passes to Calvin Johnson, including one “go up and get it!” throw to start the third quarter. The Lions aren’t afraid to use their best players to their greatest extent, and capped off that notion with a gorgeous deep ball to Johnson to set up the game-winning field goal in overtime. Statistically, the Lions are a daunting passing team (fourth in total passing yards, tied for second in passing touchdowns), and are even more lethal to watch. Calvin Johnson is on pace to score 24 touchdowns this season (24!?!?!), Javhid Best is a speedster and the defense is relentless even though statistics may not say so. They’re a fearless team that doesn’t take games off (unlike the Steelers or Ravens), which is ostensibly going to be enough to break the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection curse that has been cast over the NFL since 2005. A 4-0 start breaks it immediately.
But Dallas is going to be Detroit’s biggest test thus far. The Cowboys may not look impressive so far this year, but the talent is there and Tony Romo is actually galvanizing the Cowboys. Did you see what Dez Bryant said after Monday night’s game? Romo playing through his rib injury is sparking belief in his teammates, which has to mean something. I don’t know how I’d feel if one of the most inconsistent talents in the NFL was my leader, but the Cowboys seem to feel differently. Plus, the Detroit secondary is the least trustworthy facet of the Lions’ squad. Romo could have himself a field day. Then choke another game away the following week.

The pick: COWBOYS (-1) over Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans

The Steelers are the Steelers. They still have one of the most sterling defenses in the NFL, the second-most improvisational quarterback in football, and a revolving door of sub-par offensive linemen with injury issues. On the other hand, the Texans are still the Texans. They can still put up a ton of points and give up a ton of passing yards in the process. So far, the Steelers are first in the NFL in opposing passing yards, but the Texans are playing at home and are fifth in the NFL in rushing without Arian Foster in the lineup (He's returning this week). However, the Texans don’t obtain much of a home-field advantage (4-4 last year), and the Steelers should have their heads on straight for this one. In a game like this, take the points. This is probably the most exciting game on the 1:00 P.M. ET slate, and undoubtedly the toughest to predict.

The pick: Steelers (+4) over TEXANS

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

Talk about a doozy! This game may finish with a combined score of 100! Both of these teams have real issues in the secondary, and both attain one perennial offensive asset (Tom Brady and the passing game for New England, Darren McFadden and the running game for Oakland). Ultimately, this game is going to come down to which offensive attack controls the tempo most effectively, and which team achieves better play calling. Hue Jackson has been incredibly admirable as an offensive play caller for the Raiders, and has pulled out fabulous trick plays in pristine momentum-swinging moments. All in all, the Raiders are the most exciting team in the NFL right now (Really!? The Raiders???). Darren McFadden is evolving into the best runningback in the NFL with his old-school running style (Oakland fans can’t get enough of him right now. We salivate every time he touches the ball. It feels like there’s nothing he can’t do out of the backfield), the speed at wide receiver is a lot to handle for any defense (with Jacoby Ford and Louis Murphy still injured) and the defensive line depth makes for a ruthless front four. Furthermore, the home field advantage in this game is going to be immense. Every Raider fan in Northern California has been fully anticipating this game since the final seconds counted down in last week’s Jets game. The “Tuck Rule” is still unforgotten in Raider Nation. A raucous home crowd behind both the defense and a quietly brilliant Jason Campbell gives the Raiders more than a shooter’s chance in this imminent shootout.
The pick: RAIDERS (+4) over Patriots

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

The Jets and Ravens have been somewhat confounding football teams so far. The Jets are a renowned run-the-ball/stuff-the-run team, yet they’re 25th and 31st in those categories, respectively. The Ravens seem to be the better team right now – their confounding moment was when they got caught sleeping in week two. If the Jets are truly the mentally tough, playoff-caliber team Rex Ryan makes them out to be, they will win this game. It would be detrimental if they didn’t, because the upcoming schedule isn’t so auspicious. After this Sunday night’s game, the Jets get the Patriots in New England, the Dolphins and Chargers at home, enjoy their bye week, then travel to Buffalo and come back home to the Patriots. A 2-2 record going into that stretch would be a grueling feat, so the J-E-T-S and the points seem like a safe pick. The Ravens are a very good team, but just like the Cowboys, it’s tough to trust their quarterback.

The pick: Jets (+3.5) over RAVENS

Four Duds

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns

The best part about these teams is they have some friskiness to them, especially at quarterback. That doesn’t mean that their quarterbacks are any good (because they aren’t), but they’re frisky enough to make things happen late in games. It’s an interesting comparison considering Colt McCoy’s young career and Matt Hasselbeck’s aging one, but they both headline a couple of bottom-tier annoyances. The Titans appear to be the better team, but Kenny Britt’s season-ending MCL/ACL tear may hinder the Titans enough to keep them out of contention this season. The Browns win this friskiness battle. Time will tell who wins the war.

The pick: BROWNS (-1) over Titans

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

These teams have been so bad that I don’t feel like writing more than one sentence. But in case you didn’t already know, the Vikings have been outscored 67-6 in the second half this season, and the Chiefs have been outscored 109-27 through three weeks. It’s hard to pick the Chiefs in any game for the rest of the year; they have no talent left outside of Dwayne Bowe with the injuries they’ve suffered. At least the Vikings have something.

The pick: Vikings (-1.5) over CHIEFS

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams

Why are the Rams so bad? It’s almost dumbfounding. This team literally has nothing going for them, while Redskins fans somehow have something to be hopeful about with Rex Grossman as their quarterback. This is the most perplexing dud of them all.

The Pick: Redskins (-1) over RAMS

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

This is undoubtedly the worst game of the week. Ignore Atlanta’s strange game against the Eagles on Sunday night in week two and the Falcons are a very bland team. Matt Ryan has put up mediocre numbers, Michael Turner rushed for 20 yards on 11 carries last week against a Buccaneers team that still ranks 23rd in rush defense despite that output. They also got utterly destroyed by the Bears in week one. The Falcons aren’t trustworthy whatsoever, but they’re also playing against an ugly NFC West team with Tarvaris Jackson as its quarterback. The dud of all duds. We’re taking the home team with the points.
The pick: SEAHAWKS (+4) over Falcons

Extras

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears

The Bears find ways to keep games close with good teams while looking like an awful team all at the same time. Cam Newton got his win despite a marginal output, although it was in a Carolina monsoon. It’s going to be tough for me to bet against CAM THE MAN the rest of the year, especially since Ron Rivera has him chucking the ball all over the place this season. The 6-point spread is too big in this one.

The pick: Panthers (+6) over BEARS

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals

Are the Bills for real??? I’m not sure. But I do know this: Ryan Fitzpatrick and Stevie Johnson are for real, and that’s enough for them to at least go 8-8 this year. A road game against a bad team will test Buffalo’s focus after a gigantic win.

The pick: Bills (-3.5) over BENGALS

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

If the 49ers win this game, it will be because they won it in the trenches. In other words, if the Eagles lose, it will mean they are a soft team that was constructed around a cast of skill-position players. Should the Eagles be this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, even though they can’t technically be considered a sleeper? Maybe they’re shaping a new trend. We’ll find out this week.

The pick: EAGLES (-9) over 49ers

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Josh Freeman’s first chance to shine in prime time. Although it’s against the Manning-less Colts, Indianapolis proved that its defensive line – still anchored by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis at the ends – is a force to be reckoned with. But disregard everything I just said, because this is Josh Freeman’s coming out party.

The pick: BUCS (-10) over Colts

Additional picks: Saints (-7) over JAGS; Giants (-1) over CARDINALS; Dolphins (+7) over CHARGERS; PACKERS (-12.5) over Broncos

Week 1 Retrospective: Categorizing Quarterback Impact (Part 2)

2011-09-16T10:53:00.000-07:00

This is part 2 of the two-part Week 1 Retrospective. To read Part 1, click here. For you non-gamblers, the picks below are against the spread.

The Promise: Cam Newton

Cam Newton had a ton of caveats attached to him when he was drafted with the number-one overall pick by the Carolina Panthers in April. He played in a system that contained absolutely no translation to the NFL game. He ran the ball as much as he passed. When he did pass, he wasn’t entirely accurate. But there’s one thing Cam Newton always attained throughout his college career, and it was the sole reason the Auburn Tigers won the BCS National Championship last year:

Intangibles.

The believers in Cam Newton from day one knew this would be an essential asset right away. To use a comparison perspective as an example, Newton carries a similar confidence to Donovan McNabb. Nothing fazes him, pressure doesn’t get to him at all, and he actually likes being in the spotlight. If he weren’t selected with the number one overall pick, it probably would’ve felt strange to him. There’s no question he realizes that if the Panthers reach a .500 record or better, he’ll be the reason why. Players like him revel in those types of moments, no matter what skills they obtain. So when Newton bolted out the gate last week with a 422-yard, two-touchdown passing performance with an Auburn-influenced rushing touchdown at the goal line for good measure, he made us pay attention. It wasn’t just because it was one of the greatest rookie quarterback debuts in NFL history, and it wasn’t just because he made handful of extraordinary throws deep down the field; it was because he conveyed the intangibles that fixated us on a Carolina offense that was one of the worst ever last season. He transcended an offense that used to feature Jimmy Clausen getting mercifully sacked every other play. Intangibles are capable of adapting in a multitude of new ambiances. It was only one game, but it was enough for fans to realize Newton is a competitor. Which is enough to spark belief.

Week 2 outlook: Newton puts up a valiant effort but struggles against the defending Super Bowl champion Packers, bringing him back to rookie earth. There’s now way he’s THIS good yet. A couple of turnovers and maybe a pick-six highlight his performance.

Pick: Packers (-10) over PANTHERS

The Elite: Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Mike Vick, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady

NFL fans already know that this is the undisputed elite class of quarterbacks in the league (with Ben Roethlisberger in the conversation). But who impacted his team the most this week?

You could make a case that Mike Vick and Peyton Manning didn’t, because Vick only threw for 187 yards with a completion percentage of 44% and Manning didn’t even play. But how big of an impact does Manning have by not playing? Possibly larger than any other quarterback in the NFL being on the field? And what about Vick? Don’t you think his presence alone has something to do with LeSean McCoy averaging eight yards a carry against a commendable St. Louis defense last week? Despite the possibility of Vick becoming a one-hit-wonder for the Eagles, he’s still elite because the mere presence of him being on the field calls for it. And the mere absence of Peyton Manning makes the Indianapolis Colts 30 points worse on offense.
As for Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, the San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints have engrained identities because of the two quarterbacks. The Chargers seemed in trouble, down 17-7 to Minnesota at halftime in week 1 due to customary San Diego special teams miscues. But once the second half started, Rivers started slinging the ball downfield like he never missed a beat. The Chargers won 24-17 and made the Vikings look dreadful again because Rivers played so well in the second half. Brees seemed as though he never missed a beat from the get-go, putting up gaudy numbers in the process (419 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions), and solidified the Saints as a contender this season despite the loss. The Packers weren’t losing to anyone on Thursday Night, and the Saints came pretty close to winning.

If Manning comes back from his injury as a shadow of himself, there will be two quarterbacks standing atop the mountain of quarterback prominence: Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Fitting that they both played in prime-time games in week 1, Rodgers and Brady dished out performances as if they were indirectly battling one another. Rodgers was 27-35 for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns and made throws that seemed literally untouchable for defenders (most notably: his trademark back-shoulder fade). He ate up the Saints defense the same way he ate up Atlanta and Pittsburgh in the playoffs and Super Bowl last season. He laughed at the fact that the media put so much merit into limited training camp hours because of the lockout, and then threw the football with ease to Greg Jennings and his Green Bay receivers like he was flinging it around in the park on a Saturday afternoon. With Peyton Manning injured, not one quarterback makes the quarterback position look easier than Aaron Rodgers with the same bravado.
Oh, and Tom Brady broke another record like he always does. Brady is the proven commodity of this cohort (as his three Super Bowl rings can attest), but Aaron Rodgers is nipping at his heels to take the top spot. The Green Bay Packer offense is already showing signs of efficiency that compare to Brady’s Patriots of 2007. Once vulnerability manifests, then the elite of the elite can be determined. For now, Aaron Rodgers has thrown himself into a legitimate top-quarterback debate in an era laden with prolific passing.

Week 2 outlook: Drew Brees doesn’t let up as the Saints squeeze by a Bears team that plays better than they really are at the beginning of the season, the Colts continue to struggle without Peyton Manning but at least look somewhat competitive against the Browns, Rivers and Brady duke it out against one another in a tight one as the Chargers try to forget their postseason history against the Patriots, and Mike Vick becomes the main attraction in a scintillating “Welcome Home Party” performance in Atlanta.

Picks: Bears (+6.5) over SAINTS; Browns (-2.5) over COLTS; Chargers (+7) over PATRIOTS; Eagles (-2.5) over FALCONS

Additional Picks: JETS (-9) over Jaguars; Buccaneers (+3) over VIKINGS; Texans (-3) over DOLPHINS; Bengals (+4) over BRONCOS

Week 1 Retrospective: Categorizing Quarterback Impact (Part 1)

2011-09-15T11:02:00.000-07:00

Week 1 of the most anticipated NFL season in recent memory is in the books, and it couldn’t have transpired in a more satisfying fashion. We saw scoring (Packers vs. Saints on Thursday night), impressive performances (Baltimore, Philadelphia’s offense), less-than-impressive performances (Kansas City, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Tony Romo), amazing individual performances and even some record-breaking ones (Sebastian Janikowski’s 63-yard field goal to tie the NFL record, Tom Brady’s 517-yard Monday Night Football passing record and Patriots record, Wes Welker’s record-tying 99-yard reception), and, most of all, some outlandish fantasy football performances.

But the most intriguing outputs from across the league ultimately came from the quarterback position. The class of quarterbacks that currently inhabit the NFL impact the league substantially because, well, there hasn’t been this many exceptional quarterbacks in the NFL in a long time. The quarterback class of the 90s comes the closest (John Elway, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, Brett Favre, Jim Kelly, Warren Moon), and the passers of the 80s make a case because of Joe Montana and Dan Marino specifically, but also featured the likes of Elway, Moon, Joe Theismann, Phil Simms, Randall Cunningham and Boomer Esiason.

Some of those quarterbacks wouldn’t be considered elite if they played in the game today. The pure preciseness and preparation regimens passers have engendered are making the NFL so quarterback-oriented that it’s defying traditional football philosophy. You can say it’s the rule changes and the minimal contact receivers now have to deal with at the line of scrimmage, but that has nothing to do with the fact that the best quarterbacks in the NFL are now unwavering savants.

The impact quarterbacks have on the league was more than apparent in week 1, both good and bad. A significant group of quarterbacks portrayed so, and we’ll separate them into four categories based on what we saw last week. Additionally, we’ll parlay their week two prospects into some gambling predictions.

The Conundrums: Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo

Each one of these quarterbacks played sloppily in his own way, which obviously proved detrimental. Matt Ryan’s Sunday was highlighted by a spinning scramble to his left, followed by an attempt to catch his fall with his right hand (the hand which was holding the football), and left the ball on the turf for a Bears defender to recover. The Falcons were down 23-6 at that point – already playing horrifically behind bad tackling – and that very turnover with 6:00 remaining in the third quarter sealed the deal.

Sam Bradford played lethargically all game for the Rams, conveying difficulties in hitting his receivers on third down and never appeared on the same page with them at all. The highlight of the St. Louis offense came on a 47-yard touchdown run by Steven Jackson in the first quarter, but Jackson ended up straining a quad muscle on that very run and only returned for one more play. The Rams had no way to exploit Philadelphia’s weak linebacker core thereafter, and Sam Bradford’s ugly performance never stood a chance to make up for it. The up-and-comer finished the game 17-of-30 with only 188 yards and zero touchdowns. The Rams were a horrendous 2-12 on third down and only scored six points in the final three quarters.

Ben Roethlisberer accounted for five turnovers alone, highlighted by his most dismal (yet usually patented) throw, as he rolled to his left and heaved a pass across the middle of the field to Baltimore safety Ed Reed. Reed is guaranteed to be lurking in center field in that very situation almost every time, yet Roethlisberger still felt the urge to test Reed’s perennial prowess in center field while rolling to his left as a right-handed quarterback. Big Ben is known for his immaculate improvisational skills, but that very play capped off an already-appalling Pittsburgh performance with 11:00 remaining in the fourth quarter. Losing 35-7 to the archrival Ravens undoubtedly stung Steelers fans and probably will for a few weeks.

As for Tony Romo, it was a classic performance. He played well all game, playing maestro in an imposing offensive symphony. For three quarters against the Jets on Sunday night, the 2011 Cowboys were already showing signs of turning over a new leaf. Then Tony Romo reminded us all why he’s Tony Romo, fumbling just a yard shy of the goal line midway through the fourth quarter, deterring Dallas’ chances of obtaining a two-touchdown lead and putting the game virtually out of reach. Once the Jets tied the game at 24, Romo subsequently threw an interception that immediately put the Jets in field goal range. As always, Romo put up fabulous numbers (23-36, 342 yards, 2 touchdowns, a 101.9 passer rating), but, as Romo has done so many times before, he deflated the Cowboys all on his own. There’s a difference between a great fantasy quarterback and a quarterback that can win you football games and ultimately playoff games. The only difference between Romo and the other aforementioned quarterbacks: he’s not a conundrum. Conventional opinion would say he is, but conventional wisdom would say that nothing about his week 1 performance was shocking.

Week 2 outlook: Matt Ryan struggles once again and the “What’s wrong with Matt Ryan?” questions will be answered by ESPN analysts all week, this time after dealing with an Eagles defense that appears to have the kind of speed that irritates the Falcons. Sam Bradford has a nice bounce-back game versus a terrible Giants secondary, Big Ben throws for 350 yards against the Seahawks and the Pittsburgh fans feel somewhat alleviated, and Tony Romo lights up the San Francisco secondary and everybody forgets how bad he is.

Picks: STEELERS (-14) over Seahawks; Cowboys (-3) over 49ERS; Eagles (-2.5) over FALCONS; Rams (+6) over GIANTS

Pleasant Performances: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Rex Grossman, Matt Stafford, Joe Flacco
Ryan Fitzpatrick put up respectable numbers (17-25, 208 yards, four touchdowns and zero picks) in a 41-7 route over the Chiefs that featured some surprisingly scintillating offense. Wide receiver Stevie Johnson seems to be Fitzpatrick’s favorite target and an exciting commodity, and Fred Jackson somehow carried over his quietly commendable rushing from last season. The Buffalo Bills have somehow become a fun team to watch – a trickle-down effect of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s quarterback play.

Rex Grossman played well in his Washington debut (yes, I really did just say that with complete seriousness), albeit against a Giants team that could be terrible. But still, 305 yards with two touchdowns and no picks is absolutely outstanding for Grossman’s standards, and the Redskins might be decent this year if he keeps it going. That is, if he keeps it going.

Matt Stafford got through a whole game without getting injured (Almost. He limped off the field at least once), and that was the difference in the Lions’ week one victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh Freeman almost added yet another comeback victory to his young resume, but the two-touchdown deficit was just too much to come back from. Without Stafford, Calvin Johnson wouldn’t have made his two beautiful touchdown catches, which were ultimately the difference in the game. Just as in week 1, Stafford will be the difference in defying the laws of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection this season.

Joe Flacco made some beautiful throws in a pristine statistical performance, contrary of his opponent’s output. Flacco has shown signs of greatness in his young career but has never seemed to sustain it. A convincing week 1 victory over the Ravens’ biggest rivals is an auspicious start, and now the Ravens have the look of a serious Super Bowl contender after only one week.

Week 2 outlook: Ryan Fitzpatrick duels with Oakland’s fast defense in an exciting, high-scoring affair and racks up over 300 yards, Rex Grossman plays respectably once again with 200 yards and a touchdown against Arizona, Joe Flacco duplicates his week 1 performance in a route over Tennessee, and Matt Stafford dismantles the Kansas City defense at a higher level than Fitzpatrick, putting the laws of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection in jeopardy.

Picks: LIONS (-9) over Chiefs; BILLS (-3.5) over Raiders (I know, I’m picking against my own team. It’s an early Sunday game on the East Coast for a West Coast team after a short week. I’m not confident. And the Bills are a little scary.); REDSKINS (-4) over Cardinals, Ravens (-6) over TITANS

Part 2 of this column features "The Promise" and "The Elite." To read Part 2, click here.

SFE NFL Preview, Part II of II: Using Week 1 as a Barometer

2011-09-08T10:36:00.000-07:00

Instead of mapping out an entire NFL preview including all 32 NFL teams like every other blog post entitled “2011 NFL Preview”, let’s do something a little different. Five games in week one jump out as possible indicators of what to expect from some teams in the upcoming season. We’ll leave the 32-team breakdown to Bill Barnwell. Here are the five games:

New Orleans at Green Bay (Thursday night)
The 2009-10 Super Bowl champs vs. the 2010-11 Super Bowl champs. Drew Brees vs. Aaron Rodgers. One athletic and wonderfully schemed defense vs. another. Could there be a more perfect opening game? Who cares if the opening Monday Night Football games are sub-par when we’re getting this astounding game four days earlier? The weather should be beautiful for Green Bay’s standards, and neither team should be noticeably affected by the lockout based on the engrained continuity and experience they already share. It’s the best game we could possibly ask for following an uncertain offseason.

To top it all off, these two teams will probably exude traits indicative of what we’ll see for the rest of the season right off the bat. Both of these teams are considered potential Super Bowl contenders with abstract caveats. The talent is there, and the systems are there, but will they perform?

The only concern for the Packers is the Super Bowl hangover. It manifests more often than not in the NFL, and if Green Bay does elude the contagion while concurrently gaining health (15 players on IR last year and still won the Super Bowl, but everyone knows that already), then the Packers have the best chance to repeat since the latest Patriots dynasty.

If the Saints stifle Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees lights up the scoreboard, New Orleans will appear lethal immediately. Brees was quietly below standards last season (completed 68% of his passes and threw for 4,620 yards, yet threw a career-high 22 interceptions) and the team still managed an 11-5 record and a playoff appearance with the Super Bowl hangover to consider. Because of that, the Saints are the scariest team in the NFL prospectively and an impressive week one performance on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions would be just enough to back that up. Throw in newly acquired running back depth (Darren Sproles, rookie Mark Ingram along with the incumbent Pierre Thomas), health, experience, and brilliant schemes on both sides of the football, and the Saints are more than capable of using week one as a catapult for an exceptional season.

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams

For those of you wondering why the Eagles weren’t this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, it’s because they’re not considered a sleeper. There’s a reason why the word is in the title of the phenomenon. The Eagles have unquestionably been the most talked about team all offseason, but they did finish 11-5 last season and made a playoff appearance, so something good is already in place. The problem is, the expectations created by augmenting something good with notable acquisitions have the potential of backfiring. All-Pro Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie were added to the secondary, Ronnie Brown for running back depth, Steve Smith for wide receiver depth, and quarterback Mike Vick was extended for a hefty $100 million. Suddenly, the Eagles are a Super Bowl favorite flanked by a mass of bandwagoners. Furthermore, Vick was given an extension only two years removed from prison and subsequent a season that literally nobody predicted. With aberration factor at the quarterback position and absolutely no continuity to work with following the lockout, Philadelphia’s first game is more crucial than any other team in the league – so matching up with the Rams couldn’t be a better way to kick things off.

Quarterback Sam Bradford is an already emerging star with weapons to work with and newly acquired depth in the backfield. The Rams are a legitimate team on the rise, and obtain the potential to pull off some we’re-young-and-don’t-know-any-better wins against quality opponents. The team was already gaining a sense of identity last season, but somehow didn’t manifest in the last regular season game against the Seattle Seahawks, which knocked them out of playoff contention.

The Rams are still young, but the pieces and the potential are there. If they beat the Eagles week one, they’ll already looking at playoff prospects and Philadelphia will already start feeling the heat. If the Eagles win, well, they’ll be meeting expectations while the young team licks its wounds and learns from its youthful mistakes.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you read the first part of this preview, you already know what the Lions are facing this season. As for the Bucs, they’re coming off a season in which they enjoyed an exceedingly comfortable schedule. The promise is there with a budding talent in Josh Freeman at quarterback and a head coach in Raheem Morris that the players fully believe in. But if the Lions really are that sleeper team that everyone thinks they are, Tampa is in trouble. If the Lions truly are cursed by being this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection, then the Bucs will roll through week one behind a 275-yard, 3-touchdown performance by Freeman. The most intriguing week one matchup that nobody is talking about consists of some equally intriguing implications.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

If you know the NFL, you know what to expect from this game: Punishing defense, smash-mouth, grind-it-out offense, a handful of dazzling plays by Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, maybe one perfect back-shoulder fade by Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco for a touchdown, Troy Polamalu flying around the field for Pittsburgh, Ed Reed playing center field for Baltimore, a combined score of less than 30, etc., etc., etc.

But when have we ever seen these teams play in week one? How big of a deal is this? How do the Ravens rebound after losing to their archrivals at home in week one? Can they afford to be demoralized by such a loss if this year is finally the year the defense ages?

As for the Steelers, their last two championships have been separated by two seasons, and the last time the Steelers won the Super Bowl was in the 2008-09 season. So if there was a “prospectively scariest team in the NFL besides the New Orleans Saints” entitlement to hand out, it would be given to the Steelers. The experience is there, an identity is in place, the lockout will have virtually no affect, and, as always, defense wins championships. The Steelers are a nice preseason Super Bowl pick, but an opening Sunday loss to the hated Ravens changes all of those notions.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets

NBC should jumpstart its opening Sunday Night Football game by calling it the “Show Me What You Got” game, and play that terrible video you just watched just to remind us it’s on network television. This is the year for both of these teams to prove something.

For the Jets, it’s proving they’re capable of reaching the expectations head coach Rex Ryan puts in front of them every season – winning the Super Bowl (or at least getting there). For the Cowboys, it’s proving they’re a viable postseason team.

Both Tony Romo and Mark Sanchez have something to prove, and both will probably be expected to have the best seasons of their careers in order for their respective teams to succeed. Both teams have noticeable holes (the Jets’ offensive line lost some key pieces and is now in question when it used to be the best in the NFL; the Cowboys whiffed on the Asomugha sweepstakes and couldn’t shore up their thin secondary) surrounded by reliable, experienced talent. The Jets are in a much better position in terms of team identity, but if Jason Garrett becomes the answer at head coach in his first full season with the Cowboys, Dallas may finally get over the hump in a season in which America’s team isn’t even the most prevalent team in its own division. A week one victory over a Jets team that’s been to the AFC championship two years running would be a significant step in getting over that hump.

Does the entire season hinge on week one for all of the aforementioned teams? Probably not, but it will be a huge indicator. If the first week of the season wasn’t anticipated enough already, it is now considering how much a loss means outside of a simple 0-1 record. So try to enjoy the opening games, even if your team doesn’t look so good. Back to football.

SFE NFL Preview, Part I of II: The Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection

2011-09-05T10:47:00.000-07:00

By now, proclaiming everyone is ready for some football would be an understatement. Sports fans have been thoroughly excited since the NFL lockout ended and the free-agent frenzy dominated the sports world. But, in retrospect, the lockout didn’t hinder fans’ 2011 football season at all. Yes, maybe it stressed all of us out. A lot. But no preseason games were lost (with the exception of the Hall of Fame game) and, most importantly, no regular season games were lost. The lockout unequivocally harmed teams and players by pushing free agency back nearly five months and leaving newcomers and rookies virtually no practice time to gel with their teammates. Us fans got off easy.

However, we still see signs plastered on the walls of every sports bar and NFL ads with “Back to Football” headings shouting at us in large fonts. The anxiety rendered by the possibility of not having a football season was enough for it to feel as though there was something lost, when the product will be in full force by this Thursday. We should be glad we lost at least a few months of Merril Hoge’s opinions.

But because this will be the most anticipated NFL season in recent memory, it deserves a two-part preview. Beginning with something that was first discovered last season: The Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection.

If you don’t know what it is, let me explain in the shortest terms possible: The team with the utmost expectations of promise based on the second-half performance of the preceding season and/or offseason acquisitions of notoriety. The team usually doesn’t make the playoffs during that season, but does enough to make fans and analysts excited about the following season’s projections. The team is always expected to have its “breakout” season. In turn, the excess hype causes that team to ensue a season of inexplicable, yet inevitable disappointment. As a fan, you do not want your team to be the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection.

Last season, the selection became the San Francisco 49ers. The 2009 season ended well, Mike Singleterry brought a fresh ambiance to the team, Vernon Davis began to blossom and the division was projected to be the worst in the NFL. The 49ers were supposed to be the next team on the rise. Then they started the 2010 season 0-4 and, well… yeah.

This season’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection: The Detroit Lions. The Lions qualify for this year’s curse based on four red flags:

Red Flag #1: Injury Concerns
The most obvious caveat when attempting to defend the Lions’ hopes for a breakout season. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has played a total of 13 games in his first two NFL seasons. Recurring shoulder separations are nothing to sneeze at in the game of football, especially at the quarterback position when the throwing shoulder is involved. With premier pass rushers such as Jared Allen and Julius Peppers (who induced Stafford’s injury in week 1 of last season) lurking within the NFC North division, a full season of complete health for Stafford is nowhere near a guarantee. Top that off with some additional injury concerns (runningback Jahvid Best suffered a concussion this preseason; first round draft pick Nick Fairley and cornerback Alphonso Smith both suffered injuries in training camp; Nate Burleson re-aggravated a previous elbow injury this preseason which will undoubtedly diminish Detroit’s depth at wide receiver), and the Lions don’t look as promising on paper as they do ostensibly.

Red Flag #2: Statistical Red Flags

Talent illuminated within the Lions’ defensive line last year, anchored by rookie defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. The team recorded 44 sacks (sixth in the NFL), yet allowed 7.3 yards per pass attempt. With Nathan Vasher recently cut by the team and Smith’s injury to consider, the Lions appear vastly weak at the cornerback position. Not a good sign considering an NFC North division consisting of Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, Jay Cutler and Mike Martz’s system in Chicago, and Donovan McNabb in a much more promising atmosphere in Minnesota.

Detroit relied heavily on its defensive line and offensive playmakers to remain competitive last season. If the ground game wasn’t such an issue (23rd in the NFL last season), maybe the Lions would be capable of combating secondary woes with a stable offense. Secondary issues in a pass-heavy division and uncertainties in the offensive line are enough to second-guess Detroit’s playoff expectations.

Red Flag #3: The Schedule

Detroit’s first five games this season: at Tampa Bay, Kansas City, at Minnesota, at Dallas, at Chicago. Throw in tough contests against Atlanta (week 7), Green Bay (week 12), New Orleans (week 13), San Diego (week 16) and Green Bay again (week 17), and the Lions have one of the most daunting schedules in football this season. Even if the Lions semi-meet expectations and are in the playoff mix by week 12, The Saints are still on the horizon along with San Diego and the Packers twice. Their season schedule is somewhat frontloaded and very backloaded. A bad start implodes the season immediately; a playoff-caliber season capped off with a 3-5 or 2-6 second half would be all but disheartening – inauspicious prospects for a young, encouraging team.

Red Flag #4: The Expectations

Unquestionably the biggest red flag of all and the epicenter of every season’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection. The Philadelphia Eagles have been the most talked about team this offseason as the self-proclaimed “Dream Team.” But the Lions have been the ubiquitous breakout selection across the board and obtain the qualities of a true sleeper. Nearly every analyst, writer and TV host is salivating over this team. Michelle Beadle displayed her Detroit jubilance after the Lions’ impressive draft day. ESPN’s Matt Williamson, host of the Football Today podcast, fell in love with the team from what he assessed in the preseason. When the defensive line mauled Tom Brady with seven hits to the quarterback and two sacks in the third preseason game, the Lions made offseason noise once again.

Furthermore, the competitive fire the team exuded last season has engendered a lasting impact on the team’s assessments. Close losses that were within the grips of victory highlighted the first half of the season, as the team was victimized by questionable officiating against Chicago in week one, then proceeded to lose its close affairs to quality opponents (Philadelphia in week 2, Green Bay in week 4, the New York Jets in week 9, and Chicago in week 13).

This is where the seed of Detroit’s 2011 Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection status was planted. Nourishment was given to the seed during the team’s final four games of 2010, as the Lions finished the stretch with a pristine 4-0 record. The plant grew taller and taller as offseason moves were made and immense expectations were placed. All that’s left is for Detroit’s season of inexplicable disappointment to come to fruition. It’s not their fault. The NFL works in mysterious and karmic ways. As always, be careful which team you hype up next.

August Analysis: The Eastern Empires

2011-08-10T14:48:00.000-07:00

The hype leading up the Rise of the Planet of the Apes didn’t interest me at all. As a 21 year-old with no fanatical background of the Planet of the Apes movie franchise, I watched each trailer numbly and never felt remotely excited to watch. Was it because I knew how big of a following the movie already attained? Being cognizant of that following and knowing that I probably wasn’t going to see the movie, was I just relying on at least one of my friends to tell me about it first before I decided? Was I apathetic because I didn’t remember much from the 2001 release but every online review told me it sucked? I wasn’t completely sure.
Somehow, I ended up seeing the midnight premier after a night of bowling. Pure happenstance. By the time I walked out of the theater, I was exceedingly satisfied. I was impressed with the cinematography and camera work, engulfed by the polarizing connection between James Franco’s character and Caesar (the lead monkey which becomes intelligently enhanced by a drug intended to cure Alzheimer’s), transfixed by the way Caesar eventually lured fellow monkeys into his following, and enjoyed the action scenes that concluded the film. It was an awesome movie that’s worth seeing more than once in theaters.

And for some reason, the storyline about the rise of an empire is more gratifying one of an existing reign. I’m a college student with standard cable, so I wasn’t able to watch last weekend’s series between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox until Sunday night. The first Sunday Night Baseball promo I saw (which was about this time last week) had me hooked instantly. Yes! Yankees/Red Sox! The biggest rivalry in sports on national television on my HD TV? I know where I’ll be spending my Sunday night!

Then the game came on, and it was gratifying for about two innings. It’s always fun to see the Yankees come to Fenway Park (the vintage atmosphere, the boisterous crowd, Derek Jeter getting booed profusely, the shouts of YOUUUKKKKK!!!! every time Kevin Youkilis makes a routine out from third or gets a base hit, the love for David Ortiz, the Green Monster in left field, etc., etc.), but all of that stuff is indulged and fully digested by the fourth inning at best. By the fifth inning, I was totally disconnected, playing Words With Friends and perusing over my Twitter and Facebook feeds. Mostly because the game had been on for about two hours and it was only the fifth inning.

We could get into all the problems with the game of baseball, but that’s another story for another day. To put it simply: games are just way too long sometimes, most notably when the Yankees and Red Sox play one another. National League baseball has become more fun to watch this season; mostly because you can watch the Giants and Phillies play a two-hour game featuring a magnificent pitching duel in two hours. It takes Josh Beckett two hours to throw one pitch.

Putting all of those negatives aside, the Yankees and Red Sox are still two of the three most talented teams in baseball. One of the chief reasons it’s hard to stay connected is because they’re two of the few teams that don’t have anything to worry about in August. They may be playing with genuine senses of urgency now that baseball has entered its backstretch, but it’s not palpable for fans because we automatically assume that the Eastern Empires have literally nothing to play for until October. They’re basically locked into playoff positions.

But it’s difficult not to marvel over the talent, albeit purchased rather than groomed. The Red Sox feature the best hitting in all of baseball, ranking first in the majors in batting average (.281), on-base percentage (.354), slugging percentage (.457) wOBA (.355), and rank second in home runs. (For information on what wOBA is, it is hyperlinked above. The stat has now become the most prevalent form of hitting stat, taking into account every hitting aspect in the sport and weighting the ones that are more imperative when it comes to reaching base. In simple terms, it most accurately describes how good or bad a hitter is at the plate, not how good or bad he has at merely hitting the ball. Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays is currently this year’s leader in wOBA, with a .452 average.)
This just in: the Red Sox are good at the plate. Unfairly good. So good that they induced a blown save by Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning on Sunday with beautiful baseball (Jacoby Ellsbury bunted Marco Scutaro from second to third, allowing Dustin Pedroia to perform a sacrifice fly to score the run) and later won in the tenth behind Josh Reddick’s walk-off hit to score David Ortiz. Prior to Reddick’s at-bat, the red-hot Carl Crawford was walked, but it didn’t matter.

Do you see how cruelly unfair that is? In a lineup filled with All-Stars and MVP considerations, the nine hitter (Scutaro) scored the tying run against the machine known as the Sandman, and Crawford was walked in the tenth to bring up the seven hitter (Reddick), who drove in the winning run.

And although they lost the contest, the Yankees are really good too. Their hitting numbers rank second in the majors to the Red Sox in almost every category, and, surprisingly, they lead the American League in steals (116). CC Sabathia has been putting up Cy Young numbers all season (until he faced the Red Sox, of course), and despite critiques within the starting rotation, the Yankees are actually third in team ERA (.352).

However, we can’t mention these juggernauts without mentioning some flaws because, well, would we consider these teams empires if we didn’t expect them to fall at some point? We could go into detail about how good the Red Sox personnel is, but it’s already been done marvelously right here. The truth is, their starting pitching is secretly sub-par (ninth in the AL and nineteenth in the majors with a .411 ERA), and Clay Bucholz was recently placed on the 60-day disabled list. So the current playoff rotation consists of a locked-in Josh Beckett, John Lester, a horrendous John Lackey and either a 90 year-old Tim Wakefield or newly acquired Erik Bedard. Bucholz could possibly return for the postseason, but it’s unsure if he’ll completely be the same after recovering from a stress fracture to his vertebrae. As the San Francisco Giants taught us last postseason, starting pitching is the equivalent to defense in the NFL: It wins championships.

As for the Yankees, they’ve been confronted with more of a conundrum rather than a flaw. Alex Rodriguez is expected to return to the lineup next week, which will inevitably bolster New York’s already-powerful hitting prowess and improve their fielding (the Yankees are a mediocre seventh in the AL in fielding percentage, fourteenth in MLB. For some reason, Rodriguez doesn’t qualify for individual fielding percentage, but his .979 percentage is higher than any qualified third baseman and he has only committed four errors all year).

Rodriquez will bring much-needed balance to the Yankees’ roster, but could concurrently decrease a strength upon his return. Curtis Granderson is having a phenomenal season in both hitting and running the base paths, and his presence at the third spot in New York’s order has been an imposing one. How often do teams have to face a three hitter with 29 home runs at this point in the season (third in MLB) and 22 stolen bases? If you challenge him, he has the ability to drive the ball out of the park, and if you pitch around him, you leave a lethal runner on base with Mark Teixeira at the plate. Those situations give a pitcher a variety of things to consider along with executing his pitches.

Once A-Rod returns, Granderson will presumably drop to sixth in the order, where he will inevitably make less of an impact. His power will make the bottom half of the order more daunting, but his threat as a base runner won’t be as exasperating for opposing pitchers. The Yankees are currently suffering a three-game losing streak, so maybe change will be a good thing.

But we’re nitpicking here, because the Yankees and Red Sox still exude traits that resemble the empires of baseball. When you’re faced with conundrums that spot Curtis Granderson at sixth in your order, it’s safe to say you’re doing okay. When you’re lacking depth in your starting rotation but have hitting potent enough to leave the saving to the best closer in 2011 (Jonathan Papelbon is 25/26 in save opportunities this season), then it’s safe to say you’re doing fine.

When it comes to notorious greatness, predicaments and minor flaws are more interesting to point out than the assets. One thing’s for sure: hype won’t be necessary for the Yankees and Red Sox once the postseason hits. Everybody will be far too aware of what the Sox and Yanks bring to the table, and nobody will be significantly interested. That is, until they face off in the ALCS.

Baseball's Backstretch: 5 reasons to watch the National League

2011-08-07T21:55:00.000-07:00

Let’s just put it out there: The American League is a better baseball league than the National League. There’s more talent, the bottom of teams’ orders are worth watching, pitchers don’t waste their time in the batter’s box, the two most vaunted and popular franchises reside in the American League, and, oh yeah… there’s a lot more talent.

However, even as a massive AL proponent, I’ve come to grips with the fact that the National League has been vastly more enjoyable to watch in 2011. So much that it’s superseded my AL interest.

The calendar has now flipped to August, which means Major League Baseball’s stretch run (roughly 50 games remaining) is upon us. Here are five reasons to fix your attention on the National League during that stretch:

1. Individual Performances
The NL MVP race is so unusual that it’s difficult not to follow the intrigue. The two leading candidates (Matt Kemp and Lance Berkman) are immensely dissimilar. Berkman is posting a league-leading .993 OPS, a .595 SLG% and is also leading the league in home runs (28). Kemp is exuding premier athleticism (28 stolen bases) atop phenomenal hitting prowess (.317 AVG, .394 OBP% and .580 SLG%). And for you sabermetric stat junkies, his wRC+ (a weighted measurement that calculates how many runs a player has directly created) is three runs higher than Berkman’s, and his WAR (Wins Above Replacement Player) is at 5.3 compared to Berkman’s 3.5. In other words, sabermetric statistics are giving us a clearer picture of the minutia of a specific player’s output on the baseball field, yet only makes things complicated when comparing players such as Matt Kemp and Lance Berkman on an MVP ballot.

On top of that, if the season ended today, neither of these players would be featured in the postseason. The Los Angeles Dodgers have been out of contention for the majority of the season, and the St. Louis Cardinals have become both a victim of small bumps in the road and Milwaukee's recent surge. MVP endowment and headlining a contending club usually go hand in hand, but not this season. Take into account the magnificent seasons of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Matt Holliday and we have a legitimate 50-game MVP race.

Moreover, the offensive talent pool is purely better this season than in the NL’s past. Beyond the players previously mentioned, reigning NL MVP Joey Votto is still producing, Jose Reyes is sustaining an electrifying season, Troy Tulowitzki (TULO!!!) is still fun to watch and is actually tied for the NL’s best WAR value (5.6) with Reyes, Brian McCann has been turning heads as the best catcher in baseball, and Andrew McCutchen, Justin Upton and Mike Stanton are all emerging as three of the best young outfielders in baseball. Mesh that with the four aces in Philadelphia, the most complete pitching staff in baseball in San Francisco, Clayton Kershaw, Jair Jurrjens, Tim Hudson, Johnny Cueto and some commendable closers and you’re looking at a pretty good league from nearly every aspect.

2. Unpredictability

The biggest problem with the AL right now is that it’s boring. The same names are at its forefront (Yankees and Red Sox), the defending AL champion Rangers will imminently be in the mix and the AL Central isn’t very good. The only surprise team has been Cleveland. In the National League, the Pittsburgh Pirates jumped out as a surprise team (until ESPN botched their season with a media-crazed jinx and ruined any chances of Pittsburgh achieving its first .500 season in 18 years), the New York Mets are actually hanging around the .500 mark, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are somehow only a half-game back of the defending champion Giants in the NL West. The Diamondbacks, Mets and Pirates??? That’s the equivalent of the Lions, Raiders and Browns simultaneously in the playoff mix with five weeks left in the NFL season. But keep your eyes peeled; the Pirates are in the midst of a dreadful 10-game losing streak. The Giants are battling a swoon exacerbated by an unforgiving schedule and getting out of their rut may be all they need to pull away from Arizona. The Phillies are firing on all cylinders. The unpredictable ones may be on the verge of fading into formal, unfortunate obscurity, but that’s not keeping us from watching just to make sure.

3. Tight Races

As mentioned prior, the NL West is a legitimate race and so is the NL Central. Unpredictability has morphed the Central from a 3-team deadlock between the Brewers, Cardinals and Pirates to a 2-team race between just St. Louis and Milwuakee (they start a 3-game set on Tuesday). But what would you rather watch: A single race between the overachieving Tigers and Indians, the same old Yankees/Red Sox battle that culminates in both teams making the postseason regardless, or two bountifully decorated races containing the majesty of AT&T Park, a thrilling youngster named Justin Upton, the fascinating Brew Crew and the renowned Cardinals? Exactly.

4. The Personalities

Marketable baseball players are hard to come by. Unlike the NBA, Major League Baseball has a tough time producing personality figures. It’s a sport that mainly thrives off tradition and ambiance. So when a player like Nyjer Morgan, albeit a non-superstar, portrays polarizing antics, it’s a breath of entertaining fresh air.

Besides Alex Rodriguez, is there a more polarizing player in baseball? Last season as a member of the Washington Nationals, he was dubbed moronic for his antics during a compelling brawl against Florida. This season, he’s vacillated between a likeable, passionate center fielder with actual emotion on the field, and a guy who craves a little too much attention and causes feuds with fans. He made his post-game presence known last week with this comical charade, which was aimlessly hilarious to everyone except his twitter followers. He may have a mixed variety of fans, but that’s what happens when you display a mixed bag of personas. Personally, I love it. When it comes to baseball, confounding displays of emotion are better than no emotion at all in a largely emotionless game. Whenever I start my podcast, T-Plush will be the first professional athlete I pursue as a guest.

However, when talking about personalities in the National League, look no further than the San Francisco Giants. Headlined by a full-bearded closer exhibiting sheer comedy and a long-haired, pot-smoking ace, the Giants feature a washed-up leadoff man, a consistent Panda, an awkward first baseman, a newly-acquired 3-hitter, a silver-haired, 30 year-old catcher, a consistent starting rotation, the best bullpen in baseball, and a bunch of misfits. Top that off with an unwavering fan base inside the most magical park in baseball and you can concurrently distinguish the most beguiling team in the sport. Give me a team with all of those discernible aspects over a purchased crop of robotic talent in Boston or New York any day of the week.

5. Postseason Implications

Although it was only half-filled with All-Stars, the National League won this year’s All-Star game and it may prove to merit much more than the apparently apathy-enriched game itself. The National League earned home-field advantage with that win, and there are three teams that would be the highest of beneficiaries if they do reach the Fall Classic: the Giants, Brewers and Pirates.

The Pirates have the lowest chance of getting there and it is highly doubtful that they will. However, if they manage to sneak in and get hot (because we all know that baseball is all about getting hot at the right time in October), the advantage of a young club playing at home in a raucous atmosphere would be paramount. And I say raucous because, well, it’s virtually unfathomable to envision the Pirates playing in the World Series in the first place. Throwing the “We Believe” Warriors fans in PNC park and dressing them in black and yellow is the closest we can get to visualizing that moment. And what a visual it would be.

The Giants would obviously carry the same advantages they had last year: a euphoric crowd, comfortable ambiance, and the most complete pitching staff from starter to reliever to set-up man to closer. And if they just so happened to get hot at the right time (2010 anyone?), then a repeat would be exceedingly more possible than it seems at the moment. The stretch run endeavor for the Giants is to hold off the Upton-led Diamondbacks, first and foremost. But auspicious prospects do linger.

Possibly the most intriguing team to keep an eye on in the final stretch is the Milwaukee Brewers. They have the hitting to keep up with any American League juggernaut (ninth in the majors in runs scored, seventh in wOBA), and have acquired enough pieces to construct an adequate pitching staff. The only knock on Milwaukee has been its fielding, but those criticisms have all but disappeared now that the team’s fielding percentage is sitting at .982 and its UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, another sabermetric junkie's stat) is at a respectable 6.8. Proof that fielding statistics should be looked at like three point shooting percentage in basketball: the percentage doesn’t necessarily matter if it doesn’t apply to you. Does fielding percentage really matter that much when your players are making routine plays most of the time?

The Brewers are the scariest team coming out of the National League when considering the “The postseason is all about getting hot at the right time” theory. Coalescing Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder (the best 1-2 punch in the majors this year) with stout pitching and some hot role players would be just as frightening as the Red Sox and Phillies are right now. Take that and mix it in with a fanatic Miller Park where the Brewers are leading the majors in home record at 41-15. Throw in the cardiac pitching of Francisco Rodriguez. Now throw in T-Plush. And Bernie Brewer slipping down a plastic yellow slide after every home run.

Sound like enough reason to watch?

True "Machines" in Sports

2011-07-06T10:21:00.000-07:00

As the NFL lockout persists and Major League Baseball’s leisure entertainment week (also known as the All-Star break) draws near, there isn’t much manifesting in the sports world that would strike a fan as ‘compelling’ at the moment. Wimbledon came and went as fast as my twenty-first birthday, Tiger Woods announced he’ll skip the British Open (which came as no surprise), and both Derek Jeter and Albert Pujols were activated from their teams’ respective disabled lists.

Wait… Albert Pujols is back already?

That was the first thought when my Yahoo! Mail page read: “Pujols set to return to Cardinals line-up” on the sports ticker Monday. My second thought was: “I’m seriously beginning to think that Albert Pujols is really a machine.” It can’t just be a nickname. Who returns from a wrist injury a month ahead of schedule? In a sport where minute injuries morph into nagging ones? Without taking the “S” word into consideration, Pujols recovered from a 6-week injury in a mere 15 days plainly because he is one of the freak athletes in sports today. Which got me thinking…

What other “Machines” are roaming the planet today? This couldn’t have happened at a better time, considering the Transformers 3 explosion and its recent $116 million opening weekend. I haven’t seen the movie yet, but I’m guessing it has something to do with Shia LaBeouf saving the world from evil robots with the help of heroic robots. Anyways, here’s a top-ten list of the incumbent “Machines” in sports, taking into account dominance, physical ability, durability, longevity, and pure machine-like performance.

10. LeBron James

Let’s start by getting this guy out of the way. If you haven’t heard of him, he’s best known for intellectual tweets and his cartoon show entitled “The LeBrons”, which I’m sure depicts his life in the utmost accurate fashion. Every young basketball fan can’t wait to watch this show every Saturday morning.

Okay, I’m done with the sarcasm. LeBron is known for a lot of things – most of those things far from commendable – but there’s no denying how dominant he can be on the basketball court. At times. This is why I’m placing him at 10, because he’s proven more than once that his dominance as a sheer athlete won’t translate to every possible circumstance as a basketball player. He displayed so once in game 5 of the 2007 Eastern Conference finals, but never again did so in a time of supreme pressure.

However, his machine-like qualities as a 6-foot-8, 265-pound freight train with both size and speed, mesmerizing durability and stamina, and the ability to finish at the basket unlike nearly any other player in the history of the sport is enough to throw him in the list. And that’s all you need.

9. Dirk Nowitzki

Just read this column, then re-watch the NBA Finals and watch him make nearly every shot when it counted. Watch him hit every free throw. Watch him hit nearly every three pointer. Watch him make every one-legged fade away jumper. Dirk Nowitzki is a shooting machine, and now he’s an NBA champion. He’s probably not as machine-like as LeBron James, but James doesn’t deserve to be ahead of Nowitzki in any type of list at this point.

8. Randy Couture

In a sport where a fighter’s average age is 29.5 years old and its youngest competitors enter the sport around age 20, it’s miraculous that Randy Couture is still fighting – and winning – at age 48. Despite his latest loss (a brutal knockout defeat to Lyoto Machida), “The Natural” still obtains a 19-11 professional record and has won three of his last four bouts. He’s one of the most popular and likeable figures in the UFC and the sport of Mixed Martial Arts, and will probably fight until he’s dragged out of the cage. Unlike Brett Favre, it’s a guarantee that Couture will leave the sport with graciousness and an undeniable ovation of respect. The three-time UFC Heavyweight champion and three-time Light Heavyweight champion is already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame, and will be an everlasting face of the UFC franchise. Randy Couture is the Optimus Prime of sports longevity.

7. Peyton Manning

Last year, I created a term called “Peyton Manning boredom” to describe Georges St. Pierre, who was running through UFC competition with such ease that his indescribable talents were being overlooked. As a matter of fact, he’s still doing that. But that’s what makes Peyton Manning so machine-like. He literally attains the ability to matriculate his team down the field with such ease that it makes a 2-minute, 80-yard drive seem commonplace in the NFL. His commercials are sometimes more entertaining than his play on the field. When the top 100 NFL players of 2011 were recently revealed, it wasn’t a shock that Manning wasn’t number one. But one thing’s for sure: He’s the only machine on that list, and he has 208 consecutive starts under center to back it up.

6. Blake Griffin

Blake Griffin isn’t just a machine, he’s a machine put on this earth by actual robots to dunk on every opponent in his way, which will render a 2-hour dunkathon highlight video by the time his career is over. I don’t know how many dunks Griffin had this past NBA season, but it had to be somewhere between 700 and 800. And they were all incredibly and utterly violent, yet beautiful. He might just win every dunk contest for the next ten years. My foremost description of Blake Griffin can’t be denied: He’s the best pure athlete in the NBA right now. And he’s only 22 years old.

5. Sasha Vujacic

Just kidding. He’s still waiting on the batteries he never received.

4. Cliff Lee

Cliff Lee is like the poker player you can never figure out. To expand on that analogy, he’s like the guy who generates a substantial chip lead in the first few days of the World Series of Poker because he’s so aggressive, except Lee is that aggressive yet picks his spots like Daniel Negreanu. His career playoff record is 7-2 with a 2.13 ERA, a WHIP less than 1 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio at a staggeringly immaculate number of 10 to 1. He’s averaged less than one walk per nine innings in his postseason career. And he’s done it all with a cool and collected, it’s-not-that-big-a-deal charisma. There’s no way he’s human.

3. Albert Pujols

Ten straight years of at least 140 games played, 175 hits, 100 RBI’s, 30 home runs, a .300 batting average, .550 slugging percentage, .400 on base percentage, and .950 OPS. If Albert Pujols attains those averages for another ten years, we're possibly looking at the greatest player in the history of baseball. Put that machine in perspective.

2. Mariano Rivera

I wonder what it feels like to know, without any ounce of doubt in your mind whatsoever, that you have the game won when leading heading into the ninth inning. Yankees fans have felt that experience for the last 16 years.

1. Georges St. Pierre

First, look at his physique. It is physically impossible to look like a superhero without being an actual superhero. Second, watch him fight. He hasn’t come close to losing a UFC fight since Matt Serra upset him in April 2007. He hasn’t even left the octagon with scratches on his face. He’s been annihilating contenders with technique, grace, dominance, and doing so in unprecedented fashion. There are literally no flaws or holes in his fighting approach, and he hasn’t portrayed an inch of vulnerability in eight straight title defenses. The undisputed UFC Welterweight champion is literally expected to win every fight until he faces someone of another weight class, which is highly unlikely. As of right now, Georges St. Pierre is the most dominant athlete in sports because he is the only athlete that will render a collective gasp of utter shock when he fails. If he ever fails.

Not The Last Heat Check

2011-06-21T23:34:00.000-07:00

Although the intrigue is high in Major League Baseball, Wimbledon is at its outset and the UFC is entering its annual summer hype, it’s just so tough to let the NBA season go.

It’s difficult to muster the lockout talks in both the NBA and NFL without playoff basketball games taking precedence over it all. So let’s savor the 2010-11 NBA season one last time with something that could’ve been a running topic all year. Let’s cap it off with a Heat Check.

First, we’ll start with a regular season recap:

The Miami Heat started off the season 9-8, which led to a bump that probably would’ve gone unnoticed on any other team in the history of basketball, which led to the widespread doubts of Erik Spoelstra as the team’s head coach, which led to LeBron James and Spoelstra sitting down and working things out face to face, which led to the Heat winning 21 of its next 22 games which consisted of a convincing win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Christmas day, which led to the praise of Spoelstra, which was followed by a four-game losing streak in January that consisted of a handful of failed crunch-time performances by LeBron James, which was followed by a five-game losing streak in March that consisted of an instance entitled “Crygate”, which led to Spoelstra being doubted again (this time for being so unnecessarily blunt towards the media. Frankly, his demeanor in both the presence of the media and his team seemed either forced or contrived all season), which was followed by a trademark victory over the Lakers in which Dwayne Wade sealed the game by using a screen by James, which led to the Heat losing only three games the rest of the season, which locked them in as the Eastern Conference’s 2-seed.

That whirlwind of events was so intriguing, compelling and fascinating all at the same time that it’s easy to forget how much really transpired in that six-month span. And while this was all going on, every road game for the Miami Heat was virtually a playoff atmosphere and every nationally televised game felt like a playoff telecast. Those games felt like they meant something more than they really did, all because of one basketball player’s journey, his decision, and the manner in which the Heat were conceived.

If you’re a fan of a team it’s one thing. But when the Heat banded, everybody started watching. They were immediately polarizing. They became the villains of the league. Sports fans of every sector started watching this team’s every move no differently than how a scientific experiment is observed. Before the season started, nobody knew how Dwayne Wade and LeBron James would coalesce. When the season began, it seemed as though they were trading roles when they saw fit, handing one the reins when the other was on the bench. Chris Bosh seemed to be the glue guy, keeping the team afloat whenever injuries surfaced.

When chemistry began to manifest and Miami’s floor spacing and ball movement actually became a thing of beauty, the fourth quarter offense was still putrid. It wasn’t until the team's second meeting versus the Lakers on March 10 when Wade and James worked together as a two-man solution, with Wade as the ball handler and James as the screener, that the Heat broke out of its crunch time swoon.

From that point on, the Miami Heat were comparable to a high-octane racecar. LeBron was the engine, Wade was the driver, and Bosh became the pit crew. When the playoffs came around and the Heat rolled through Philadelphia and then the Boston Celtics, that engine was running on high gear and the driver was completely in the zone. Dwayne Wade ‘quietly’ averaged 30 points, 5 assists and 7 rebounds in the Eastern Conference semifinals, but was somewhat overshadowed by LeBron’s three 30-plus point games and spectacular finish in the series clincher, which consisted of James scoring the Heat’s final 10 points in vehement fashion.

When that racecar lined up against the Chicago Bulls, then motored through the Bulls with James at the helm, it seemed as though the Heat were primed for a championship. The driver was no longer in the zone (19 points, 2 assists and 6 rebounds were Wade’s averages in that series), but the pit crew was just fine and the engine was running so well that Derrick Cope could’ve won the Daytona 500 behind it. (Although that really did happen. Somehow.)

Then the Finals happened, and all the Heat left us with were question marks.
What happened to LeBron in game 4? Was Wade hurt? Why did Bosh’s syndrome take over his body when James Harden so easily shook off the same sickness? Why did he make his best Pau Gasol impersonation by taking ‘soft’ to another level, and then exacerbate it by breaking down in tears after the game? Why was he the only Miami player to depict true sorrow after the loss? When will LeBron learn how to deal with the media and when did this happen? When will he stop tweeting his way into controversy? How can he be considered the best player in the NBA when he obviously can’t balance a team’s Heart and Hustle, has never even come close to tapping out his ambition and conveys no discernible intangibles (on or off the court) in the utmost magnified situations? Why is Wade, the poised driver, expediting media swirls with a cough and media retaliation? Why does Wade seem to get a free pass for saying things as LeBron follows him around like his little brother? Does anyone remember the “The world is better now that the Heat is losing” quote?

Well, the Heat lost and the world is the same. The basketball world is what’s better. And when Pat Riley spoke with the media yesterday, the 2011-12 Heat intrigue already started up. Riley said emphatically that he will not coach again, but he instantly displayed an aura that was believable in yesterday’s press conference, unlike anything Erik Spoelstra has portrayed with his disposition. Spoelstra did do a fine job while in the toughest coaching position in sports this season, and his coaching style is what made the pre-Big-3 Heat a playoff team with Wade, Udonis Haslem and a bunch of short-term contracts. However, making the jump from coaching a team in development to coaching a team in instantaneous title contention is a work in progress for him. He never completely figured it out, which rendered detrimental when LeBron James magically morphed from an unstoppable motor with nitrous engaged to a sudden blown engine.

Now this team has become even more fascinating. A team that made it to the Finals exuded more flaws than any Finals team in history. It was never a team in complete control. It was never LeBron’s team. It was never a team securely in the hands of Dwayne Wade. The Heat couldn’t even sustain an identity with both Wade and James as its catalysts simultaneously. There was no way Spoelstra was ever going to give every player on the Miami roster something to connect with. And to top it all off, Wade and the rest of the ‘Big 3’ couldn’t manage to galvanize the team against the masses of hatred. Currently, Pat Riley seems to be the only variable capable of mending Miami’s identity issues, but nothing has entailed his return to coaching.
As if there wasn't enough pressure the Miami Heat this year, that pressure will inevitably double next year. After reaching the Finals once already, expectations will literally be championship-or-bust. If LeBron James' ultimate career goal is to keep us watching year after year, he's sure doing a good job of it so far.

The Miami Heat generated the most transfixing season saga a sports fan could possibly witness this season, and, barring a lockout, we get to do it all over again next year.

The Heart of a Lion... The Heart of a Champion

2011-06-13T21:11:00.000-07:00

A “champion” can obviously be defined in simple terms. In sports, the word becomes a little tougher to discern. The qualities of a championship team differ from sport to sport and even from year to year. But when a season concludes the way the NBA did on Sunday – when the qualities of a championship basketball team illuminated and the facets of a villainous powerhouse crumbled in shambles – we were all reminded of what distinguishes a championship team from the rest. In the most unambiguous fashion, the Dallas Mavericks portrayed what a championship basketball team is supposed to look like.
The first component of that look begins with situation and opportunity. Before the 2011 Finals between the Mavericks and Miami Heat began, both Dirk Nowitzki of Dallas and LeBron James of Miami had placed themselves in pristine situations to vault not only their legacies as individuals, but their organizations as well. Now that the Mavericks have won a championship behind their prized German MVP, they have now fulfilled their roles as the cooperative protagonist to Miami’s mainstream antagonism in this fairy tale story known as the NBA. Take it however you want, but that storybook ending will be the resonating storyline when the 2011 season is looked back upon years from now.

Remember when Heart and Hustle was the premier theme of the Western Conference finals? Well, it had a little something to do with the NBA Finals as well. As said before, heart is what’s left when the ambition is tapped out. Dirk Nowitzki had all the ambition in the world throughout the entirety of his career. He was part of one of the most likeable tandems in NBA history at the outset of his career alongside Steve Nash, until Nash was let go and Dirk was left with his own team. He exited in furious anger when his 2006 team relinquished a 2-0 series lead to Miami in that year’s Finals. He carried his ambition into an MVP season the year following, as he posted lesser numbers than the previous two seasons but still managed 24 points and nine rebounds a game on 50% shooting and 42% three point shooting. That same season, the Mavericks won 67 games and were poised to win a championship. That is, until they faced the Golden State Warriors and became victims of the greatest first round upset in the history of the NBA playoffs.

Even after all the individual accolades and all the hard work, Nowitzki still felt like he had to prove himself. He still had the ambition. He still felt the sting of 2006 and 2007. He still felt like he had to improve as a basketball player, even after nine years of experience and a track record that guaranteed him a spot as a top-35 all-time player. Looking at it retroactively, I can say that credibly without having to ask him or be in position to ask one of his sources because I’ve seen it with my own eyes as a fan. There's no way Stephen Jackson could successfully guard him the way he did when my Warriors made history. Dirk Nowitzki is a better basketball player in 2011 than he was in 2007 when he was an unbelievable talent. Now, he’s a champion because his ambition is finally tapped out. His Heart defined the Dallas Mavericks; and his teammates, coach and organization followed suit. Owner Mark Cuban slid under the radar and let Dirk lead the way. Jason Terry stood alongside him as his fearless accomplice. Shawn Marion fit in seamlessly as a vital cog in the unproven core. Jason Kidd used his veteran presence to make sure the team didn’t deviate from its identity.

And that's the key word: Identity. Dirk Nowitzki gave the Mavericks an identity that every one of his teammates believed in. They were all in a championship run for the same exact purpose. None had won a ring prior, and each could make a connection with the heart Nowitzki emitted with his play. They balanced Heart and Hustle most effectively and retained the major quality in terms of basketball chemistry and success: A championship identity.
Conversely, the Miami Heat did nothing of the sort. In the Eastern Conference playoffs, they showed passion and togetherness for a purpose. They vanquished the Boston Celtics with admirable vehemence (despite the over-decorated celebration), and stepped on the collective throats of the Chicago Bulls behind LeBron James. Once the Finals came around, what was the Miami Heat’s identity? What was the one thing that every player in the rotation could connect with? There was nothing. We didn’t know if it was LeBron’s team, Wade’s team, a combination of both, or even a team collectively battling against the masses of hatred. LeBron James was non-existent when his team needed him most, staying passive even after game 3, when it seemed as though he was keeping Dwayne Wade and the rest of his team involved before an inevitable breakout. Set-up games, if you will.

But it didn’t happen. LeBron will now be remembered for game 5 of the 2010 Eastern Conference semifinals and game 4 of the 2011 NBA Finals until a championship nullifies those demons. There’s absolutely no middle ground here, so those that hate him are vindicated, and those who felt his change of scenery would benefit him as a player are left curious and disappointed. The most we can say about LeBron James at this point is that he’s the second-most compelling basketball player ever, and unequivocally the most polarizing. His talents are that of a freakish superstar, but his play is that of an equal counterpart and even a front-running follower to some degree. It seemed as though he wanted to leave Cleveland to alter some personal aspects with a fresh ambiance, when, in fact, he went to Miami to be the same guy he always has been without the weight of the world on his shoulders. So much for that.

James himself said the Miami Heat came together by influence of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and the Boston Celtics. When that big three and that Celtics team came together in 2007, they were immediately cognizant of their team identity. It was centered around Garnett’s passion and warrior-like mentality. Each player had a connection with that mindset because they had all endured zealous careers that didn’t consist of a title. Head coach Doc Rivers augmented a team-first philosophy to the identity, and the 2008 champion Boston Celtics team became one of the most memorable teams I’ve ever watched. There’s absolutely no correlation between that team and the team currently constructed in Miami. The only identity they obtain is one of the villain, which suits the Heat best because of what they’ve done off the court, but nothing on the court gave the Heat a clear identity in 2011.

So forget Dirk Nowitzki’s discernible talents. Forget his pure jump shot, his mesmerizing high post game, his enhanced low post game, his unstoppable fall-away jumper, his beautiful three point shot and his ability to will his team to victory in the fourth quarter.
As Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle said of Nowitzki subsequent Sunday’s title-clinching game, he obtains and portrays “the heart of a lion.” What manifested before my eyes as a fan this postseason and through Dallas’ championship run is why I watch basketball in May and June. It displayed the passion necessary in order to succeed. It conveyed what it means to have a true championship identity. It rejuvenated my stern belief in karma. It reminded me why there’s a right and wrong way to do things. It reminded me of why I love to watch guys like Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry succeed. It reminded me of why those attributes of passion, grit, will, emotion, ambition and heart influence myself personally. It reminded me of why I’m a ridiculous fanatic.

It reminded me of why I Love This Game.

Situationally Speaking...

2011-05-30T18:33:00.000-07:00

“Legacy” has become an overused term within the realm of mainstream media in the NBA. The word is brought up so often that reporters are beginning to ask superstars such as LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki how this season and these playoffs are affecting their careers. What are they expected to say? Are James and Nowitzki really thinking about their legacies as much as fans do as they vie for their first-ever NBA championships?

Legacies are meant to be talked about, written about, and placed within historical context. It’s something that’s meant to be disconnected from the superstar – an indirect connection between fan and athlete. The athlete is providing the entertainment; he shouldn’t have to draw conclusions on the outcome or become a part of our fanatical conversations.

Legacy impact is something I like to elaborate on about once a year, usually once the NBA season has concluded. Last year it was LeBron James, the season before it was Kobe Bryant. And just like any other fan, I wonder how those legacies will ultimately fit in the NBA history books. It may be an intriguing topic as we watch a superstar rise or fade, but never should conclusions be drawn. That’s the beauty of sports: We can talk about what we think is going to happen, or what we think a certain outcome means for a specific team or player, but we never really know until the dust settles and an actual result is presented.

What we can safely say about the 2011 NBA Finals is that the series will presumably have some sort of affect on the legacies of both LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki. Both players are en route to re-transcending their images because of the situations they’ve found themselves in.

By now, Nowitzki and James’ careers have been highlighted so many times that it’s making us wonder whether or not the Finals are between the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat or Dirk Nowitzki and LeBron James. We know about The Decision. We know what LeBron has endured up to this point. We’ve heard “Dirk is the greatest European player in the history of the NBA and possibly the most underrated player in the history of the NBA” so many times that it’s unfortunately making some of us groan in annoyance. We know about the 2006 collapse the last time these two teams faced in the Finals. We know how infuriated Mark Cuban was during that series, as Dwayne Wade shot 78 free throws in the final 4 games. We know about LeBron and Dirk’s ring-less careers of not just failure, but coming up short when it matters most.

However, what you might not know is this: Both players have found themselves in pristine title contending situations. Just as with every great player’s legacy, it’s all about being in the right situation in the right place at the right time. Some players became victims of the eras they played in (Charles Barkley, Karl Malone), some thrived in auspicious times (Wilt Chamberlain, Elgin Baylor), and some became the face of an era by transcending the game (Larry Bird, Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan). Nowitzki and James are finding greatness in an era where they each obtain an opportunity to leave an imprint.

For Dirk Nowitzki, his previously undermined career is now taking a leap because of the NBA’s popularity levels. The NBA is now more renowned than it ever has been, with more eyes drawn to the spectacle of premier talent and unprecedented drama than most would even realize. Not even Bird, Magic or Air Jordan held the capacity to bring this much attention to the sport in their days of glory.

Unquestionably, Nowitzki has raised his game to another level this postseason. He hasn’t been camping at the three point line, has been as efficient as possible in every shooting category (52% shooting from the field and from three, 93% at the line), and has been making a living with his back to the basket in the mid-range game. The spots on the floor where he makes a living and the skill set he exudes are purely incomparable to any other player in the history of the game.

Throughout his career, he’s only faced two problems: He’s a foreign player from Germany, and he’s had an admirably consistent career that never truly exploded at an apex. He won NBA MVP in the 2006-07 season, but it was virtually looked at as a resuscitation award, considering the breakdown the season prior. Nowitzki could never find a way to be thrown in the upper echelon with the likes of Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James in that time period. American fans couldn’t connect with a foreign superstar whose team continued to fail in the postseason.

Now, Nowitzki is impossible to overlook. He was in the MVP conversation all season, was the epicenter of a Dallas sweep over the two-time defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers in the conference semifinals, and subsequently put the Mavericks on his back all the way to the Finals. A collection of performances have illuminated since then, including game 1 of the Western Conference Finals versus the Oklahoma City Thunder (12-15 from the field, 24-24 from the free throw line, an overall immaculate performance of efficiency that will forever be engrained within the NBA playoffs history books), game 3 of the same series (was quiet all night, then appeared and hit crucial shots in the fourth quarter), then game 4 (which was more of an epic breakdown by Oklahoma City, as they relinquished a 15-point lead with 5:04 remaining in the contest. Dirk hit a myriad of difficult shots in a 40-point performance and a Dallas series-clincher), and game 5 (hit the go-ahead three-pointer with 1:14 remaining and the Mavericks never looked back).

He’s playing the best basketball of his career at age 32 and the NBA’s largest audience is witnessing it all. I guess you could consider this his explosion.

As for LeBron James, he was the major force behind vaulting the NBA to where it is at the moment because of his decision to join the Heat. And now that he’s reached the NBA’s grandest stage with an NBA Finals MVP flanking him in Dwayne Wade, James finds himself in the most comfortable situation of his career.

Not only is James in a more comfortable ambiance in Miami than what he experienced in last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals in Cleveland, but he's surrounded by personnel that – despite what most thought when analyzing the Miami Heat when they initially united – suits James most perfectly.

The Miami Heat have perfected the role of a high performing Ferrari. Once James found his role as the engine and Wade found his spot as the control man, everything started running on full cylinders. LeBron James is an all-purpose basketball player that takes risks late in games that seem uncalculated at times. When he gets a little out of hand, Wade slows the game down as the smooth operator. They may have seemed like similar basketball players on separate teams, but they differ so much in approach and demeanor that they complement each other as well as any tandem in basketball history.

LeBron James now carries the freedom he’s always wanted to attain without the daunting weight on his shoulders. At the end of games, he takes tough shots with hands in his face, drives to the basket through multiple defenders, and pulls up unexpected threes in crunch time. Shots that used to be confounding during his struggles as a closer are now surfacing as electrifying moments.

It started in this year’s Eastern Conference semifinals against the Boston Celtics, when James scored 35 points and ripped off Miami’s final 10 points in game 5 as he punched the team’s ticket to the conference finals. It was his most illustrious playoff performance since game 5 of the 2007 Eastern Conference finals. Since then, he’s been playing magnificent basketball, highlighted by his game 2 performance in the Eastern Conference finals versus the Chicago Bulls (hit a huge three with over four minutes remaining, then another at the right elbow after catching Rose on a pump fake with just over three minutes remaining. He then made the game-clinching shot after retrieving a rebound off his own miss and laying it in. This game could also prove to be the turning point of Miami’s postseason, as Miami stole its first game in Chicago and head coach Erik Spoelstra found his “big lineup” of Wade, James, Mike Miller, Chris Bosh and the resurgent Udonis Haslem); game 3 of the same series when he recorded 10 assists and played with pure game-controlling poise; then game 4 (played immaculate defense on Rose in every one-on-one situation and shut down the league MVP like no player in the league has proven to do thus far. He also comfortably put the game out of reach with a powerful drive to the left side of the basket as he connected on a lefty lay-in over Joakim Noah. To top it off, he hit the game-closing shot at the left elbow); and lastly in game 5 (along with Wade, led a come-from-behind surge to seize the series. Following Wade’s four-point play with less than a minute left, James immediately came off a Haslem screen for a pure three to tie the game at 79 apiece. To cap it off, he hit a dazzling step-back jumper after deflecting a Derrick Rose pass on the other end. He closed the game out with another fantastic defensive performance on Rose).

Both LeBron James and Dirk Nowitzki are concurrently performing at their highest levels as they enter the biggest stages of their respective careers. The 2011 NBA Finals is set to be the most grandiose stage in NBA history. With these two superstars on opposing sides, considering the situations they’re in, how does this year’s Finals not affect their legacies?

James will be looked at as the man who changed the NBA and simultaneously won a championship if the Heat win, and Nowitzki will be looked at as the man who vanquished the villains in the midst of it all if the Mavericks win. We’ll be witnessing two of the top-25, if not top-20 or even top-15 greatest players in NBA history guide their teams in search of their first NBA championships. They’ll both be vying to re-transcend their careers – this time as winners. Considering the situation, the eventual champion may have the potential to be something much more than that.

Old Fashioned Heart and Hustle

2011-05-19T10:39:00.000-07:00

As if the theatrics behind the veil of Heat vs. Bulls wasn’t enough, the excitement looming over this year’s Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks is seemingly enough to spark ample intrigue.

At the surface, the outcome of Tuesday’s game 1 didn’t indicate anything more compelling than a convincing 121-112 Dallas win, and a 48-point, 24 free-throw performance of flawless efficiency by Dirk Nowitzki. It was enough to entrance someone at first, but then slowly steered into what I call “Peyton Manning boredom.” Nowitzki was so good that he made the casual viewer think, “Okay, he’s getting these points a little too easy. Twelve for fifteen? Twenty-four straight free throws without a miss? Let’s watch something else.”

But what game 1 did provide was a sample of the heart and hustle this series will ultimately display. Not one game will feature a second half lay-down reminiscent of what the Lakers put forth in game 4 of the Western Conference semifinals. Both teams are too talented; too consumed by the positions of aspiration they’ve found themselves in. Dallas and Oklahoma City differ in many ways – in both the talents they exhibit and schemes they utilize – but both are vying to reach the same goal by using equivalent frames of mind.

Hustle can’t be mentioned without mentioning one guy: Jose Juan Barea. As recently as November, Barea looked like a random firecracker on the court, bursting every which way without any real accomplishment. Now, he’s a vital cog in the Dallas rotation, leaving no downtime for opponents once Dirk Nowitzki takes his breather and the benches come into play. He hasn’t been noticeably productive (averaging 9 points and 3.5 assists this postseason), but his presence alone has aided the Mavericks in maintaining the furious ball movement they thrive on. Moreover, his defensive liability is less of an issue when he scores over 20 points a game, as he did in game 4 versus the Lakers (22), and game 1 against the Thunder (21) Tuesday night.

Shawn Marion and Jason Terry both fall into Dallas’ hustle category, but Terry may be the only player that falls into the heart class as well. We’ll get to that later. Terry has been a frightening force from beyond the arc, shooting a gaudy 50% from three this postseason and 52% from the field. In modest terms, he’s a very dangerous player. His playoff-tying record of nine three-pointers in a game is enough to scare opposing fans just as much as Dirk Nowitzki can.

Marion is playing well as a filler guy as well, connecting on second chance opportunities and supporting the transition offense. He’s almost as important as Serge Ibaka is to the hustle of the Thunder, who did a good job of attempting (“attempting” being the key word here) to contain Nowitzki in Tuesday’s game 1. His athleticism in the frontcourt, rebounding ability, and continuous motor fit in seamlessly with the overall team approach. It’s just uncertain if he’s completely ready for a championship push this season. All we know is that he’ll eventually get there.

The other uncertainties lie within the true X-factors of the Oklahoma City Thunder. “X-factor” is a word that gets used so painfully often that Sportscenter analysts are starting to exclaim: “I know this isn’t going to surprise anyone, but I’m gonna say it’s Derrick Rose,” and “I know he’s the team’s best player, but I think Kevin Durant is this game’s X-factor.” Maybe we’ll have to go back and redefine the term again, but I remember the tag simply being “Any guy who’s not considered the team's best player who has the ability to swing the game in either direction based on his performance.” For the Thunder, it’s both James Harden and Russell Westbrook.

For whatever reason, Chris Bosh, Pau Gasol and Harden all attain a strange syndrome that doesn’t completely make sense. As soon as the ball is tipped and one of these players starts working within the offense, you know whether or not his head is in the game. The problem is, the condition is very unpredictable, and can sometimes be very detrimental to a team’s health. Neither of these players have been able to shake it yet. Harden is the only one who’s shown promise. Throughout the regular season, it seemed as though the disease had taken over his entire body. He got open for a plethora of spot-up threes, but was a very inconsistent connector. Now, he’s gone back to his college roots and is displaying aggressiveness both in transition and most admirably in the halfcourt game. He’s used that hustle to generate the necessary confidence to hit Jason Terry-like threes. He’s scored double-digits in six of the Thunder’s eight wins this postseason. If that’s not an X-Factor, I don’t know what is.

The other Oklahoma City X-factor is Russell Westbrook. And he does count as an X-factor because he’s not the best player on his team, although he acts like he is at times. Now, “acting” like he’s the alpha dog and “thinking” he’s the alpha dog are two completely different things. We just don’t know which one accurately describes his state of mind. The biggest problem with Westbrook is that he’s only 22 years old. He’s still trying to figure himself out as an NBA player and so happens to be the starting point guard for a team concurrently contending for a title. If he were on the Cavaliers, he’d have no problem figuring out that he’s the team’s number one guy. Building the foundation of a championship team crucially depends on every player on that team knowing his role.

It’s easy to say that Kevin Durant is Oklahoma City’s alpha dog. But Westbrook is not only stuck between positions in this game of role play, but stuck between positions of heart and hustle. He shows copious passion when on the court, but it’s a product of great ambition.

Kevin Durant is beyond his years. He’s past the point of ambition and at a place where he’s nearly close enough to reach out and grasp success. He doesn’t have anything else to prove on the court, while Westbrook’s ambitions say otherwise. That’s the difference between heart and hustle.

Heart is used a lot to describe people with high ambition. But what’s left when you’ve proven all you can do and aspiration fades? True heart is all that’s left when hustle has been tapped out.

That’s why every one of Kevin Durant’s 40 points in game 1 of the Western Conference Finals were believable comeback points. It’s why Dirk Nowitzki has been the best player in this year’s playoffs so far and people started asking, “Does he receive enough credit for how great he really is?” It’s why Jason Terry is so dangerous at this point in his career, balancing attributes of heart and hustle as the Mavericks’ second banana. Jason Kidd is so far past hustle that he has just enough heart left to guide his team as the floor general.

Both the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder display these attributes of heart and hustle; the team that balances them most successfully will make an appearance in this year’s Finals. But this is for certain: Aside from the match-up problems that will keep Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki at the top of the box score in each game this series, both will unequivocally lead their teams by the basis of what makes them two of the league’s best players. It’s what makes Nowitzki a top-25 all-time player (with the potential for something more if championships come into play). It’s what makes Durant the best scorer we’ve ever seen at the age of 22 (and possibly a future Hall-of-Famer, barring injury). And it’s what assembles a championship-caliber team around both of them.

Heart.

Old Fashioned Good vs. Evil

2011-05-16T23:33:00.000-07:00

Amidst the product the NBA has given us in its 2010-11 season, cognizance of its theatrics renders something much more beguiling.

Facets of the regular season were entrancing in their own right, inducing magnification over every Blake Griffin dunk, every Kevin Love rebound, every Miami Heat game since October, every Lakers winning and losing streak, every word Carmelo Anthony said and every ‘hint’ Carmelo Anthony gave, every trade deadline move, every Derrick Rose performance, and every other performance by a young player/team that gave us a taste of the uniquely promising future of basketball. Growing up, the NBA regular season meant less to me than any other regular season of any major sport. I enjoyed the 2010-11 season more than any other regular season I’ve ever watched, regardless of sport.

But it wasn’t solely because of the aforementioned aspects. It was much more than that. The regular season prepped us for an already-enthralling postseason just two rounds in, and an organization containing not just its greatest crop of young talent in history – but also a compelling set of dramas capable of vaulting the NBA toward unparalleled popularity levels.

Of any other sports organization, the NBA’s history books somehow beautifully fall into place. Eras are able to be mapped out perfectly, dynasties are found among the decades, and Hall-of-Famers can be spotted flawlessly within. Most of all, fan reaction and response top off the recollection of those eras. They allow those periods of time to reverberate and banter to perpetuate even years later.

The dramas within the game of basketball are slowly becoming the epicenter of what the upcoming era has to offer, and the after-effects of game 1 of this year’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls displayed so with eye-opening transparency on Sunday. This series isn’t just handing us a preview of this decade’s fresh cream-of-the-crop squads, but a preview of a classic battle between good and evil – one of the many underlying storylines that will perpetuate in banter years from now.

When LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and the Miami Heat sauntered over the blood-red painted areas of the United Center – emblazoned in villainous black as they strutted in the presence of an unforgiving scene so contradictory of the one that surrounded them when a career-long quest to vanquish the Boston Celtics was finalized – the stage was set for a tale comparable to ones in old storybooks.
The Chicago Bulls came in as the team that had operated its season the ‘right way,’ portraying a defensive scheme that wins championships and a passion led by the season’s MVP (Rose) and coach of the year (Tom Thibodeau).

The Heat came in as the unconventionally constructed, superstar-oriented, ego-flaunting group with two of the league’s three best players at its forefront. They hadn’t reached their current destination by doing things the ‘right way.’ No way anything the great Michael Jordan would contradict can be seen as ‘right’ in the eyes of a Bulls fan, or any other devoted NBA fan for that matter. James, Wade and Chris Bosh came together in the wake of a convenient opening in team salary and a publicly appalling Decision. To find themselves at this point in the postseason was to find themselves brandished with an inevitable ‘villain’ stamp.

In turn, the hatred was palpable. Once James committed his second foul in the first quarter, boos rained down on him until he took his seat on the bench. The same ambiance was apparent in Boston the series prior, but never enough to seemingly affect the Heat. The Celtics were in their twilight while the Bulls are entering their limelight (just in case you wanted an example of flawlessly mapping out eras), which was far from ominous in Chicago’s convincing 103-82 win.

Everything about Chicago’s quick 1-0 series lead marked hero status. Derrick Rose stood in front of his teammates and apologized for the mistakes he was making in the first half and subsequently led his team with an incendiary 28 points in MVP fashion. Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer anchored the front line with the distinctly passionate bravados they both express. Luol Deng played fantastically on both sides of the floor and held LeBron James to only 15 points on 5-15 shooting while Deng put up 21 points and netted four three-pointers himself. Taj Gibson sent home two ferocious dunks that galvanized the team so enthusiastically that the admirable camaraderie of the 2008 Celtics came to mind.

To top it off, it was all happening against the Miami Heat. The team that celebrated as if it won the title the series prior found themselves in a rut on Sunday. They had no answer for Rose, allowing Boozer and multiple outside shooters to find openings in their sweet spots when help was needed for Mike Bibby or Mario Chalmers. Wade expended most of his energy on the defensive side when he was assigned to Rose, resulting in only 18 points on his own end. Bosh was allowed to do whatever he wanted as the Bulls suffocated Wade and James and kept them off the free throw line. So much that got Miami through Boston was taken away in Chicago. Just like the villain in every other old tale, the protagonist exploited weakness just when it seemed as though the antagonist depicted true invincibility.

Then again, the villain always has something up his sleeve.

As head coach Erik Spoelstra said following the loss, Miami “took one in the chin” Sunday night. The Bulls better be hoping they didn’t awaken the beast. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are still the most daunting duo since Kobe and Shaq, and may eventually become the most titillating tandem since Jordan and Pippen. It’s hard to believe both superstars will generate outputs of less than 20 points a piece in game 2, considering the 291 combined points they scored in five games in the conference semifinals. Wade had one of the best playoff series’ of his career (30 points per game, 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 53% shooting), and LeBron James played one of the best playoff games of his career in the series clincher (scored the team’s final 10 points of regulation with two clutch threes and two scintillating dunks, followed by a decorated celebration). Expecting Chicago to continually shut them down as they did in game 1 would be a ludicrous proposition. It doesn’t sound fair, but then again, does the villain ever play fair?

Now it’s time for the Bulls to combat the best shot they’ll get all series from the Heat on the road. Game 2 is primed to possibly be the best game of the series on Wednesday. Following the series and the season, the next half-dozen years are set up for the Bulls and Heat to face off in playoff series’ just like this one. One that isn’t just headlined by a soft-spoken, overly ambitious man in red and two overwhelming vanguards in black, but by an old fashioned tale of good versus evil.

Conference Championship Preview: Too Good To Be True?

2011-01-20T20:04:00.000-08:00

We’re going to approach this playoff preview a little differently. At this point, considering the circumstances of this specific NFL season and the match-ups we’ve been presented with this week, everything is based on feel. Instincts and big-picture perspectives are the optimal ways of dissecting a conference championship slate full of the same parity we witnessed all season. Moreover, the teams playing one another have already faced this season; and, in Green Bay and Chicago’s case, twice over. Not much should fool us, and no stat will sway us. This is where teams parlay their championship qualities into championship results. This is where we sift through what we can ultimately trust, and what we truly can’t.

This is where we build on a 6-2 playoff record against the spread. (Picks against spread in parenthesis.)

Sunday, Jan. 23rd, 2011- 3:00 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

What not to trust: Simple. Jay Cutler. When Cutler plays like a poor man’s Brett Favre, his teams lose. When he plays like a top-tier NFL QB, his teams win. The Bears have the pieces offensively (a good blend of downfield receiver threats and possession guys, a reliable running back, a sure-handed tight end) to accommodate Cutler. The only problem is in his offensive line, which is probably the worst possible weakness to have surrounding him. If the Packers bring pressure with their 3-4 zone scheme and find ways to get to Cutler, he’ll do the inevitable and hand Aaron Rodgers opportunities. He essentially hasn’t played in a legitimate playoff game yet (8-9 Seattle doesn’t really count), so this will be his first big test. A poor man’s Brett Favre in his first ever playoff game, which also doubles as the most legendary rivalry game in NFL history, against the NFL’s current hottest team? Not so trustworthy.

What to trust: Simple. Aaron Rodgers. He’s the best quarterback left in the playoffs right now, and inched his way one step closer to the tier-one elite quarterback echelon with Saturday night’s 31-36, 366-yard, three passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown performance in Atlanta against the one-seeded Falcons. He’s simply playing better than any other quarterback in the NFL would be right now, even if the Patriots, Colts and Saints were still playing. He plays with absolutely no fear, supreme confidence and composure, flawless accuracy, an intelligent knack of pocket elusion, and a swagger-coated killer instinct. When John Abraham got to Rodgers early in the third quarter last Saturday night (1 of only 2 sacks surrendered by the Green Bay offensive line), he felt the urge to imitate Rodgers’ signature taunt of displaying his heavyweight title belt. As the cameras shot back to Rodgers, it was evident that he caught a glimpse of Abraham’s charade. Ten plays later, Rodgers had marched his team inside the Atlanta 10-yard line. On the final play of the drive, he slipped out of the pocket, raised a pump fake towards the endzone, and proceeded to will himself over the goal line for a self-served touchdown. Once the referees broke their huddle and confirmed the touchdown, Rodgers looked up towards the Atlanta crowd, pointed directly at his imaginary belt, and established that he was the only being worthy of flaunting the gold around his waist. That’s a quarterback teammates could bet their personal lives on, not to mention lead them to a victory.

The Pick: Green Bay 30, Chicago 21 (Packers -3.5)

Sunday, Jan. 23rd, 2011- 6:30 PM ET
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers

What not to trust: Pittsburgh’s offensive line. It’s been shaky all season and absolutely putrid in spurts. Rashard Mendenhall has perfected his role as the runner with the most lateral quickness in the NFL because of it, and Ben Roethlisberger has maneuvered his way out of the pocket more than ever before. At this point in the season, games are predominantly won in the trenches, and The Championship Philosophy is most prevalent. Pittsburgh allowed the eighth-most sacks this season (Chicago allowed the most, which is another aspect to not attain trust in), and was only eighteenth in yards per rushing attempt. Against a Jets team that loves to pressure the quarterback and thrives when teams succumb to their style by grinding games out with long drives, the Steelers may be in more trouble than they're ready for. Lack of deep coverage skills by the Jets would’ve been key in this game if it weren’t for their stellar performance against Tom Brady last week, so the battle in the trenches will be key. A battle in which the Steelers are woefully outmatched.
What to trust: The coaching. The defense. The belief. The passion. The us-against-the-world-mentality. The Championship Philosophy. The New York Jets.

The Pick: New York 23, Pittsburgh 20 (Jets +3.5)

What you may not know about these games is that their ramifications go far beyond a Super Bowl bid. Before this season, we laid out a handful of potential new “Elite 5” members, which would represent the five teams at the forefront of the upcoming decade. We singled out some members from the previous decade, identified two possible sleepers, were mindful of the contenders, and then formed a new “Elite 5” constituency. Those members were chosen based on four simple qualities: Solid Current Roster, Foundation of the Organization, Potential, and Elite Qualities. Why is this well-calculated, yet premature assembly of forthcoming vanguards significant? Because two of the teams are featured this weekend and could very likely face one another in Super Bowl XLV: The Green Bay Packers and New York Jets.

Preceding the season, I made this Super Bowl prediction via twitter. There’s no turning back now. I felt the “Elite 5” would emerge early, and it’s already here. The stars are aligning, and the game itself would unequivocally draw the most attention and compel the most fans.

For the Packers, their road has been somewhat topsy-turvy, yet the outcome has ultimately matched the expectations. Despite injury, Green Bay is the hottest team in the NFL with the hottest quarterback. It wasn’t an easy road, however, losing games early in the season to Washington and Miami, then hitting another skid late in the season against Detroit and New England without Aaron Rodgers. But they won two critical games to finish the season and make the playoffs, and the defense perpetually progressed as the season moved forward, using a patented, athletic zone scheme that caters to players such as Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews. Matthews has now become the one player on the defensive side of the ball (besides Troy Polamalu) that is just as fun to watch singularly as the play itself. He’s always on high gear, whether he’s bull-rushing an offensive tackle (his greatest strength), spinning inside off his blocker, pursuing the quarterback at full-speed off a stunt, dropping back in coverage, or chasing down a ball carrier (with the ability to cause a turnover). He’s the full package playing outside linebacker in a 3-4 defensive scheme. He’s the anchor that supports other players such as AJ Hawk and Desmond Bishop. He’s the heart and soul of a defense that includes Charles Woodson and B.J. Raji, and consistently improving entities such as Cullen Jenkins and Tramon Williams. And now, the Packers obtain the elite defense they seemed to have on paper before the season started. We already know what the offense portrays (see above), but the defense is what has secured the Packers as a legitimate “Elite 5” member and Super Bowl contender. With leaders like Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews on opposite sides of the ball, this already talented team is a nearly unstoppable machine.

For the Jets, their road has been somewhat unconventional. It started before the season in the eyes of fans with a thrilling season of “Hard Knocks” on HBO, which showed all of us the passion of Rex Ryan, the will of LaDanian Tomlinson, the wit and youthful humor of Mark Sanchez, the continuity of the coaching staff, and the overall team commitment to strive for something special. It was there. You could feel an eerie sense of high expectations for themselves, as well as one another, without any forms of tension or edginess. New York operated its season by winning a multitude of close games, but found ways to win regardless. It may not have looked flashy or dominant, but it’s a favorable way to prepare for playoff football. Without those games, Mark Sanchez couldn’t be believed in, the final minute of the Wild Card round versus the Colts would have been a daunting task, and the defense wouldn’t have vastly improved despite injures in the deep secondary. Aside from portraying the utmost aspects of The Championship Philosophy, the Jets now attain intangible qualities that other teams couldn’t have possibly come close to generating this season. Bart Scott said he would die for his coach if it came down to it (try to find another coach who any NFL player would say that about with as much raw conviction); Mark Sanchez is making game-clinching throws with absolute poise; LaDanian Tomlinson is playing with more fire than he ever has in his career; Shonn Greene is making his annual playoff appearance; Braylon Edwards isn’t dropping a single pass; Santonio Holmes is doing what he always has in key playmaking moments; Darrelle Revis is reminding us that his island is still desolate and thou shalt be cursed if one steps on the sands belonging to the greatest cornerback in the NFL; Antonio Cromartie is making game-changing plays; lesser names such as Eric Smith are making themselves resoundingly known, and the list goes on and on and on. The Jets eventually took on the highest level of their persona last week after defeating the Patriots, which is brash cockiness and the mentality to not just go out and win, but make a statement in the process. It’s “Us Against the World,” yet they’re concurrently one of the best teams in the NFL. Somehow the Jets find themselves in an auspicious position that no team in the league could possibly obtain a comparable grasp of. That position is one that stands alone within the confines of the elite.
Is it too good to be true? A preseason Super Bowl XLV prediction coming to life? Two predicted “Elite 5” members materializing at its conception? Two 6-seeded playoff teams in the Super Bowl for the first time in NFL history? This is for all you non-believers.

Can't wait.

NFL Playoff Preview: All About the Divisional Round

2011-01-14T09:36:00.000-08:00

How ironic is it that two of the most prominent AFC divisional rivalries are being featured in the “Divisional” round? The 2010-11 NFL season has been one of parity, big stages and tight races. Thus far, the Wild Card round couldn’t have transpired more appropriately, and the Divisional round slate appears as compelling as ever. If you’re searching for significance or incentive to pay attention this weekend, you may have to get your head examined. Without further ado, let’s find out what this season’s Divisional round playoff match-ups are all about.

Saturday, Jan. 15th, 2011- 4:30 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

We all know how these teams make their names, no need to throw in season stats.
These teams are 7-7 against one another since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season in 2004, and the one time these teams faced in the playoffs with similar squads, the Steelers prevailed 24-13 and advanced to the Super Bowl.

In short, Ravens/Steelers match-ups are excruciatingly difficult to gauge. Every game is close, nearly every game is low scoring, and every game inevitably showcases big hits and memorable moments on a relatively marquee stage. It’s virtually the same game every time, excluding distinctive highlights and the precise final score. We all know what to expect.

What we can expect to fall outside historical norms is the personnel these specific teams utilized this season. On the Baltimore side, Ray Rice hasn’t been the effective machine he was last season, and he may have to resurrect the facets that made him that very instrument last season for the Ravens to advance to the AFC Championship. Joe Flacco may have a much deadlier receiving core this season compared to last, and the Baltimore wideouts proved so with key plays in both games versus Pittsburgh this season. However, fourth quarter offense will be exceedingly critical in this Saturday’s contest.

The Ravens have blatantly struggled with their fourth quarter offense this season, giving up leads with precariously over-conservative game plans. When you think “conservative” you may think monotonous run plays. However, the Ravens have problems getting anything going at all. If anything, as they proved earlier this season with Troy Polamalu’s strip-sack, Baltimore doesn’t run the football effectively enough to contain leads.

The glitches began in week six against New England when they relinquished a 20-10 fourth quarter lead and eventually lost 23-20 in overtime; continued in week 12 at Tampa Bay when they managed to win 17-10 despite a scoreless second half; exacerbated two weeks later when Houston forced overtime on Monday Night Football despite trailing the Ravens 28-7 in the third quarter, and rendered epitomical the week prior with Polamalu’s strip-sack in a 13-10 Sunday Night Football loss to Pittsburgh despite leading 10-6 in the final four minutes. Overall, this game will likely come down to which team plays best in the final minutes, which means it’s…

All about the quarterbacks. The Baltimore play calling in the finals minutes is far beyond the aberration stage, trend stage, and even the problem stage. If they win, it will be because Joe Flacco played phenomenally enough for the Ravens defense to sustain a lead. With a glaring concern in place for them and Ben Roethlisberger under center on the opposing side, those circumstances are tough to envision. Roethlisberger has already proven his competency in the month of January, and in a game like this, a proven entity is much more likely to prevail. Combine that with Pittsburgh’s own lethal receiving core (Mike Wallace and a crew of young depth, which attains advantages against Baltimore’s uncertain cornerbacks), the Steelers obtain enough auspiciousness to widen the narrow gap between these two teams.

The pick: Pittsburgh 17, Baltimore 13 (Steelers -3)

Saturday, Jan. 15th, 2011- 8:00 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

The Championship Philosophy plus home-field advantage plus a bye week equals a win, right?

Well, you might have to think again when assessing the Atlanta Falcons. They’re 26th overall this year in yards per rushing attempt (3.8 yards). Secretly, the Falcons aren’t just an overrated running team, they’re sub-par. On the other side of the football, Atlanta was 22nd in overall passing defense this regular season.

Essentially, Atlanta needs to be great at the two things they weren’t great at all season to beat Green Bay this Saturday night. The Falcons will need to control clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, as well as defend the pass once he does come off the sidelines. Moreover, the Falcons attempted the second-most third downs in the NFL this season. Teams converted on third down against the Packers 36.2% of the time, which was ninth in the NFL. Culminating those dynamics with the most first downs achieved by penalty (42 total), the Falcons are appearing to be more and more of an aberration than anything else. The home crowd may help, but is Matt Ryan truly ready to step up in those types of pressure situations on a big stage against a surging Packers team? The variables are starting to add up.

Atlanta wins its games and forms its identity by winning the turnover battle (+13, first in the NFL), but Green Bay is fourth in takeaways and second in interceptions. Those aspects may be a wash. But one thing isn’t a wash, because this game is…

All about Aaron Rodgers. He’s the clear-cut difference-maker. He’s the one with the ability to blow this game wide open and make the Packers a Super Bowl contender. With a running game now miraculously present in his backfield, he may start verging on the unstoppable. This game and the rest of the postseason could very well be the difference between his place in the second tier of quarterbacks (which now only consists of Philip Rivers and Rodgers himself) and the top tier (Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning). That’s a divergent discussion in itself, but we’ll save that for another day.

The pick: Green Bay 27, Atlanta 21 (Packers +2.5)

Sunday, Jan. 16th, 2011- 1:00 PM ET Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Although these teams played one another way back in week six, the same weaknesses Seattle exploited in that game will be needed once again to pull a second consecutive upset. Obviously, Bears quarterback Jay Cutler will be the pivotal factor in this one (a combined 9 interceptions in Chicago’s 5 losses this season), and the offensive line will need to prolong its improvement and keep him protected. The Seahawks aren’t a particularly great pass rushing team (13th in the NFL this season), don’t necessarily attain many ball hawks (12 total interceptions on the season, tied for 25th overall), and their unreliable pieces (i.e., Marcus Trufant) may open things up for Cutler. The Bears are an improved team since the last match-up on October 17, so advancement to the NFC championship game looks promising. However, this game is…

All about the uncertainty. What if Jay Cutler does reproduce one of those stinkbombs? A Jay Cutler in his first playoff game is possibly the riskiest Jay Cutler you could ever ask for. Furthermore, the Seattle Seahawks are seemingly on a run of great familiarity.

Stop me when this sounds familiar: NFC West team; first-round upset victory with all the momentum in the world; experienced quarterback; no signs of playoff-quality potential during the regular season yet played with supreme confidence once they arrived; a we-have-absolutely-nothing-to-lose mindset…
Yes, this is too reminiscent of the Arizona Cardinals two years ago. If the Seahawks weren’t in the NFC West, I’d think differently. Intermingling a risky quarterback with memorably palpable and intangible similarities is too much to account for to lay ten points. The 2008 Cardinals may have taught us all something.

The pick: Chicago 24, Seattle 20 (Seahawks +10)

Sunday, Jan. 16th, 2011- 4:30 PM ET
New York Jets at New England Patriots

Here comes the trash talking again. But it’s all in the way the Jets carry themselves both on and off the field. Without it, Mark Sanchez would play apathetically, Braylon Edwards wouldn’t catch any passes, LaDanian Tomlinson wouldn’t be as psyched up after every ten-plus yard run, and the defense wouldn’t play with vital reckless abandon. That’s what New York has in its favor: purely invaluable intangibles.

At the same time, the last Tom Brady you’d like to face is a fired-up Tom Brady. If there’s a player in the NFL with near-equivalent Kobe Bryant characteristics, it’s Brady. As he’s shown on multiple occasions this season (particularly on Sunday Night Football in Pittsburgh in week 10), Brady hasn’t lost one bit of competitive fire. As much as I despise the Patriots as a Raiders fan, I vastly regret removing the Patriots from the “Elite 5” and deeming Brady’s career in flux. He just generated his second-best statistical season, and is possibly playing the best football of his career at age 33, considering the weapons in his arsenal. He uses the tools he obtains (multiple talented yet unproven tight ends, possession receivers with no explosiveness, pass-catching running backs) like no other quarterback. The offense Brady has perfected this season is the exact formula the Patriots used to win three Super Bowls in the current Brady-Belichick era. Fuse that with the ideal climax (New England has scored at least 30 points in its final eight games), the Patriots are not only primed to win this Sunday, but throughout the month of January and into February.

The only evident weakness: Defense. The Patriots allowed the highest third down conversion percentage in the NFL this season (47.1%). Despite putting up a mere three points in the last contest, the New York offense is tailor-made to slowly eat the Patriots alive. The Jets are artists at grinding games out and putting themselves in third-and-short situations. When Mark Sanchez converts in those situations, the Jets are virtually unbeatable. So what gives in this AFC divisional rivalry of the weekend? Well, it’s…

All about the grudge match. Take the score ‘45-3’ and throw it out the window. A rivalry game of this magnitude consisting of so much banter isn’t going to render blowout boredom. The Jets will attempt to play keep away, control the clock and execute on third down against a youthful New England secondary. The Patriots will simply continue to do what they’ve done all season. Bottom line: New England is the better team; just never underestimate the power of a rivalry.

The pick: New England 31, New York Jets 24 (Jets +9)

NFL Wild Card Preview: Neglecting the Individual

2011-01-07T09:24:00.000-08:00

Rule number one for this year’s NFL playoffs: treat the individual with the utmost indifference. I know I gave you an assembly of players to start believing in earlier this season, but just trust me on this one. If you feel the need to sway towards one team or the other based on one specific player’s ability to impact a game, I’m advising you to steer clear.

There are various reasons for this, but one stands out most evidently. The 2010-2011 NFL season has been one of parity and multiple contenders (save for New England’s commanding surge), so it’s been easy to point out irregularities and dazzling outputs. When the Colts were struggling mightily earlier this season, Peyton Manning’s atypical deficiencies gave us reason to set the Colts aside. When Mike Vick hit the scene and captivated the NFL world this season, it gave us a reason to promote a fundamental favorite. When Mark Sanchez gave no inclination that he could put up championship-caliber quarterback numbers at one point this season, it gave us a reason to further downgrade the Jets after their 45-3 loss to the Patriots in week 13 and 10-6 loss to Miami the week after. When two sub-.500 teams were battling for the NFC West title, a simple quarterback match-up gave the entire world a reason to go the Rams’ way.

Essentially, the parity of the NFL this season has given us a week-to-week perspective of where teams reside on the power rankings totem pole. It’s also rendered us to make decisions on which teams are better or which teams are more apt to make a run based on meticulous or singular factors. In turn, skewed outlooks can surface. Come playoff time, there’s always a few teams that make you think, “Wow, I knew they were that good, but (blank) made me doubt them” or “(insert player here) made the difference in my bet, and it screwed me.” You don’t want to get snookered and be saying those things to yourself this Monday. This year’s Wild Card round contains some players that may influence you in the wrong direction. Without further ado, let’s launch this year’s NFL Playoff Preview (picks against spread in parentheses).

Saturday, Jan. 8th, 2011- 4:30 PM ET
New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

Let me start off the shortest playoff game analysis ever by saying this: all the talk about changing the playoff system because one 7-9 team in the history of the NFL made the playoffs. It’s happened once. The system is fine how it is. The concept of giving incentive to a team for winning its division created the following rivalry games: Packers vs. Bears; Packers vs. Lions; Packers vs. Vikings; Vikings vs. Bears; Cowboys vs. Giants; Cowboys vs. Redskins; Giants vs. Redskins; Giants vs. Eagles; Cowboys vs. Cardinals; Raiders vs. Broncos; Raiders vs. Chiefs; Raiders vs. Chargers; Steelers vs. Browns; Steelers vs. Ravens; Patriots vs. Jets; every other divisional rivalry a fan may consider. Without division titles, half of these rivalries may not even exist. Additionally, it makes for a more interesting playoff format and possibly the best in all of sports. It makes fans more invested. NBA fans may know what conference their favorite team is in – but at the same time – may have no clue what division the team is in. In the NFL, fans care about those things, simultaneously adding to the significance of the regular season.

It also gives a team like the Seattle Seahawks a home game in an electrifying playoff atmosphere. Qwest Field will be invariably pulsating through the NBC telecast on Saturday, which is enough for me to get excited. The only thing that makes me more excited: Charlie Whitehurst’s wannabe prettyboy look. Unfortunately, Matt Hasselbeck is getting the start.

On another note, the Saints may be in for another magical run this season, and their 10-1 odds to repeat look very tasty and may be the best future bet on the board. It all has to start somewhere.

The Pick: New Orleans 38, Seattle 13 (Saints -10.5)

Saturday, Jan. 8th, 2011- 8:00 PM ET
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

Things that may sway you towards Peyton Manning and the Colts: Manning has won five of his last six games versus Rex Ryan’s defenses in both New York and Baltimore; the Colts are at home against an offensively-challenged team; Peyton Manning is undefeated against Ryan in games that actually matter; the Jets send multiple blitzers because they don’t obtain a pure pass rush, which can potentially play into Manning’s hands; the Colts have Peyton Manning.

Every aforementioned reason to pick the Colts to advance is because of Peyton Manning. First off, I’d be the last person to degrade Peyton Manning. He’s the best quarterback in the NFL and the best quarterback I’ve ever seen. But if I’m not mistaken, football is a team sport. Yes, there have been many instances when a certain player has willed his team to victory and driven his team to the next level, but never has one player virtually won a game completely and utterly on his own.

This is where indifference to individuality should be first constituted in this Wild Card round. The Colts wouldn’t be where they are without Peyton Manning, but Manning has nothing to do with Indianapolis’s secondary youth, inefficiency against the run (127 yards per game), and slew of injuries on the offensive side.

A previous game that New York will likely emulate its game plan after is the Chargers game on Sunday Night Football in week 12. The Chargers did exactly what the Jets will do this Saturday. They sent a myriad of blitzes at Manning from a 3-4 scheme, which forced Manning to make hot reads for the majority of the game and the Colts struggled. Generally, Manning has no problem making hot reads and hitting quick routes when pressured. But injuries on the offensive line have left him far from a comfort zone all season, and injuries to his receiving core and tight end Dallas Clark have diminished his chemistry and dependability when making the necessary reads. Peyton Manning is still the same quarterback he’s always been, but his surroundings are far from familiar.

Moreover, the Jets thrive in these moments. Rex Ryan’s cockiness seems to ignite and permeate throughout his team in particular significant games. If this turns out to be one of those games, everything will be in New York’s favor.

The Pick: New York 26, Indianapolis 17 (Jets +2.5)

Sunday, Jan. 9th, 2011- 1:00 PM ET
Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs
At first glance, this could look like a trap game to some and easy money to others. I’ll vie for neither. This game has the makings of a close, low scoring game that both teams may have a chance to win in the final minutes. Stalemates may be frequent with Kansas City’s top-ranked run game and Baltimore’s fifth-ranked rush defense matching up. The key for Kansas City will be flipping the script and attacking the Ravens’ mediocre corners. Although Matt Cassel has been efficient throwing the ball this season (27 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions), the Chiefs haven’t relied on throwing the ball all season. If the run game is unsuccessful early, it may be too late if they decide to unveil the aerial attack in the second half.

However, if that proves to be the case, a couple of Jamaal Charles money plays may render crucial in this contest. The Ravens have had dilemmas within their crunch time offense this season, so the prospect of a two-touchdown lead is nowhere near safe in the fourth quarter at New Arrowhead Stadium. This game will inevitably come down to the Baltimore defense making multiple stops and becoming the closers if the Ravens do in fact have the lead.

Despite producing many less-than-convincing wins against quality opponents this season, the Ravens are still one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. Following this Wild Card round, their flaws will become much more apparent, but a team like Kansas City, which played only one team over .500 this season but still only finished 10-6, doesn’t portray the ability to pose the problems the more talented teams in the AFC have so blatantly exposed. Arrowhead Stadium may be a daunting place to play, and the Chiefs may have some explosive pieces offensively, but the safe team is always the team that’s proven the most. I mean, what would you rather have in the final four minutes of a close game, the Baltimore defense or Kansas City offense?

My point exactly.

The Pick: Baltimore 23, Kansas City 17 (Ravens -3)

Sunday, Jan. 9th, 2011- 4:30 PM ET
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

Brace yourselves. I want you to treat the following player with full-fledged disregard for his individual talents:

Mike Vick.

Okay, I know that was hard, but put this into perspective: The Eagles start two young linebackers (Moise Fokou and rookie Jamar Chaney, who was drafted 220th overall), a young secondary aside from Asante Samuel (Dimitri Patterson and rookie safety Kurt Coleman, who was drafted 244th overall) and only one formidable pass rusher (Trent Cole). Does that sound like a defense capable of containing Aaron Rodgers?

The only imposing component the Eagles possess on the defensive side is their speed. Philadelphia takes advantage of outside runs and finesse teams and leaves its offense to do the rest. The Packers may fit that finesse mold, but if they’re able to produce enough rushing yards to keep the Eagles off balance, Aaron Rodgers will effortlessly sift through the Philadelphia defense. If Rodgers truly is an elite NFL quarterback, his time to break through the top-tier threshold is now.

Now, why ignore Mike Vick? Because the Green Bay defense is one of the ideal Vick-deterrents in the league. The key for some teams has been a traditional 4-man front with a cover-2 scheme and a perennial pass-rusher (Chicago Bears). The other has been a zone scheme with a premier pass-rusher and a hard-nosed blitzing corner (Minnesota Vikings). Well, the Packers have the zone scheme (albeit a 3-4), a devastating all-world pass rusher (Clay Matthews), and blitzing corners (Charles Woodson, sometimes others). Basically, the Packers are as improvisational defensively as the Eagles are offensively. The only external factor will be containing DeSean Jackson’s downfield speed, but 30 other teams had the same problem this year, too.

The Big Play is always viable with this Eagles team, and is perpetually frightening when rooting for (or betting for) the opposition. But both of these teams have had ebbs and flows to their seasons, and Green Bay has currently been on an upswing in team fluctuation, winning its final two games to earn itself a playoff spot. Mike Vick seemed to have lost his luster in the Minnesota contest two weeks ago, which is tough to foresee happening again.

However, if there’s one team in the NFC playoffs (besides Chicago, Vick’s kryptonite) that has the tools to conquer Michael Vick, stomp on his back and pound their chests, it’s the Green Bay Packers. From that vantage point, the individual doesn’t appear so powerful.

The Pick: Green Bay 34, Philadelphia 28 (Green Bay +2.5)

The Winter that Saved Baseball

2010-12-22T21:36:00.000-08:00

I don’t know about you, but sometimes I find myself feeling that sports should produce justifiable results. For example, when the Saints won the Super Bowl back in February, the only explanation I could think of for the occurrence was that it was total destiny. The Indianapolis Colts proved nothing less than Super Bowl championship qualities and New Orleans made its way to Miami thanks to a plethora of Minnesota turnovers and a long-awaited Bret Favre implosion in the NFC championship game. Before Super Bowl XLIV, the Colts were seemingly the better team in nearly every facet. After the game, I felt much differently.

However, when you obtain a mindset such as my own, teams like the 2008-09 Arizona Cardinals and the 2007 Colorado Rockies aren’t expected to win when they reach the game of their sports’ highest glory. Sports aren’t supposed to be about which teams get hot at the right time; it’s about which teams portray championship-quality aspects and ultimately find a way to parlay those aspects into a complete championship team.
When it comes to teams such as the abovementioned, some manage to reach a previously unfathomable peak, essentially ruining the joy of following teams during the regular season. Which is exactly what transpired this past season in Major League Baseball.

On August 25, 2010, the eventual World Series champions were 6.5 games back in the NL West. They were in Wild Card contention, but the San Francisco Giants were more of an afterthought with the inevitability of a Philadelphia Phillies season-ending surge. That did in fact happen, but so did a collapse in San Diego, as the Padres lost 10 straight and could feel the Giants and Rockies nipping at their heels. Thanks to that dreadful swoon, the Giants maintained the pitching, defense, and overall record to stay in contention and ultimately claim the NL West title by a 2-game margin.

We all know what happened thereafter. The Giants won a magical World Series with an imposingly dominant pitching staff and a crew of misfits knocking in the necessary runs. It wasn’t pretty baseball, and it sure wasn’t star-studded, but it was enchanting, compelling, and mind-boggling all at the same time. But for a fan of my ilk, it was hard not to feel some feelings of exasperation.

The Giants had been in virtually zero playoff conversation until September. The best teams had been playing up to par all season, performing at a high level and showing signs of what we would eventually see come playoff time. In a nutshell, I felt like I wasted a significant portion of my life following teams that I felt would make an impact in the playoffs, and found myself regretting the time I put into analyzing teams such as the Rays, Rangers and Phillies because of the World Series potential I witnessed.

I’ve now come to grips with the fact that, in baseball, it’s all about getting hot at the right time. It’s the essence of the game. It’s a game of streaks, and when a team starts its hot streak in late October, that team is going to have a legitimate shot at winning the World Series. The season is a marathon, and if you have the stamina and short-distance speed to win the final sprint, all you have to do is still be in the race. However, when looking at baseball from a greater context, is this good for an already struggling sport?

Recent history has shown that regular season baseball isn’t as meaningful in comparison to other sports. This isn’t only true from the perspective of the die-hard fan, but the casual fan as well. What’s the point of following a sport during the regular season when it essentially means nothing?

Ticket sales and television ratings for the 2010 season reflected this conundrum most evidently. Two of the league’s most prestigious teams, the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers, experienced a 35% and 17% drop in TV ratings by July of last season, respectively. Major League Baseball’s attendance fell 6.6% in 2009 and teams began to show frustration due to the lack of attendance in 2010. Last season was probably the Tampa Bay Rays’ final shot at reaching a World Series with the players they attained at the time, yet the club spent a lot of time reaching out to fans or showing their disgust for the half-empty stadiums that were supporting one of the best teams in baseball.

Moreover, this season’s All-Star game produced the lowest-ever television rating in the event’s history with a 7.5 rating. The Red Sox lost its local RSN ratings lead for the first time in six years, as it plummeted from first to fifth. As one of the teams baseball thrives off, the Red Sox became a virtual nonentity last season and proved to be one of the hinges of baseball’s success, as well as its demise.

Some of it was the team itself; the rest was the fact that regular season baseball is becoming irrelevant. While regular season attendance and All-Star game ratings fell, playoff ratings jumped.

The 2010 League Championship Series became the highest rated of any LCS since the broadcasts were split between FOX and TBS four years ago. Furthermore, the fourth game of the ALCS was watched by 9.9 million viewers, which made the game the second-most watched postseason baseball game in cable TV history.

Conversely, World Series ratings reached a record low with an 8.4 rating.

There are a multitude of possible reasons for this. The first is the fact that neither the Yankees nor Red Sox were in the Fall Classic. Another is the fact that baseball’s viewership has been steadily declining since the conclusion of the Steroid Era and the downturn of the economy.

However, the underlying explanation may have the most impact. Maybe the casual fan felt some sort of emptiness in the culmination of the 2010 baseball season as well. Maybe those fans realized once again that baseball is nowhere near the perfect world. The Giants’ dazzling postseason run was nothing short of greatness, and undoubtedly captivated every suffering fan in the city of San Francisco, but it may have done more harm to baseball than good.

Which is why the current offseason has been a godsend to the game. The arrivals of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox have bolstered the Boston lineup and will imminently reinvigorate the Yanks/Sox rivalry within the playoffs. The addition of Cliff Lee to the Phillies has constructed the perennial pitching staff of the era and possibly the most daunting in history.
With four aces in the National League (Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in Philadelphia) and slew of slugging lefties in the American League (Crawford, Gonzalez, and David Ortiz in Boston), two of baseball’s most renowned franchises will be chasing pennants from the opening pitch. Maybe these acquisitions to two of the most storied baseball towns in America will revitalize the league, or maybe they won’t. Regardless, it makes the upcoming season much more intriguing, and the top-heavy pennant races that baseball has always flourished under will be in full force and as beguiling as ever.

I don’t know about you, but baseball’s regular season will be much more relevant to me in 2011.

Believe In Me

2010-11-17T06:49:00.000-08:00

Every good football team has at least one player you can believe in. It’s the guy you can count on to make that one big throw, big run, big catch, key defensive play or first down. It’s the guy that gives you no inkling of fear when the ball is in his hands when it matters. It’s the guy you know will make the mesmerizing play. It’s the guy you know thrives off the big moments.

The big names of the NFL obviously attain these attributes. However, some lesser names may not immediately come to mind when sorting out the most trustworthy players in the league. There’s the premier crop of players we already know about – the Tom Bradys, Peyton Mannings and Chris Johnsons of the NFL – but there’s a fair share of not-so-household names to start believing in.

Hakeem Nicks

I was a vehement Nicks fan during his college stint at North Carolina. Multiple facets of his talents as a wide receiver stood out more than others in the NCAA ranks. His hands are humongous, and his speed was virtually unparalleled to any other college receiver with his size. The size and speed combination is always something to marvel at the college level, because it’s essentially an uncommon blend for an 18-22 year-old. Even his route running and run-after-catch abilities were astonishing. Almost every quality Nicks portrayed as a wide receiver at North Carolina made you think: “This guy was born to be an NFL wideout.” But he dropped to the second round of the draft and never received any preseason rookie buzz. Not even this catch perked NFL scouts’ ears up enough.

Now Nicks has slowly become Eli Manning’s number one target, one of the Giants’ best offensive players, and one of the most dependable wide receivers in the league. His size allows him to make catches across the middle of the field with ease, he can make defenders miss and gain valuable yards after the catch on bubble screens, has an uncanny ability to make moves on defenders before he catches the ball and still hauls in passes and gains extra yardage, and is a legitimate threat in the redzone when running fade routes. Oh, and he’s third in the league in receiving yards (735), tied for first in touchdowns (9), and second in catches for over 20 yards (16 total).

In other words, start believing in him. He’s a star in the making.

Arian Foster

By now, Foster has become a household name (especially if you’re a fantasy user), but his abilities outside of racking up monstrous fantasy numbers aren’t acknowledged as much as they should. In fact, Chris Johnson is the only NFL runner more suited for a zone blocking scheme than Foster. He’s exceptionally patient, doesn’t run towards the sidelines unless he has to, and quickly hits holes as soon as he sees them open up. Zone blocking schemes have a way of making offensive lineman look good – rather than the contrary – and Arian Foster is making his offensive line look very good. The only person he can’t make look good at this point is Texans head coach Gary Kubiak.

Peyton Hillis

You know you can believe in someone when he’s leading the Browns to wins over teams like the Patriots and Saints, and keeping things close for his team against the Jets. Not to mention that he’s breaking color barriers as a white running back in 2010 and running guys over like a bulldozer. He’s basically the reincarnation of Mike Alstott with a little less power and a little more speed. Because of him, the Browns are a frisky team that has proven to be capable of winning any given week no matter what team they face. Hillis has rushed for 726 yards and eight touchdowns this season, and is more than on pace to rush for over 1,000. The last white running back to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season: Craig James in 1985 for the New England Patriots. I think it’s about time we start believing in Peyton Hillis.

Darren McFadden

If you read last week’s column, you know exactly why McFadden is a running back to believe in. To put it simply, he’s altered the entire complexion of the Oakland offense. Moreover, he’s probably one of the most exciting runners to watch in the NFL. Contrary to his first two years in the league, he finishes off every run with conviction and has found a way to continuously reach the second level and utilize his dynamic open-field speed. As goes McFadden, so do the Raiders; and mark my words: Run-DMC will be a top-4 NFL running back within the next two seasons. Believe in THAT!

Roddy White

Let’s get this out of the way: 70 catches, 934 yards receiving, seven touchdowns, and 227 yards after the catch through nine games. That’s first, second, fifth (tied), and sixth in those categories for wide receivers, respectively. That, itself, is extraordinary. What’s most astounding when watching Roddy White is the fact that he’s possibly the most skilled wide receiver in the NFL. But don’t take it from me; take it from my friend Matt, who offered me White and some scrub for Andre Johnson before the fantasy football season. I quickly shot down the proposal, so Matt immediately jumped on the Roddy White bandwagon and decided to start sending me “So, did you check out Roddy White’s box score?” texts every week. Now he’s trying to convince me that he’s the best receiver in the NFL. If I were to do it all over again, I probably would have done the same thing and stuck with AJ. I still think he’s one of the two best wide receivers in the league and is the most dependable, outside of Larry Fitzgerald. Does that mean I don’t like Roddy White? Not even. He’s become a top-5 NFL wideout on a 7-2 team, and might enter the top two if Johnson’s durability starts becoming and issue and Fitzgerald doesn’t find anyone to play quarterback for him. If that happens, I’ll hand out some lofty considerations. Let’s just say I won’t be getting any trade proposals including Roddy White in the upcoming years.

Josh Freeman

At first glance, Freeman had some raw talents similar to Ben Roethlisberger during his rookie season. His 6-foot-6, 250-pound frame makes him virtually impossible to sack, which complements his stunning arm strength. He may not put up huge numbers or look fancy doing it, but Josh Freeman simply finds a way to win games for his team. The Bucs are 6-3 and in favorable position to snag a playoff spot, despite having a nonexistent running attack and a squad similar to last season’s 3-13 team. However, the most shocking revelation when assessing Freeman: Of his eight career wins, six of them have been fourth-quarter comebacks.

Marinate on that for a second. In his second year in the league at 22 years old, Josh Freeman already knows how to lead his team to victory and display resiliency at its finest. If that’s not enough, maybe his 90.1 passer rating, 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions is. Or the throw at the end of this highlight. Or this throw. Or the fact that he has vast room for improvement with a newfound legitimate runner behind him in LeGarrette Blount. Or the fact that he, along with head coach Raheem Morris, is all but single-handedly reversing the dismay in Tampa Bay. Or the fact that he’s a quarterback you can believe in come playoff time.

Mark Sanchez

Ok, he may already be a household name, but Mark Sanchez wasn’t necessarily a quarterback you could depend on before this season. This year, he’s led his team to three fourth quarter wins in the last four games, put up big numbers in key games (most notably, his 21/30, 220-yard, 3-touchdown, 0 interception performance in week 2 against the Patriots), and it took him six games to throw his first pick. Sanchez is no longer the offensive mediator in front of a relentless rushing attack.

So far this season, the Jets have had a tendency to stall offensively. In turn, it’s resulted in close games against seemingly inferior opposition. This could be viewed as a problem, and it probably is, but this problem has become a blessing in disguise in some ways. In games against the Broncos (recently becoming a valiant home team), Lions (intermittently explosive offensively, play with immense heart), and Browns (can win any given week against any given team), the Jets pulled out victories in multiple fashions involving their star quarterback.

Sanchez showed prudence with his throw to Santonio Holmes in week six against the Broncos, inducing a pass interference penalty and sealed a win in a game in which he played poorly.

He portrayed resiliency against the Lions in week nine, as he completed a 4-minute drill, down 20-10, to tie the game in regulation. The Jets eventually claimed the overtime victory in a game in which they fumbled five times and couldn’t find any offensive rhythm.

Then they met up with the frisky Browns, and Mark Sanchez displayed his fearlessness and ability to make the big throw in the big moment. His immaculate throw on a slant pattern with less than a minute remaining in the overtime period put Santonio Holmes in position to make a move on the safety and race into the endzone.

The Jets may be squeaking out victories, but Mark Sanchez is aiding them in finding ways to post them in any way possible. That’s what elite teams do, no matter what the opposition may be in this parity-filled league known as the NFL.

Mike Vick

It’s hard not to believe in Michael Vick at this point. Forget that he currently has the highest passer rating in the NFL (115.1); has thrown 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions this season; is posting a completion percentage higher than 60% for the first time in his career; is averaging 56.8 rushing yards per game; and broke a single-game record by passing for 300+ and rushing for 50+ with four passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns last week.

Mike Vick is doing more than posting stats. He’s commanding a team that had “lackluster team in transition” written all over it before the season. He looks as agile and speedy as he did when he was captivating fans in his days in Atlanta, and has actually become a polished pocket passer for the first time in his career. He’s found himself towards the top of the NFL MVP race on a playoff-caliber team.

But most of all, Vick is gradually doing what nobody thought he could ever do. He’s inspiring onlookers with his comeback story, grabbing positive attention when it seemed as though dog-lovers and PETA advocates would engulf him off the field, and mesmerizing fans as if he was never on hiatus. If the Eagles make the postseason, I’ll be rooting for Mike Vick, and I don’t think I’ll be alone. He’s the one to start believing in most.

The Silver & Black are (really) back(?)

2010-11-09T17:03:00.000-08:00

Being an East Bay Area sports fan isn’t easy.

In fact, it’s more agonizing than most would realize. The Golden State Warriors haven’t won a championship since 1975, the Raiders haven’t won the Super Bowl since 1984 (Super Bowl XVII), the Sharks have had the most promise in recent years to reach prominence but have never won the Stanley Cup and continue to implode every postseason, and the A’s are the most recent to claim glory with the 1989 Battle of the Bay sweep over the San Francisco Giants.
For a fan like me who was born in the early 90s, it’s exceedingly painful. I’ve been an avid (and “avid” would be an understatement) sports fan since I picked up a football around the age of eight. I’ve never seen or experienced the euphoria that comes with one of my teams winning a championship. I wouldn’t compare myself to a fan in Cleveland, but fans of my ilk would agree that seeing one of the four aforementioned teams win a title would be almost too much to handle. We literally wouldn’t even know what to do if it happened.

But there’s always hope that at least one of those teams can get there. The “We Believe” Warriors of 2006-07 expedited the precedent of faith the fans always had; and although that team has come and gone, its aura seemed to have permeated throughout every fanbase.

This has been most evident with the fans of The Silver and Black, who, in retrospect, seem to accentuate the Raiders with unfeasible expectations from year to year (me not being one of them… in most cases).

But how can you blame the Raider Nation when it doesn’t seem like things can get any worse?

From 2003-2009, the Raiders won a total of 29 games, never eclipsed over five wins in a season, and were commanded by five different head coaches. Fans saw the likes of Kerry Collins, LaMont Jordan, Aaron Brooks, Randy Moss, Daunte Culpepper and JaMarcus Russell come and go. Countless penalties haunted the team every year, no matter the personnel. And most of all, Al Davis lived to put everyone through it all. Of all the anguish by the bay, the Raiders have been drenched in insufferable infamy that none of the other residing teams could possibly equal.

Each of these attributes factored into my near-overreaction earlier this season. Based on one game against the lowly Arizona Cardinals, the season already felt over. We (us Raider fans) had seen this movie before: glimpses of potential prior to the season, decent to start the season, followed by an irrevocably crushing loss. When the Raiders lose a game that’s gift-wrapped for them, or things seem to start swaying the opposite direction, the entire season goes down in flames. That’s the mentality every team has had since the Super Bowl XXXVII loss and Rich Gannon’s career-ending injury the following season. No matter what coaches, players, or front office figures have headlined the organization, the past seven years have been everything but the definition of “resiliency.” Which so happens to be something every championship caliber, or competent NFL team for that matter, portrays and obtains.

Six weeks ago, it just felt like another season. I was expending my only satisfaction on the dismantled Cowboys. I was ready for the Warriors to start playing again. I was more interested in the Miami Heat than my own NFL team.

Moreover, just about a week ago, I attempted to recollect the most memorable moments in my life as a Raider fan. The first thing that popped in my head was sitting in my room without the TV on while the second half of Super Bowl XXXVII was being televised. The positive moments are slim to none.

Nevertheless, I was as excited, anxious, and nervous as ever for last Sunday’s rivalry revival against the Chiefs. It was the first game in seven years with legitimate merit: the opportunity to start the season 3-0 in the division; the chance to attain an above-.500 record for the first time since the start of the 2004 season; a win meant the first 3-game winning streak since 2002 and only a half-game discrepancy between the Chiefs in the AFC West with the tiebreaker. Winning would render a near-perfect storm.

However, I was on my toes. Those too-good-to-be-true prospects could only substantiate from what the Raiders would show in the first quarter. I was sure of it. The Raiders operate by game the same way they operate by season. If it goes their way early, it’s going to be interesting. If it doesn’t, they’ll lay down.

Well, my worst fear gradually came to life in the first half.

Darrius Heyward-Bey got lasered in the chest by the first pass of the game and watched it hit the turf. The offense couldn’t even get in field goal range. Darren McFadden fumbled and I instantly thought to myself: “ Oh no, it’s all been an aberration. He’s the same guy he was the last two years.” Jason Campbell recorded a mere 9 passing yards all first half. Egregious penalties were adding up. Questionable penalties were going Kansas City’s way. Oakland attempted a few trick plays and tried to get things going out of the wildcat formation. Momentum was nowhere to be found. In a nutshell, it was an imminent Oakland Raiders breakdown in the making.

At halftime, I went home and threw my Derrick Burgess jersey off my shoulders and flung it in the hamper. The game was reminiscent of a 2007 tailspin, and my jersey was representing one. I only wore it for a half and could feel the foul stench overhanging it.

In fact, it resulted in this tweet: “Just took the Derrick Burgess jersey off. Unquestionably a new bad luck charm.”

Moments later, Jacoby Ford vindicated so by taking a 94-yard kick return to the Black Hole in less than a split-second. Despite playing so putrid and bland in the first half, the Raiders found themselves only down 10-7 to start the second half.

Subsequent tweet: “Looks like it was an undeniable, UNEQUIVOCAL bad luck charm.” Have fun in my closet for eternity, Burgess jersey.

That kick return was the first of six moments in this game that discerned this specific Raiders team from years past. Ford’s return was obviously a momentum-shifter, but was also only the fourth kick return for a score in the last seven years. If that wasn’t enough to change some things for the Silver & Black, here were the others:

With just over 7:30 left in the third quarter, Campbell flipped a short pass in the flat to McFadden as he bolted down the sideline. The McFadden of the previous two seasons would’ve done one of two things: immediately slip and fall to the ground as soon as he made his move after the catch; or swiftly and gingerly glide out of bounds as he made his way down the sideline. 2010 Darren McFadden? Well, let’s just say Chiefs safety Jon McGraw doesn’t consider him a dainty runner. Run-DMC has finally earned his nickname, is evolving into a complete runner, and is undoubtedly the heart and sole of the Oakland offense. Amazingly, he’s fourth in the league in rushing and third in yards per carry with six total touchdowns and missed two games. The Nation is walking his way.

Two plays later, Campbell completed a 2-yard touchdown pass to offensive lineman Khalif Barnes. Again, the cognitive trickery by offensive coordinator Hugh Jackson was on display. Not since the Super Bowl season in 2002-03 have the Raiders exposed defenses with unusual swing-plays. With Jackson calling plays, the Oakland offense has multiple facets behind it and the personnel is utilized more brilliantly than in past years. Just ask Run-DMC.

With just over 8:50 remaining, punt returner Nick Miller became victim to what appeared to be a questionable call of a fumble on the field. However, head coach Tom Cable had used both challenges, so the call could not be reviewed. The Chiefs gained possession, and five plays later, scored on a post pattern to Dwayne Bowe due to a blown assignment by the Oakland secondary. Why was this significant? Because the typical Raiders lay-down factor was inevitably in effect. Everything was going their way, the defense had bent and not broken all game, and then it broke. No Oakland offense in recent memory has been capable of scoring following such a dent in momentum. If this one could prove otherwise, it could also prove itself discernible.

Most of us know what happened on the ensuing sequence. The offense survived the remaining plethora of penalties, the defense made one last stand, and then Jacoby Ford’s first big catch happened.

Following a holding penalty, Jason Cambpell zipped a pass in tight coverage down the middle of the field. As soon as it seemed as though Brandon Flowers had the interception in his grasp, Ford ripped the ball from his hands, setting up the game-tying Sebastian Janikowski field goal. More than an overall astonishing play in itself, Jacoby Ford’s fourth quarter catch epitomized the intangibles and diminutive factors that come with embodying a winning football team. More than ever, Ford gave the Raiders something the team hadn’t had in seven years.

If that wasn’t enough, Ford decided to finish off the contest with a scintillating outstretched catch from a 47-yard bomb by Campbell. Janikowski nailed the game-winning field goal, and the Raiders found themselves where their fans were anxious to see them: in the perfect storm.

But it wasn’t just the game-winning field goal.

It wasn’t just the relentlessly stout defense, which rendered the top rushing team in the NFL over 70 yards below its average.

It wasn’t just the commendable play calling.

It wasn’t just the level of play with stars Nnamdi Asomugha and Zach Miller injured.

It wasn’t just Jacoby Ford’s performance.

It was the fact that this team bent and didn’t break; fell behind and wasn’t phased; made plays when it needed to; wasn’t affected by the vast magnitude of the game; won despite countless blunders and a gruesome first half; and displayed intangibles that fans like me aren’t accustomed to seeing.

That’s why the 2010 Oakland Raiders vividly discern themselves from the others, where there was no evidence of such six weeks ago. This time, I’m not hesitant to overreact. Not in this Autumn Wind.

The Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection

2010-10-08T08:45:00.000-07:00

The Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection. If you’re a regular reader on this site, you know what it is. If you know what it is, you know it’s not something an NFL team should intentionally strive for in any particular season. If not, here’s a definition for you:

The team with the most impressive second half in the season preceding and/or promising projections based on that season, resulting in excess hype and breakout expectations. In turn, that team ensues a season of inevitable and inexplicable disappointment.

Based on my calculations, it’s happened every year since 2005. It could have happened in previous years, but the teams placed in this coveted category within the past five years demonstrate this trend most evidently. Although this phenomenon has been brought up multiple times here, the details of it haven’t been completely elucidated in order to validate it as a legitimate common occurrence. There’s no perfect time than now.

2005 New Orleans Saints –The team originally broke the scene in 2000, when quarterback Aaron Brooks came off the bench and led the Saints to a Wild Card round victory over the defending Super Bowl champion St. Louis Rams. “Breakout potential” hovered over the franchise every year following, and New Orleans never made it back to the playoffs. The 2004 Saints paved the way for this trend when they ended the season on a 4-game winning streak. The Saints generated “breakout team” buzz for four solid years previous, unaware of what would eventually transpire because of the surge in 2004. The team finally self-destructed in 2005, as Aaron Brooks fell off the face of the earth (13 touchdowns, 17 interceptions; was out of league after his half-season stint in 2006 with the Raiders), and the devastation of Hurricane Katrina hit (demonstrating the inexplicable aspect of this phenomenon). Jim Hasslett was jettisoned as the head coach and the Saints commenced a rebuilding process. By 2005, the conception of the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection was secretly apparent.

2006 Miami Dolphins – Nick Saban concluded his first season as an NFL head coach with a 6-game winning streak in 2005. The team was full of promise: New life with a new head coach and seemingly invigorated atmosphere; a rookie running back in Ronnie Brown generating 907 yards of rushing production; Ricky Williams rushing for 743 yards subsequent his (first) sabbatical; an outstanding defensive cast in retrospect (although in its twilight in retrospect), all while a pedestrian quarterback (Gus Frerotte) commanded the offense. The team had nowhere to go but up. Or so it seemed.

Ricky Williams kicked off the 2006 season with his second substance abuse suspension and was forced out of football, followed by the promising Daunte Culpepper signing in the offseason. However, Culpepper wasn’t completely healthy following major knee surgery and struggled with his previously nifty mobility. Joey Harrington eventually stepped in, and it was over from there. The team hyped up to represent its home-field in the Super Bowl ended the season with a 6-10 record, 20th ranked offense and deteriorating defensive stars. Saban was ousted immediately after the season, as the Dolphins turned the conception into a trend.

2007 New York Jets – Eric Mangini’s first head coaching stint in 2006 (a season in which he was prematurely dubbed the “Mangenius”) culminated in a surprising 2006 Wild Card appearance. Chad Pennington showcased a poignant season, earning Comeback Player of the Year honors subsequent his second rotator cuff surgery. The Jets were ostensibly a team on the rise, but plummeted to 4-12 in 2007. Pennington performed terribly to start the season, as the Jets went 1-7 until he was benched. The team ultimately finished the season with a 26th ranked offense and Eric Mangini’s reputation as a head coach has remained horridly irreparable since.

2008 Cleveland Browns – The 2007 Browns finished an enthralling season in a tie for the AFC North crown, but lost the tiebreaker to the Steelers and were knocked out of the playoffs entirely. Cleveland exhibited one of the most dynamic offenses in the league, producing ungodly numbers in comparison to customary Browns teams – 3,787 yards passing, 29 touchdowns and a Pro Bowl appearance by Derek Anderson; 16 touchdown catches and a Pro Bowl selection for Braylon Edwards; over 1,000 receiving yards and Pro Bowl season by Kellen Winslow; 1,304 yards rushing and 9 touchdowns by Jamal Lewis – ultimately blending together nicely as an eighth-ranked NFL offense.

2008 required high expectations, and the organization reacted by re-signing Anderson to a 3-year, $24 million deal, signed Donte Stallworth, traded for Shaun Rodgers to bulk up the defensive side, and re-signed Lewis to ensure offensive potency in all phases.

The acquisitions and re-signings produced all but nothing, as Anderson was benched for Brady Quinn halfway through the season and the Kellen Winslow debacle took a life of its own. Winslow pleaded for a restructured contract before the season and was perpetually unhappy with the organization and GM Phil Savage; had issues with “staph infection;” received a one-game suspension following a loss to the Redskins midway through the season after lashing out at Savage, and brought the organization down with him. Amid the turmoil, Braylon Edwards was cementing his legacy has a notorious pass-dropper (went from 16 touchdown catches in ’07 to 3 in ’08), and the Browns descended from eighth in total offense in 2007 to 31st in ’08. Unsurprisingly, Romeo Crennel would not return as head coach of the team.

Just for kicks, take a look at this ESPN.com panel of NFL writers team preview for the 2008 Browns (Most notably, outlooks by Tim Graham and Matt Mosely).

2009 Houston Texans – Houston won five of its last six games in 2008 and was immediately projected as a 2009 breakout team. It reeked of Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection stench, as copious hype escalated to the inordinate. The Texans began the year 5-7, resurged to win its final four games, but failed to make the playoffs. For the first time, a team with a winning record met the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection criteria. The final four games of last season have seemed to carry over into this season, and the Texans seem like a legitimate team; but 2009 Houston undoubtedly sustained the trend.

And now we’re here. Prior to the 2010 regular season, one team received more “breakout team” hype than the rest. Granted, the hype appeared legitimate at the time, considering the circumstances. But just four weeks into the season, one team is already suffering the detriments and is worthy of the entitlements. The team? The San Francisco 49ers.
Head coach Mike Singletary’s first full season with the 49ers in 2009 brought a fresh and unquestionably necessary ambiance to San Francisco. Before his arrival, the team was in shambles and carried a vibe of instilled ambivalence to defeat. The team had suffered six straight losing seasons, collected a plethora of high first-round draft picks, and restructured personnel and coaching staffs multiple times until the team’s demise was concurrent with the atrocities across the bay.

We all know how Singletary eventually flipped the script: by kick-starting Vernon Davis’ career and uplifting a team with absolutely no previous incentive. Frank Gore put up huge numbers (1,120 yards rushing, 10 touchdowns, 4.9 yards per carry, 52 catches, 406 yards, 3 touchdowns receiving in 14 total games; Pro Bowl selection), Vernon Davis lit up the scoreboard (78 catches, 965 yards 13 touchdowns), Alex Smith portrayed promise in the second half of the season (produced a career-high 81.5 passer rating; threw 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions; started the final 10 games of the season), and the defense began to take shape as one of the best in the league (15th ranked, but allowed the fifth-fewest points in the league; fifth in total turnovers; profited from the solidification of Patrick Willis as a top-tier defensive player along with the likes of Troy Polamalu, Darrelle Revis, Ed Reed, Jared Allen, DeMarcus Ware and Nnamdi Asomugha; and obtained a stout overall foundation on the defensive side). The team had potential in just about every phase on paper. Then the buzz started to grow.

San Francisco kicked off the offseason by drafting two offensive linemen in the first round. It might not have been flashy, but it didn’t deter the resounding fan approval and “The last time a team drafted two offensive linemen in the first round was the Jets in 2006, and look how Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson turned out!” exclamations.

The lofty predictions began to pour in, as fans were being gradually convinced that Alex Smith was a reputable quarterback and that the division was going to be a cakewalk. The Niners had an inevitably easy road to success and the inevitable pieces to make it happen.

Then the season started, and now the inevitabilities have clearly diminished. The Seahawks trounced them in week one with gusto. New Orleans finally took victory in the final minutes in week two after San Francisco attempted to give the game away three times previous. In week three, Kansas City walked all over them the same way Seattle did and it resulted in Singletary firing his offensive coordinator (when your team fires its offensive coordinator three weeks into the season, chances are, your season is over. Maybe Alex Smith's 66.1 passer rating and 7 interceptions through four games should be taken into consideration). Last week, Atlanta defeated the hapless 49ers by a last-second field goal following Roddy White’s strip of Nate Clements on what should have been a game-sealing interception. All in all, nothing has gone right for the 49ers this season, and that’s what happens when you’re the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection. One minute you’re the runaway favorites to win the horrendous NFC West, the next minute you’re 0-4.

If there’s one team that can reverse the trend and rebound from a murky start, it’s this year’s selection. San Francisco’s next three games are home against the Vick-less Eagles, home against Raiders, and at the Carolina Panthers of the NFL’s cellar. Moreover, the NFC West is still putrid. The Rams are beginning to show consistency and the Seahawks may easily be the best of the bunch when playing at home, but the best team in the division is nowhere near apparent. If the preseason potential is still lingering somewhere in San Francisco, the 49ers aren’t completely out of the picture.

Even so, the team has started off the season with a winless record. The only team that has ever made the playoffs after starting 0-4 was the 1992 San Diego Chargers. To augment the pressure, this Sunday night has become a must-win for the Niners. No team has ever started a season 0-5 and gone on to make the playoffs. Much to the contrary of preseason prospects, this team is playing for the salvation of its season in week five. Considering the altered circumstances, outlooks are exceedingly grim.

With abundant hype comes overblown expectations. With overblown expectations comes a shocking collapse, regardless of how auspicious the perceived situation may be. That’s just how the Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection works. It’s become a true NFL entity, and the 49ers are just one of the many victims. Once this season is over, they’ll be able to get through it; then a new “breakout team” will unwillingly follow suit. Just be careful what team you hype up next.

Triple Covering Week 3

2010-09-28T22:13:00.000-07:00

On the verge…
I’ve seen plenty of devastating Raiders losses in the past several years, but I nearly reached the breaking point this week.

I usually come out of losses like this week’s 24-23 disaster with some sort of optimism, but couldn’t muster any feelings of hope from what I witnessed. The Raiders committed 11 penalties for a total of 123 yards, converted on third down only four times on fifteen attempts, finished the game 1-5 in the redzone (1-3 with goal-to-go), and capped off the most sickening drive I have ever witnessed in my life as an Oakland Raider fan with 7:59 remaining in the game. Following Arizona’s second inexplicably brainless muffed punt of the game, the drive played out like this:

1-10-ARI 16 (11:38) McFadden up the middle to ARZ 12 for 4 yards (Keep this in mind throughout this sequence: the drive starts at the Arizona 16-yard line.)

2-6-ARI 12 (10:59) Gradkowski pass short right to Reece to ARZ 16 for -4 yards (Horribly thrown ball by Gradkowski towards the sideline and behind the line of scrimmage; could’ve been immensely worse.)

Timeout #1 by OAK at 10:27.

3-10-ARI 16 (10:27) Gradkowski pass incomplete deep left to Miller. PENALTY on ARZ-27-M.Adams, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at ARZ 16 (First Arizona donation of the drive)

1-10-ARI 11 (10:23) Gradkowski pass short right to Murphy to ARZ 9 for 2 yards

2-8-ARI 9 (9:39) Gradkowski sacked at ARZ 13 for -4 yards (puts Oakland in yet another difficult third-and-long)

3-12-ARI 13 (9:17) Gradkowski pass incomplete short right to Heyward-Bey (28-G.Toler). PENALTY on ARZ-28-G.Toler, Defensive Pass Interference, 12 yards, enforced at ARZ 13 (second Arizona donation of the drive)

1-1-ARI 1 (9:12) M.Bush left tackle to ARZ 1 for no gain

2-1-ARI 1 (8:25) PENALTY on OAK- Gradkowski, Delay of Game, 4 yards, enforced at ARZ 1 - No Play. (First and goal at the one. Quarterback sneak play is called. And you get penalized for Delay of Game. SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME HOW THIS HAPPENS!!! HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO CALL A QUARTERBACK SNEAK??? This play, unequivocally, rendered some of the most exasperating and utterly confounding emotions I have ever felt as a Raiders fan. It all but vindicated my theory that no matter what players, coaches, or organizational employees work for the Raiders, the team will still suffer as long as Al Davis is around. The mere presence of his carcass leaves a stench over the organization. The ambiance in Oakland is irrevocable at this point until he passes.)

The drive would ultimately end with a 23-yard Sebastian Janikowski field goal. Eight plays, 11 yards, 3:39 time of possession. The Cardinals gift-wrapped a touchdown and the Raiders threw it away. To make things worse, the refs gift-wrapped a game-winning field goal after a dubious pass interference call on Arizona with 1:02 remaining, but Janikowski missed the now-infamous 32-yarder.

Furthermore, the Raiders out-gained the Cardinals in rushing yards (133-119), passing yards (255-122), and won the turnover battle (4-1). Those stats alone should entail a win, but they didn’t. At this point, the Raiders have lost in every fashion possible, which should’ve led me to the breaking point. I thought it did.

However, I cooled down a little bit on Monday when my non-Raider fan friends pointed out the positives. They obviously put complete blame on Janikowski, which shouldn’t be the case, but pointed out some things that describe a “scrappy” team.

Darren McFadden did play well, and is running harder than he ever has in his NFL career. He’s third in the NFL in rushing, looks healthy, and is carrying the full load without coughing up the football. Rolando McClain is showing promise on the defensive side, Nnamdi Asomugha is solid as ever, and Bruce Gradkowski gives the team energy and gets the ball to receivers in areas where they can make plays. And in the end, the Raiders had a chance to win, albeit against the dismal Arizona Cardinals.

So, I’ll hold off my tantrum for now, only because the traits of a “scrappy” team are still visible. After devastating losses such as last week’s, the traditional scrappy team always rebounds and shows heart in the following home contest. If the Raiders do so against Houston this week, I’ll refrain from doing anything drastic.

3-0 through 3
Nobody would’ve predicted the Chiefs, Bears and Steelers to be the only undefeated teams through three weeks. But here we are, three weeks in, and the Chiefs are undefeated with a plethora of playmakers and a daunting defense, the Bears are undefeated with (“gulp” would usually be used in this space) Jay Cutler at the helm, and the Steelers are undefeated with a carousel of backup quarterbacks leading the offense.

The most striking thing about these teams is that they all seem legitimate at this point. The Chiefs’ victories may have seemed a little fluky at first, but the defense is now seemingly good enough to lead the team to an AFC West crown.

Speaking of good defenses, Pittsburgh’s is undoubtedly tops in the league. Its allowed a total of 33 points through three games, allows an average of 59.7 rushing yards per game (third in the NFL), and is single-handedly leading its team to victories. There’s no telling what this team is capable of, especially once Ben Roethlisberger returns from suspension in week 5. This could conceivably be a 15-1 team.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Bears are good. The defensive line is good, the secondary tackles exceptionally, and Jay Cutler is playing well. For now. If it wasn’t for the abundance of secondary penalties and dropped interceptions by Green Bay last week, Cutler would’ve thrown at least three picks. We’ll see how long his efficiency lasts.

Cover 4
Some week 4 intrigue to chew on: SF@ATL (San Francisco’s final chance to debunk this year’s Ubiquitous Sleeper Selection); BAL@PIT (Baltimore’s chance to prove elite status/ Pittsburgh’s chance to start 4-0 with backup quarterbacks at the helm); HOU@OAK (Oakland’s last chance before I write a 2,000+ word column about the disgrace I’ve been witnessing for the past 6 years); WAS@PHI (Donovan McNabb’s return to Philadelphia against his former predecessor/ Vick’s next step towards possibly being a top quarterback and the complete quarterback that he never was in Atlanta); NE@MIA (Another primetime AFC Beast showdown. Yes, the AFC Beast. The NFC East lost its title).
Top bets of the week: PACKERS (-14.5) over Lions; FALCONS (-6.5) over 49ers; Jets (-5) over BILLS; CHARGERS (-8) over Cardinals; DOLPHINS (+1) over Patriots.